The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 8. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chiefs skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 8 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Mahomes has been surpassed as the MVP favorite, something fantasy managers have known for some time now. Kansas City is winning games, they just don’t need their All-Pro signal caller to do much. Mahomes was the 12th-highest-scoring quarterback to open the season, but he hasn’t had a top-15 finish since.
In fact, his longest play on Sunday was a deceptive run that netted 33 yards along the sideline. It was the first time since the 2022 Super Bowl in which his longest play came with his legs and not his arm, further proof that Mahomes is already in do-what-it-takes-to-win mode as opposed to pile-up-numbers mode.
It’s working for Kansas City, not for us. Mahomes struggled in the Christmas Day upset against these Raiders last season (5.3 yards per pass with one touchdown and one interception), so don’t take for granted that he is destined to leverage this plus matchup.
Mahomes is a low-end QB1 this week, ranking next to Caleb Williams and Sam Darnold — a sentence I definitely thought I’d be typing in October.
That said, Mahomes’ stock should rebound in short order with the team marrying his career-high deep completion percentage with DeAndre Hopkins after the Wednesday morning trade. I’m not sure that trade impacts Week 8 at all, but it certainly will moving forward, which should trend Mahomes back toward a top-five producing quarterback.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Hunt has settled in as the lead back in Kansas City by posting a snap share north of 60% in consecutive contests, and why wouldn’t they continue to trust the veteran? All he has done in those games is turn 49 carries into 180 yards and three scores.
The lack of explosive potential is moderately annoying (none of those carries have gained more than 13 yards), but beggars can’t be choosers; if you added Hunt, you’re turning a weekly profit for the league’s best offense in terms of success rate.
The Raiders have allowed an RB to reach 15.5 fantasy points in every game this season (Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins, and Najee Harris all cleared 20 points), due in large part to them allowing the fourth-most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season.
There are plenty of sustainability questions to ask about the Chiefs, but their backfield isn’t one of them. Hunt deserves to be locked into fantasy lineups across the board until otherwise noted (my guess is that he is a top-15 option at the position until we get some sort of update on Isiah Pacheco).
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
We don’t know if Hopkins will be in the fold this week. Even if he is, we saw Amari Cooper operate in a very limited fashion last week following a deal, so sitting on your Hopkins stock is the percentage play for this week.
But moving forward? Buckle up!
Since joining the Titans, Hopkins ranks 43rd of 55 qualifiers in terms of fantasy efficiency on deep passes. You could write that off to a receiver being on the wrong side of 30 years old, but with Ridley ranking 46th on that list, it’s more likely that the struggles downfield are the result of Tennessee’s offensive environment more than anything.
For reference, Hopkins ranked 25th of 89 qualifiers during this three seasons with the Cardinals despite battling various injuries.
Mahomes is completing a career-high 53.6% of his deep passes, making this an advantageous spot for a receiver who might have more gas left in the tank than his current stat line suggests. There’s some concern with Mahomes averaging just 4.7 deep pass attempts per game (pacing for a career low with ease, career average: 7.3 such attempts).
This trade could represent an end to our efforts to try to start Xavier Worthy. The rookie burner has seen 31% of his targets (and 65.7% of his production as a pass catcher) this season come deep downfield. The Chiefs still have five games remaining against top-10 defenses in terms of passer rating allowed deep downfield, making the supporting of two splash-play threats a tall ask for a team that isn’t as open as it has been in year’s past.
Hopkins could get rolling over the next two months, but managers need to be aware that two of those tough matchups downfield come in Weeks 16-17 (the Texans and Steelers rank third and sixth, respectively, against long passes through seven weeks).
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Smith-Schuster looked like a real difference-maker in Week 5 against the Saints (seven catches on eight targets for 130 yards), the thought being that he could be a poor man’s version of Rashee Rice in this low-octane-but-efficient offense.
He, however, has fallen victim to the hamstring epidemic that is sweeping the NFL this season and was ruled out for this week on Monday, an indication that this is an injury that is going to take some time. Due to the Chiefs’ perfect record, they can operate with caution.
