If you’re looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Saturday Night Football NFL DFS picks in Week 16, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Chiefs Considerations
18 weeks ago, we might have circled this game as a potential postseason preview. At the time, all four AFC West teams looked formidable with a combined three potential Hall-of-Fame QBs and 4 potential-to-likely future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks and eight receivers with at least one 1,000+ yard season.
A lot’s changed since then, and admittedly, I was completely wrong about Kansas City’s prospects. Believing in the fierceness of the AFC West, I fervently believed the Chiefs would be whittled down to a roughly 9-7 record heading into this final matchup. No Tyreek Hill? A sub-par bell cow in Clyde Edwards-Helaire? Sure, I thought I had good reasons to be dismissive.
Instead, the Chiefs have shined, at least on offense, where they lead the league in points per game. Their all-world QB is enjoying his best campaign since 2018. Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon have turned a modest liability (their running game) into an asset. And Hill’s departure has had no materially adverse impact.
My biggest DFS questions concern how aggressively K.C. will play. If they win and the Buffalo Bills win, based on newly approved NFL rules (because of the canceled Monday Night Football game), a Chiefs-Bills matchup in the AFC title game would be played on neutral turf.
Of course, the Chiefs want to win today’s game, and they probably will. They want that first-round bye. But at what point might they put on the brakes? Give Ronald Jones some more touches? Let Justin Watson and Noah Gray get a little more run?
This is the juggling act for a team that’s battled its fair share of injuries, and which, on paper, can beat any team in the league, regardless of location — as long as they stay healthy.
Raiders Considerations
As of Friday evening, Josh Jacobs is questionable. I haven’t expected him to play all week. Doing so would risk too much for the overworked impending free agent who’s almost assured of the rushing title.
But Jarrett Stidham has plenty to play for as this franchise tries to figure out its 2023 strategy. Davante Adams is trying to join an exclusive club of receivers with 1,500+ receiving yards in multiple seasons.
Oh, and rookie Zamir White could get a lion’s share of work. One of the most talented RBs in last year’s draft, White has durability concerns. But in 2023, he could become their bell cow.
So I expect a full-throttled effort by the Raiders’ top playmakers, and perhaps White . . . if the price is right.
Top DFS Picks for Chiefs vs. Raiders
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($18,900)
Remember, the Chiefs really want to win. They need to win. It’s simply a question of their play-calling, and whether secondary receivers and other players rotate in a bit more than usual.
So while I don’t view any receivers — even the expensive Travis Kelce — as “safe,” no one is safer than the head and heart of this offense: Patrick Mahomes.
Flex: WR Davante Adams, Raiders ($11,200)
Two weeks ago, Adams was in my Steelers-Raiders lineup, right below the Captain. He’s here once again. A dominant receiver versus a beatable defense. I like his odds.
Flex: QB Jarrett Stidham, Raiders ($9,000)
Assuredly, the Raiders want to see what they have in Stidham. He should get at least another 35 throws to show them. He showed a lot of poise last week and gets a favorable matchup today. The Chiefs have surrendered the most TD passes in the NFL.
Flex: TE Darren Waller, Raiders ($5,600)
Let’s give it a go. No one questions Darren Waller’s talent. Injuries have undercut him recently. He’s a good bet for 10+ DFS points in this one, and his value as a red-zone target should not be underestimated.
Flex: WR Kadarius Toney, Chiefs ($5,000)
Kadarius Toney could be a key X-factor for the Chiefs in the postseason. Injuries have limited his ability to gel with his quarterback. This game presents a solid opportunity to work on their timing.
Flex: RB Zamir White, Raiders ($200)
With $300 remaining, we’re rolling with the rookie. Yes, White is too cheap. He should be at least $3,000. So we’ll take it. Hoping for 8+ touches and 40+ total yards for the underrated first-year RB.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.