The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Cleveland Browns in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chiefs skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Including the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes (127 career starts, 10 such wins) now has more victories when his team scores fewer than 20 points than Aaron Rodgers (258, nine such wins). That’s not so much a fantasy stat as it is proof that this team doesn’t need their All-Pro quarterback to put up All-Pro numbers.
Not yet anyway.
Talk to me in mid-January, and we’ll see where things stand, but with Isiah Pacheco taking control of this backfield last week and the ticking time bomb that is Jameis Winston, who’s to say that the plan this week isn’t “sustain drives and let Cleveland implode against our strong defense”?
Mahomes has only a pair of top-10 finishes this season, and I don’t think he adds to that total here. There are three NFC North and four AFC East QBs I’d rather click into my fantasy lineup this week than the man who might well be the best to ever do it.
What a world.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Isiah Pacheco received 70% of the running back carries for the Chiefs last week in the win over the Chargers, a role that will land him as a top-15 play for me moving forward.
This Kansas City offense ranks 25th in red-zone efficiency this season (51%), checking in behind the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals. They need the angry running stylings of Pacheco, and he seems to be checking all of the health boxes that they are putting in front of him.
This season, the Browns rank third in pace of play on the offensive end, which could result in them giving the ball back to the Chiefs on a regular basis. Pacheco gave us 16 touches last week, and I’m labeling that as something of a floor for this weekend — I think you’re safe in starting him every week moving forward.
Kareem Hunt, RB
It was a nice run. Kareem Hunt filled an important role in the middle of the season, and that was helpful, but you don’t need to hold onto him at this point.
- Week 11 at Buffalo Bills: 69.2% snap share
- Week 12 at Carolina Panthers: 54.4% snap share
- Week 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 40.3% snap share
- Week 14 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 30.8% snap share
On Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes had more rushing yards than Hunt and Samaje Perine had more targets. There isn’t a role available, and this offense isn’t exactly the juggernaut that we were hoping for.
I’m expecting Isiah Pacheco to only see his role expand the closer we get to the postseason, and any usage added to his profile takes food off Hunt’s plate.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
After a low usage debut with the Chiefs, DeAndre Hopkins has seven end-zone targets in six games and is being used in a very fantasy-friendly way.
Skeptics will point to a 44.4% catch rate over the past two weeks as an issue, but I’d argue that the 29% on-field target share in those games is more impactful and that the chemistry between him and Patrick Mahomes will take care of itself with time.
I have Nuk ranked at the top of the tier with team WR1s who carry more QB volatility, names like Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Reed, and DJ Moore.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been hovering around a 50% snap share for three weeks now, and his role has been bouncing all over the place.
- Week 12 at Panthers: 70.3% slot rate
- Week 13 vs. Raiders: 21.1% slot rate
- Week 14 vs. Chargers: 48.5% slot rate
My hope, and reason for stashing him where I can, is that this team locks him into the slot and asks him to win on the quick routes. If you want to forecast that happening before we have concrete evidence, you could be ahead of the field in a very profitable manner with the Browns allowing a league-high 10.0 yards per slot pass attempt this season.
I tend toward following median projections for my rankings and with uncertainty around Smith-Schuster’s precise role, that lands him outside of my top 50 at the position. That said, if you told me that there was a surprise player this week to catch 7-10 passes and be a key piece in DFS formats on the cheap, he’d be my pick against the top pressure-applying defense in the league.
Xavier Worthy, WR
Xavier Worthy was on the field for a season-high 83.1% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps last week against the Chargers, continuing his slow role growth that might pay off at the perfect time for loyal and/or desperate fantasy managers.
The rookie has at least four receptions in four straight games, and if the ball is in his hands, risk-taking managers will gladly let the chips fall where they may.
The Browns own the ninth-lowest deep-completion percentage. That’s a buzzkill, but when opponents connect the dots on those long throws, they do significant damage (seventh-most yards per deep completion against).
Worthy has earned just one end-zone target over his past eight games, and that keeps the range of outcomes wide. If I’m in a tight matchup or the first of a two-week matchup, I’m looking elsewhere. But if you’re chasing the upside, this is a fine flier to take.
Travis Kelce, TE
By normal human standards, a 100-catch pace with TE1 production in nearly 40% of games would be plenty, but Travis Kelce isn’t held to “normal human standards.” Expectations aside, we are also getting dangerously close to pumpkin time for this future Hall of Famer:
- 2023: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
- 2022: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
Under most circumstances, I wouldn’t have even looked back at those seasons for data like that, but what do those years have in common?
Super Bowls.
The Chiefs have won the big one in each of those seasons and their star tight end has been a massive reason why (612 yards and seven scores with a 86.8% catch rate during the playoffs). They were rewarded for managing him down the stretch and with some breathing room for the AFC’s top seed now, we could see something similar over the final month.
On the plus side, Kelce has touched the ball inside the 20-yard line multiple times in five of his past seven games, a usage rate that can keep him as a top-10 producer, even if the volume takes a hit coming home. He’s closer to TE10 than TE1 for the first time in a long time for me, but that doesn’t mean you must bench him.