I’m not sure that Smith-Schuster will earn volume at a high level when healthy, but his direct path to a role in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense makes him a player to keep rostered if at all possible, even with it likely that this injury lingers beyond just this week.
Xavier Worthy, WR
This is a conservative offense, but as Worthy’s role increases, there is hope. Patrick Mahomes is completing a career-high 53.6% of his passes thrown 15+ yards down the field. The role has been the question, and while I think the team is trying to ease their rookie into things, they are quickly running out of options.
Entering last week, Worthy hadn’t posted an on-field target share of over 18.2%. In Week 7, Mahomes tried to get the ball in the hands of his explosive playmaker on 30.8% of his routes. I think we probably land somewhere in the middle of those two rates — that will be enough in more than a few spots.
But does it pay off this week? The Chiefs opened this week as a double-digit road favorite, something that only happened seven times a season ago. In those games, the favorite dominated at the level that was expected (4-2-1 against the spread). The game script may work away from this passing game, putting a premium on efficiency, something that may not be as easy as you’d assume with the Raiders allowing the seventh-fewest yards per deep pass attempt.
Worthy might have a few usable weeks remaining this season, but once Hopkins works his way into the regular mix, the former’s profile has more risk than reward.
Travis Kelce, TE
The Chiefs really want to manage Kelce, but they are running out of bodies in the short passing game. That’s the primary reason for my optimism about the future Hall of Famer for the remainder of the season.
We know that Rashee Rice is done for the season and JuJu Smith-Schuster was an early rule out for Week 8. We are angling toward Kelce’s third game with seven-plus catches over the past month. He may only have two finishes better than TE15 this season, but there’s not much you can do. Trading him for pennies on the dollar isn’t logical with the role as strong as it’s been at any point this season, and the waiver wire is a wasteland for the tight end position.
Kelce caught 11 of 14 targets against the Raiders (allowing the seventh-most yards per catch to the slot this year) last season with a 20-yard grab in both contests. He’s still deserving of a Tier 1 designation at the tight end position, even if his production has yet to reflect as much.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders Game Insights
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs haven’t lost consecutive games vs. the Raiders since 2011-12 (three straight). Kansas City’s last loss before its current 12-game win streak (including playoffs) was at home to the Raiders on Christmas Day 2023.
QB:23 quarterbacks have started all their team’s games this season. Patrick Mahomes’ TD-Int ratio (6-8) is tied for the worst out of that whole group (Matthew Stafford has thrown 3 TD to 4 Int for the Rams).
Offense: Are the Chiefs a smashmouth offense now? Kansas City has run by design on 48.8% of its plays, far and away its highest in any season since Patrick Mahomes became the starting QB (the prior high was 38.9% in 2018). That includes a 57.9% run rate on the first down, and in the first season with Mahomes, they’ve been above 50% on the first down.
Defense: The Chiefs have allowed a touchdown on just 47.4% of red zone trips, pacing them for their best rate since the 2014 team (38.9%).
Fantasy: This is a conservative offense, but as Xavier Worthy’s role increases, there is hope – Patrick Mahomes is completing a career-high 53.6% of his passes thrown 15-plus yards down the field.
Betting: Seven of Kansas City’s past eight road divisional games have come in under the projected point total, though the one exception was Week 12, 2023 … at Vegas (31-17 win with a total of 42.5 points).
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The Raiders own the worst per-game turnover differential in the league this season (-1.9).
QB: Gardner Minshew has two more games with multiple interceptions than multiple touchdown passes this season and misfired on 19 of 34 passes last week against a vulnerable Rams defense.
Offense: Brock Bowers has received 25.1% of the Raiders’ targets this season. That’s on track to be the highest target share by any rookie tight end since at least 2000 and the highest by a TE period since Mark Andrews for the 2021 Ravens (25.9%).
Defense: The Raiders own the fifth-highest sack rate on play-action attempts this season (8.9%).
Fantasy: Brock Bowers has five top-five finishes at the position this season, and after not seeing a red zone target in any of his first three games, he’s had a red zone in scoring position in every game since.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in four of Vegas’ past five home games (2-1 through seven weeks this season).
