The Kansas City Chiefs are 14-1 and need one more win to lock up the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs have been to six straight AFC Championships with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback. In those seasons; Mahomes has advanced to the Super Bowl four times, winning three championships. He hasn’t let them slip past the conference’s third seed.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t been a serious contender despite being feisty for many years after Ben Roethlisberger aged out of his prime. Even at 10-5, they look similar to the not-so-scary teams of recent memory: great defense, lackluster offense, and some incredibly magical performances to get them above .500 on the season.
Needless to say, a win on Christmas would go a long way toward changing that narrative.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chiefs -3 - Moneyline
Chiefs (-162); Steelers (+136) - Over/Under
43.5 total points - Game Time
1:00 p.m ET - Location
Acrisure Stadium
Chiefs vs. Steelers Preview and Prediction
Per TruMedia, the Chiefs are tied with the 2022 Minnesota Vikings for most wins in one-score games in a season. They somehow haven’t lost any of these games, either. Mahomes practically tilts the scales and prevents Kansas City from regressing to the mean in this regard.
Speaking of one-score games, the Steelers are second behind the Chiefs in one-possession wins since last season. Kansas City is 17-5 and Pittsburgh is 15-5. This game will be a battle between the two teams that always find a way.
Surprisingly, the Steelers are already starting to see that regression. They are 6-3 this season in one-score games and rank 29th in EPA (expected points added) per play in high-leverage situations (win probability between 45 and 55%). The Chiefs rank second in this stat, just barely trailing the Buffalo Bills.
Offensively, Pittsburgh ranks 21st in EPA per play and 24th in success rate. The offense does well generating explosive plays, ranking fifth and 12th in passing and rushing explosive play rate, respectively. It faces a Kansas City defense that is excellent in stopping rushing explosives (second-best) but average against the pass (19th).
The Steelers rank 11th in EPA in likely-pass situations but 30th in likely-rush situations, a testament to their awful tendencies which hurt them a lot on first downs. In these scenarios, they average 4.4 yards per play on first down — last in the league — and have run the ball more than 27 teams.
Another way of showing their struggles on early downs is to look at their average down and distance. Pittsburgh has to convert from 7.69 yards away on third downs this season, the ninth-longest mark in the league. Despite averaging 8.2 yards per attempt on third downs; this isn’t a sustainable brand of football.
On the other hand, Kansas City ranks 14th in defensive EPA on third downs and 11th overall. The unit blitzes the fourth-most in the league and ranks sixth in pressure generated. The Steelers offense does well against both, ranking 11th in EPA when blitzed and when pressured.
Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been encouraging, ranking 14th in quick pressure rate. It’s important to take the overall pressure rate with a grain of salt because Russell Wilson and Justin Fields have combined to average 2.98 seconds to throw (ninth-most). Ironically, the Steelers rank second in EPA on throws quicker than 2.98 seconds and 28th on throws longer than that. Defenses need to let Russ cook.
The Kansas City defense has the fifth-ranked pass funnel in the league, with teams passing one percent more than expected against it. That bodes well for Pittsburgh, who should stay away from relying on the ground game.
The Chiefs rank 11th in EPA in zone coverage compared to 23rd in man coverage. Despite this clear skill gap, they run the seventh-most man compared to the 28th-most zone. Luckily for them, the Steelers rank 28th in EPA against man and 15th against zone.
Elsewhere, Kansas City finally got Hollywood Brown back. His impact was immediate. The Chiefs finished with 0.16 EPA per play and a 49% success rate; 79th- and 78th-percentile performances. They had two passes go for 20+ yards; one of which was to Brown. His return to the lineup should make this offense more explosive, a necessary boost given how few chunk gains the unit has generated.
Overall; they are still the ninth-ranked offense in EPA and fifth in success rate despite the lack of explosives. Mahomes does an absurd job in high-leverage and likely-pass situations. He ranks third in EPA per dropback among 35 quarterbacks with over 200 attempts on third down this season, too. Of all quarterbacks since 2000; Mahomes is first in EPA on third down and ranks seventh in likely-pass situations (pass probability over 50%).
Pittsburgh ranks sixth in defensive EPA, 15th in success rate, 15th at preventing passing explosives, and eighth at preventing rushing explosives. In late-down situations, the unit ranks 14th. The Steelers generally do well at preventing explosives and stopping the run, but they can’t get off the field on third down.
I think the Steelers can be competitive in Week 16, but it would require the unlikely adjustment to abandon their typical first-down tendencies.
Pairing that with the fact that Mahomes just added an explosive receiver to boost his success in high-leverage situations, I think the Chiefs will spend Christmas dinner with the No. 1 seed clinched.
My pick: Chiefs -3; Chiefs (-162)