My Behavior Bets betting model has found good value using very specific Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles betting strategies, based on the projected final outcome. The confidence in these outcomes allows me to significantly lower my risk while increasing the odds that I turn a profit on the bets I place.
This NFL season, the Behavior Bets sports betting model has turned a profit of 449.5 units with a 66.31% return on investment.* For this game, I’ll be using the Super Bowl 57 betting strategies of “dutching” to find profit opportunities in the game props.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model provided by Pikkit. Use code PFNBRETT at download.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Betting Strategies
The Chiefs are playing the Eagles in Super Bowl 57. Kansas City is projected to win, according to my model, by three points.
The Chiefs are underdogs, and that is entirely due to the fact that Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a troublesome high ankle sprain that many believe could play a major role in his ability to perform. The Eagles are favorites and have won in a convincing fashion (even if only on the scoreboard) in their last two games.
MORE: How To Bet on the Super Bowl
Yet, the study of team behavior indicates the Chiefs pull this one off. Bettors may feel the game will, in fact, be an upset victory for the Chiefs but are hamstrung by their eyes on the box scores. Said eyes may be telling you Mahomes’ ankle might be a big deal, and the Eagles have put up 30+ points in each playoff game and while not giving up more than seven.
This creates an uncomfortable situation for the bettor, who is now stuck between an either/or situation where the risk can be quite large. For these Chiefs vs. Eagles betting strategies, I selected three of the most likely margins of victory my model projected and placed bets on each of them to help spread the risk out.
Both Teams Keep it Close
The Chiefs have the best scoring behavior in the AFC this season, which is a major part of my Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction. That said, there is a reason the Chiefs are underdogs, and the question looms of whether they can keep that pace with a limited Mahomes.
In the AFC championship game, a clearly bothered Mahomes should have put those doubts to rest. Going against maybe the hottest team in the league, and one that had beaten them three consecutive times, Mahomes helped the Chiefs pull out a victory by using, of all things, his legs.
He also completed huge conversions to receivers we’ve never heard of because the top two players at the position were injured.
Over at PointsBet, there are two winning margins that, based on the Behavior Bets betting model, give bettors the projected lowest risk of turning a profit. I added one more to account for the real possibility of the Chiefs winning by a touchdown or more.
- Chiefs 1-6 points +350
- Chiefs 7-12 points +550
- Eagles 1-6 points +310
Note that even the books have one of these teams winning by less than a touchdown as the two most likely outcomes. Now, there are two ways to attack these Chiefs vs. Eagles betting strategies to walk away with a profit.
Allocate your bets proportionally and walk away with a fixed profit, or bet an equal amount on all three, and walk away with a profit based on the lowest of the odds that hit.
Allocate Your Bets Proportionately
With the first of these Super Bowl 57 betting strategies, let’s say you had $300 to wager. You would want to do the following:
- $107.53 on Chiefs by 1-6
- $118.02 on Eagles 1-6
- $74.45 on Chiefs 7-12
That would yield winnings of $483.89 if any of those three outcomes occur, and you’re taking home a net profit of $183.89. You would be rooting for the Chiefs to win by fewer than 13 points or the Eagles to win by fewer than six.
This first of two Chiefs vs. Eagles betting strategies gives you an 18-point margin in the outcome to root for.
Allocate Your Wagers Equally
With the second of these Super Bowl 57 betting strategies, again assuming you have $300 to wager, you would bet $100 equally across the three outcomes. If the lowest odds hit (Eagles 1-6 +310), you would win $410, with a $110 profit. If the highest odds came in (Chiefs 7-12), you would win $650, with a $350 profit.
- $100.00 on Chiefs by 1-6 to profit $110.00
- $100.00 on Eagles 1-6 to profit $85.00
- $100.00 on Chiefs 7-12 to profit $350.00
With this version of Chiefs vs. Eagles betting strategies, you lower your profit if it’s a close win for the Eagles but increase your profit substantially if the Chiefs win decisively but by fewer than 13 points. This is not risk-free, but it is low-risk.
Especially when aided by a model like the Behavior Bets model.