The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 14. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chiefs skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 14 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Of Patrick Mahomes’ 100 wins as a starter, nine have come when scoring fewer than 20 points. Three of those wins have come this season, meaning six of his first 90 wins came in such a spot.
That’s just a fancy way of saying that, like Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, and a few others — their real-life team doesn’t require fantasy stardom to put ticks in the win column. That doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of putting on a show, of course, but it helps explain the conservative game plans and thus the underwhelming fantasy totals.
Mahomes hasn’t had a 40-yard completion since Week 5, and I’d expect him to again play things close to the vest against the NFL’s fourth-best defense by EPA. The problem in this specific spot is that those short passes aren’t going to do much damage — the Chargers are the best YAC defense in the league, allowing 10% fewer YAC than any other defense in the league.
Mahomes is my QB10 this week, and I might be too high.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Isiah Pacheco (fractured fibula) saw his first action since Week 2 and was eased into things as expected.
Chiefs RB snap shares, Week 13:
- Kareem Hunt: 40.3% (second half: 34.4%)
- Pacheco: 32.8% (second half: 40.6%)
- Samaje Perine: 26.9% (second half: 25%)
- Carson Steele: 4.5% (second half: 6.3%)
Fantasy managers obviously love to see their star back on the field. We even got a chunk play from him as he ripped off a 34-yard run that seemed to remind the internet of just how fun this back is to watch carry the rock.
While Week 13 was a step in the right direction, there are rust and workload concerns that are preventing me from ranking him as a must-start player this week. With six teams on a bye, he’s viable, but if your team is built in such a way that you aren’t in bad shape this week, I could see a world in which you’re taking the Kansas City approach and being patient.
Against the Raiders, his other seven touches picked up just 15 yards, and for the afternoon, he averaged 1.86 yards per carry after contact (at least 3.0 yards per carry after contact in each of his first two seasons).
In the first meeting with the Chargers this season, Kansas City running backs failed to record a rush gaining more than 10 yards, and in one game a season ago, Pacheco managed just 32 yards on 13 attempts in this spot (he did catch a touchdown pass as part of a Patrick Mahomes explosion).
He’s my top-ranked Chief running back this week and moving forward, but I’m in no rush to jam him into lineups this weekend.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Kareem Hunt was on the field for 40.3% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps on Friday against the Raiders, his lowest rate since joining the team and a clear sign that the plan is to work Isiah Pacheco back into a bell-cow role sooner rather than later.
Even in a limited role, the veteran back saw four targets, leaving me with some hope that he can be Jaylen Warren to Pacheco’s Najee Harris over the final month of the season. At the very least, we know that Hunt is the handcuff to have; that knowledge makes him worthy of a roster spot as the Chiefs look to lockdown the AFC’s top seed over the next month.
I’m not comfortable playing Hunt this week and think that, after a mini-bye, we will get a pretty good glimpse of how Andy Reid wants this backfield to look for the remainder of the season on Sunday.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
DeAndre Hopkins still isn’t being put on the field at the rate of a consistent asset (three straight games with a sub-60% snap share), but his role when on the field is enough to keep in lineups.
Over the past two games, a pair of way-too-close victories, Hopkins has posted an on-field target share of 27.3% with three end-zone targets. If you gave me that profile without any context, I’d assume that one, if not both, of those weeks were top-15 finishes at the position, but neither has been.
Hang in there. Physically imposing WRs have been the ones to give the Chargers trouble this season, and we’ve seen enough juice from Hopkins to still put him in that tier.
Top WR fantasy performances vs. Chargers, 2024:
- Tee Higgins, Week 11: 29.8 PPR points
- Ja’Marr Chase, Week 11: 26.5
- Calvin Ridley, Week 10: 25.4
- Calvin Austin III, Week 3: 19.5
- Cedric Tillman, Week 9: 19.5
He has big-play potential with a quarterback who is capable of putting the ball where it needs to be — he’s right with Jameson Williams and DeVonta Smith (if active) in the middle of my Flex rankings for Week 14.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Filling out your roster with a player on the field for the majority of snaps in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense is never a bad process, but with JuJu Smith-Schuster posting just three receptions on 65 routes in his three games back after missing nearly a month, I can’t express much optimism.
The Chargers allow the eighth-lowest passer rating when opponents throw to the slot, making them a tough matchup for a player who hasn’t shown much potential recently. If you’re looking long-term, each of Kansas City’s next two opponents is more vulnerable to Smith-Schuster’s route tree than the league average — he’s a hold for me.
Xavier Worthy, WR
Xavier Worthy caught a season-high five passes last week, and while consistency remains an issue, breadcrumbs of growth are slowly being laid. The burner has seen his average depth of target decline in four straight games, something that tells me that Andy Reid is encouraged by the development of his first-round pick.
Many fantasy managers look at the aDOT of a player like Worthy and want it to skyrocket. I’m different. The speed and single-play upside isn’t going anywhere; that will remain in Worthy’s profile as long as he’s healthy.
I have the utmost faith in the Reid/Patrick Mahomes tandem to take their shots, making a regressing aDOT a floor elevator to hold us over while we wait for the splash play.
The Chargers are an elite defense, but they do allow 12.5% of deep passes to go for touchdowns, the second-highest rate in the league and nearly double the NFL average. The slate-breaking potential is there, and if the lowering of his aDOT is sustained, we have the potential to Flex Worthy without the worry of a zero.
Travis Kelce, TE
On Black Friday, Travis Kelce easily led the Chiefs in catches (seven) and targets (13), a usage rate that left fantasy managers a little underwhelmed with the final result (68 scoreless yards). The spike of involvement for Noah Gray (three straight games with four receptions and six straight with at least 24 routes run) is annoying and potentially prohibitive, but not nearly enough to knock Kelce out of the starter tier moving forward.
Kelce hasn’t been a top-10 TE performer in the majority of his games this season. Although that’s not the type of note you want given the price you paid over the summer, his 6+ catches in five of six games elevates his floor that is plenty usable once you get past the elite tight ends.
Chiefs at Steelers Trends and Insights
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs are one of 32 teams in the NFL (3.1%) – they have accounted for 13.3% of the 5+ game win streaks since the start of 2022.
QB: Patrick Mahomes recorded the longest touchdown run of his career on Saturday (15 yards) and now has a 10+ yard carry in three straight games for the first time in the regular season since Weeks 1-4 last year.
Offense: Saturday was the third time this season in which they averaged 3+ points per drive (they had three such games last regular season as well).
Defense: Kansas City has allowed under 20 points in four straight games, their third-longest streak since 2016.
Fantasy: It’s been a struggle for Isiah Pacheco of late, but it hasn’t been all his fault – 0.44 yards per carry before contact over his past three games.
Betting: Since 2022, unders are 8-1 when the Chiefs play on short rest.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: From Week 9 of 2022 through Week 2 of this season, the Steelers had one losing streak – they’ve had two since.
QB: George Pickens missed three straight games, and in those contests, Russell Wilson was 10-of-26 with one touchdown and one interception when pressured (two games prior: 14-of-24 with three scores and zero picks).
Offense: Pittsburgh has turned the ball over on 7.2% of their drives at home this season (road: 9.1%).
Defense: The Steelers have allowed 7.7 yards per pass since Week 12 (Weeks 1-11: 6.9). They are 8-0 this season, when allowing under 29 yards per drive (2-5 otherwise).
Fantasy: Najee Harris has yet to reach 45 rushing yards in a loss this season and has just seven receiving yards over his past three games (two targets earned).
Betting: Since 2005, the Steelers are 8-1 ATS on a short week in Week 15 or later (9-0 outright with a +130 point differential).