Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo remains a very popular breakout candidate. His rookie year suggests he’s good at football, and his usage should increase in Year 2. What is Okonkwo’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Chigoziem Okonkwo’s Fantasy Outlook
There’s no denying the excitement surrounding Okonkwo tempered a bit after the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins. Nevertheless, Okonkwo is still slated to be the starting tight end and should be third in targets behind Hopkins and Treylon Burks.
Okonkwo’s ceiling may be lower, but the breakout potential remains. He’s an elite athlete that if used properly, can be a huge mismatch for opposing defenses.
Last season, despite playing just 36% of the snaps, Okonkwo saw a 33.3% targets-per-route-run rate. That was second at the position, and his 3.26 yards per route run was first.
The concern with efficiency is always its sustainability in the face of increased volume. There’s no denying Okonkwo’s target share will increase this season from 10.6%. However, on a low-volume Titans passing attack, 15% may not be enough for him to be a fantasy TE1.
Last season, Tennessee had a run rate of 50% in neutral game script — seventh highest in the league. A 10.6% target share netted Okonkwo just 46 total targets; 15% would’ve given him about 68. That’s just not going to lead to Okonkwo being anything more than a random TE2.
Even if Okonkwo’s snap share doubles, that doesn’t necessarily mean his target share will. That’s especially so now that he’s competing with Hopkins and Burks for targets.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Okonkwo at His ADP?
Okonkwo’s ADP has unsurprisingly taken a dip since Hopkins signed. He’s going as the TE16, No. 147 overall. Prior to the Hopkins’ signing, he was going in the TE10-12 range.
I still believe there’s a good enough chance that he breaks out, so it’s worth taking a shot on him if you wait all the way to the end of your fantasy drafts to select a tight end.
I have Okonkwo projected for a 15% target share. That results in 51 catches for 680 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. It comes out to 7.9 PPR fantasy points per game and a TE16 finish. I also have Okonkwo ranked as the TE16.
Essentially, I couldn’t be more in line with the consensus on Okonkwo. He is fairly priced and worth the shot, but not someone fantasy managers should aggressively target.