If you’re planning to bet on Week 9 NFL player props for Sunday Night Football’s intriguing Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans matchup, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Chiefs vs. Titans Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Patrick Mahomes Player Props
Patrick Mahomes has thrown at least three touchdown passes in 32 of 70 career games (46%). This year, he’s hit 3+ in four of seven contests. He’s thrown for 280+ yards in 39 career games (56%) and four times this season.
It’s hard to do justice to how locked in Mahomes has been in 2022, especially when considering his uncharacteristic struggles early last season, when he threw 10 picks in the Chiefs’ first eight games. This year, even without Tyreek Hill — or maybe because the offense has been designed to spread the ball more equitably — defenses largely have been unable to stop him.
MORE: Chiefs vs. Titans DFS Picks
The opposing Titans don’t pose much of a threat on defense, at least through the air. Mahomes, his receiving corps, and a couple of his catch-friendly running backs should be able to pick apart Tennessee en route to a 24+ point victory.
The biggest question might be whether Kansas City puts on the brakes in the second half of an easy win. But two weeks ago in San Francisco, they were up 14 points late in the fourth quarter. On third-and-six, Mahomes hit JuJu Smith-Schuster for a 45-yard score.
Yes, it was necessary, as it ended any thoughts of a Niners’ comeback. And it’s also a reminder that Mahomes might keep throwing even if victory’s largely in hand.
- Passing TD’s over 2.5
(+148) — FanDuel - Passing completions over 24.5
(-130) — DraftKings - Passing yards under 277.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Scorer first TD
(+2600) — FanDuel - Interceptions under 0.5
(-145) — BetMGM
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Player Props
The last team to beat the Titans was the Bills in Week 2. Final score: 41-7. Tennessee had no answers on defense. While none of Buffalo’s scores came on the ground, the Bills’ three-headed backfield produced a solid 89 yards on 20 carries (4.5 yards per carry).
Sometimes the best running game is a great passing game because the latter opens up the offense.
In addition to surrendering solid yardage against Buffalo, the Giants posted 238 rushing yards in Week 1. Bluntly, Tennessee’s success against the run has come in the last five games, primarily amidst positive game scripts against sub-.500 teams.
Although Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s role has diminished this season, barring an unexpected benching, he should get 8-9 carries against a defense that probably won’t have the luxury to stack the box. 35+ rushing yards seems realistic.
- Rushing yards over 25.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Jerick McKinnon Player Props
How can we be bullish about an RB who’s earned 4.5 touches per game in his last two outings? Once again, game script. I believe the Chiefs will take this one comfortably.
Jerick McKinnon has been their top backfield pass-catcher in recent weeks. We’re betting on the veteran to come through against a defense giving up the ninth-most RB receptions in the league.
- Rushing yards over 8.5
(-115) — DraftKings
- Receptions over 2.5
(+135) — DraftKings
- Receiving yards over 13.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Derrick Henry Player Props
As of late Saturday night, there aren’t many Titans players with available props. For example, Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis have only “anytime TD” options because it was unclear who would start.
Of course, this is all by design. “Anytime TD” props can be placed only one way — by betting on a player to score. We can’t bet on a player not to score. This ensures, for example, that millions of bettors don’t bet on a player not to score and then cash in if that player’s inactive.
So we’re constrained when it comes to Tennessee props, and that’s fine. Because clearly, Derrick Henry is the main (and some might say only) attraction in one of the league’s most one-dimensional offenses. The all-world RB is once again on pace for 400+ carries.
There’s one great reason to bet the “over” on his props. If we believe the Titans will keep this one close (i.e., if Henry has one of his customary great performances), then he could hit 150+ rushing yards.
But I’m putting that probability at about 20%. He’s had three straight games with 30+ touches. The 5-2 Titans can’t afford to lose him for half a season . . . again. He’s irreplaceable, and the team’s passing attack (last in the league in passing yards and tied for last in passing TDs) cannot get this team into the postseason.
And I mean that respectfully. Since the summer, I’ve warned that Tennessee’s second-half schedule is rough. They’ll need a fresh and healthy Henry to dominate against teams like the Bengals, Eagles, Chargers, and Cowboys.
So if Kansas City takes a comfortable lead into halftime, and if Henry has about 13 carries for 59 yards, we might see a lot more Dontrell Hilliard in the third quarter. And if Kansas City continues pulling away, Henry might be phased out by the late third quarter.
Again, if you believe this game will be close, then betting on another Henry blow-up performance makes sense. But I believe he’s a long shot to get the volume needed to produce big numbers.
- Rushing yards under 89.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Robert Woods Player Props
Robert Woods has double the targets and receptions of any other Tennessee receiver. This is partly due to Treylon Burks’ multi-game injury. But it’s also because Woods is the lone bright spot in the league’s worst passing attack.
At first glance, we’d want to bet the under on his receiving-yard prop. But consider that Woods’ recent muted numbers have come in victories. The Titans haven’t needed to throw much. Give the ball to Henry, get the W, and go home. Sounds easy enough.
But they’ll probably be playing from behind most of tonight. Averaging only 23 throws per game, the Titans easily could attempt 34+. I’m betting Woods will earn 7+ targets, catching at least four. That should be enough to net him 40+ yards.
- Receiving yards over 39.5
(-110) — DraftKings