Patrick Mahomes has a pair of MVP titles to go along with three Super Bowl wins, all of which he was labeled the Most Valuable Player of. The star of the Kansas City Chiefs won’t turn 29 years old until the middle of September and is trending toward an all-time career.
But could the best be yet to come? Could the additions Kansas City made during the offseason give this offense the potential to produce at levels we’ve never seen?
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ Offense Could Be Even Scarier This Season
The Chiefs have been an elite offense ever since Mahomes took over, but they’ve had to rely more on creativity with each passing season. The star QB has seen his aDOT (average depth of throw) decline every season of his career, not because of anything he’s incapable of doing but because of the limitations around him.
From 2018-22, Mahomes ranked as a top-five signal-caller when throwing deep (15+ air yards) in passer rating, yards per attempt, and touchdown-to-interception rate. He was one of, if not the most, feared quarterbacks when it came to stretching the field.
Of course, much of that production came with the explosive Tyreek Hill by his side, but Mahomes quieted his doubters in 2022 by posting top-seven numbers in all of those metrics after Hill took his talents to the Miami Dolphins.
Last season, however, we reached a tipping point. Mahomes finished outside of the top 20 in all of those aforementioned metrics when throwing the ball down the field, a decline that only has two reasonable explanations — either the aliens from Space Jam stole his talent, or the surrounding pieces didn’t hold up their end of the bargain.
It was the latter.
The Chicago Bears were the only team that dropped a higher percentage of deep passes, and only the New York Jets finished the season with fewer passing scores from distance. Yes, the Chiefs were able to win the Super Bowl, but it’s clear that they are aware of this shortcoming and looking to fix it.
This offseason, Kansas City brought in Hollywood Brown (half of his career touchdown receptions have come on deep passes) and spent first-round draft capital on the proud owner of the 40-yard dash record in Xavier Worthy.
Head coach Andy Reid is well aware of the optionality that these new pieces bring:
“The best part of their game is going downfield, so he’s utilizing that right now and testing it out, seeing how it works. And so far, he’s had some good connections there.”
Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is understandably giddy about the potential offense, and it didn’t take long for a highlight to go viral:
This is gonna be fun 😈@PatrickMahomes x @XavierWorthy pic.twitter.com/Gzzr1bTe5K
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) July 21, 2024
“I definitely got too excited for that play,” Nagy said. “I’ve got to contain my emotions a little bit. But the throw, the play, the execution, it’s exciting because it was really the first time that we’ve had that type of play with Xavier.”
The Chiefs won a Super Bowl last season thanks to a defense that was fifth-best in the league on a per-play basis. They reinvented themselves and conquered the quest.
What happens if this offense trends closer to what we saw in the first five seasons of the Mahomes era (their per-play offense was down 12.7% last season from 2018-22)?
What if this versatile group of pass catchers, once Rashee Rice’s YAC skills are back in the mix, makes this the best version of this offense that we’ve ever seen?