Football is the best. But playoff football? There’s really nothing better in all of sports (if you ask me — which obviously, you are). In the same vein, football is my favorite sport to bet on … and betting on playoff football is my absolute favorite time of year. Why, you ask? Chalk. As the playoffs progress, only the strong survive.
We know who the Eagles and the Chiefs are at this point, and we know where to look for production from both teams. With less variability in play calling and a general tendency for closer games, when it comes to playoff football, teams lean most heavily on their best weapons, which keeps my betting strategy nice and simple: focus on the studs.
After all, this isn’t just the playoffs — it’s the Super Bowl.
Remember — for lines above -150, we generally don’t take these straight up (odds are too high), but we like to mix these into two or three-leg parlays. Also, in the same light, it’s worth noting that if you like several of these lines, it could be worth teasing them down a bit before combining them if you’re building a parlay.
Our Favorite Player Props and Game Lines: Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts, Anytime TD (-120)
You can choose how you want to look at this pick — and either way, you’ll end up with the same result.
- Jalen Hurts is a baller: In Super Bowl 57, Hurts went absolutely nuclear against a very similar Chiefs defense to the one he will face in Super Bowl 59. In that game, he threw for over 300 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 70 yards and three scores. Hurts is a championship-caliber QB (including at Alabama) and has proven his ability to ball on the biggest stage.
- The Chiefs HAVE to stop Saquon Barkley: If you’ve watched any football this season, you’ve heard about Barkley and his dominance with the Eagles. Well, he’s been even more dominant in the playoffs; if the Chiefs want to stay in this game, they’ll have to keep Barkley under lock and key. This will open up plenty of space for Hurts in the rushing game and passing game.
There you have it. Do I think the Eagles are going to win this game? No, frankly I don’t. But do I think Hurts can lead you to paydirt? Absolutely.
Travis Kelce, Anytime TD (+135)
If the Eagles have one weakness” in their defense, it’s their ability to lock down the TE position. As we know, the best offensive weapon the Chiefs have is their star TE, Travis Kelce.
Kelce has been Mr. Consistency over the years, especially in the postseason, where he had an NFL record 14 consecutive postseason games with 70 receiving yards come to an end versus the Bills in the AFC title game.
During Wild Card Weekend, Tucker Kraft had five catches against the Eagles. In the Divisional Round matchup, Tyler Higbee had seven grabs a and TD, and we saw Zach Ertz all over the place for the Washington Commanders in the NFC title game, with 11 receptions and over 100 yards.
This should be a tight game, and when push comes to shove, Mahomes will go to ol’ reliable. I love Kelce to score here, and I love him to be featured the entire game.
Jalen Hurts, 225+ Passing Yards (+116)
When you think about my previous argument for Hurts to score a rushing TD, it also applies to this prop as well.
The Eagles scored SEVEN rushing touchdowns in their conference championship victory over the Washington Commanders, and although the Chiefs boast a much stronger defensive front, they still have to stop Barkley, which is no easy task (on his birthday, no less).
With the Chiefs honed in on trying to contain Barkley, both Hurts and the Eagles’ pass catchers should see some room to operate. This feels like a “bend, don’t break” type of effort from the Chiefs’ defense, similar to how they operated in Super Bowl 57 (also against the Eagles), and Hurts had over 300 yards passing in that effort.
Harrison Butker, 8+ Kicking Points (-141)
The Eagles have a great defense, and their red-zone defense is even better. The Eagles have kept their opponents out of the end zone on 48.28% of their red-zone trips this season. On the flip side, the Chiefs have struggled close to the goal line, ranking 22nd in red-zone touchdown percentage (53.95%).
What does this add up to? Increased opportunity for Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker. On top of this, the Eagles’ offense has been a problem over their playoff run, and I don’t see them being slowed down too much in this one. The Chiefs need to keep pace to keep this game close which will put every potential point at a premium.
Saquon Barkley, 10+ Rushing Yards in Every Quarter (-150)
I wouldn’t be able to live with myself if I didn’t have a sprinkle on Barkley in this game. With his anytime TD prop sitting close to -200, I don’t like the juice on that straight-up. Similarly, his rushing prop is at 109.5 which is just a bit too high for my liking, against a Chiefs defense that has yet to allow a 100+ yard rusher this season.
However, one prop I love is for Barkley to have 10+ yards in each quarter. Simply put: Barkley has averaged over five rushing attempts per quarter throughout the playoffs, and I don’t care how solid the Chiefs’ defense is — there’s no way they’ll keep him under two yards per carry in this game.
Favorite Parlays
Kelce, 60+ Receiving Yards + Dallas Goedert, 50+ Receiving Yards (+188)
We are down to the final two teams, so there aren’t many weaknesses to exploit if they have made it this far. However, besides being the two best teams in football, they both have something else in common: they don’t cover tight ends very well. We talked about Kelce above, so let’s look at Goedert.
The Chiefs allowed a league-high 8.7 yards per pass thrown to the TE this season, which is 19.2% worse than the league average, and the Eagles have allowed touchdowns on 13.7% of passes thrown to TEs on the scoring half of the field, eighth-worst in football. What does this mean? Expect Goedert and Kelce to be used often in this game as the two teams try to figure each other out.
Goedert trailed only the San Francisco 49ers’ George Kittle among TEs in yards per route this season, and we all know how good Kelce can be in the postseason, having recorded 14 consecutive postseason games with 70+ receiving yards until the AFC title game. Goedert has had 4+ catches and 45+ yards in each of the Eagles playoff games thus far and has a good matchup in the Super Bowl.
With the Chiefs near the bottom in most statistical categories in covering the TE, while having to also worry about A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith, Mr. Goedert will have his day as well.
Kansas City Chiefs ML + Barkley, Anytime TD (+205)
Here it is folks — my final prediction of the 2024 season. After betting on the Chiefs in the last two Super Bowls (and having the time of my life doing so), I refuse to bet against them until I’ve been given a reason to do so.
To me, it comes down to one factor. In the biggest games and the brightest moments, the stars matter the most. Although the Eagles have a better overall roster, the Chiefs have the best player on the field: Mahomes.
The next closest bet to a “guarantee” in my book is a Barkley anytime TD. Barkley has five TDs over his last two games, and this isn’t just the Super Bowl — it’s the Super Bowl and his birthday. If I were to put in one bet for this game, it would be this parlay. Join me, as we take the path most-traveled, side by side with Mahomes and Barkley.
Note: All lines are from DraftKings and are taken at the time the article was published. Odds are subject to change after the article is published.
