The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Cleveland Browns in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chiefs and Browns skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jameis Winston, QB | CLE
Jameis Winston had one completion through the middle of October and is now the only quarterback with 40+ pass attempts in five games this season.
Never change, Jameis. Never change.
If you’re playing Winston this time of year, I admire your gumption. Either that, or you’re desperate, and there’s nothing wrong with that. It happens, and swinging for the fences is a logical approach if you believe your team is overmatched (it’s no different than an NBA team launching threes to embrace variance).
But I think you’re drawing dead in this spot. Twice a QB scored 20 fantasy points against the Chiefs this season and both of them cleared 11 points with their legs (Lamar Jackson in Week 1 and Josh Allen in Week 11). That’s not Winston’s path to upside. If the ceiling isn’t there, you’re taking on an awfully low floor in the name of fun.
Early weather projections are for some wind and some rain. Not overly prohibitive, but also not ideal, and you need to run as hot as the sun to get Winston to be a usable asset. I’d keep Winston rostered (Week 16 at Cincinnati), but I’d rather plug in current punching bag Kirk Cousins (at Raiders) or Anthony Richardson (at DEN) if he was cut loose ahead of his bye week.
Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC
Including the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes (127 career starts, 10 such wins) now has more victories when his team scores fewer than 20 points than Aaron Rodgers (258, nine such wins). That’s not so much a fantasy stat as it is proof that this team doesn’t need their All-Pro quarterback to put up All-Pro numbers.
Not yet anyway.
Talk to me in mid-January, and we’ll see where things stand, but with Isiah Pacheco taking control of this backfield last week and the ticking time bomb that is Jameis Winston, who’s to say that the plan this week isn’t “sustain drives and let Cleveland implode against our strong defense”?
Mahomes has only a pair of top-10 finishes this season, and I don’t think he adds to that total here. There are three NFC North and four AFC East QBs I’d rather click into my fantasy lineup this week than the man who might well be the best to ever do it.
What a world.
Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC
Isiah Pacheco received 70% of the running back carries for the Chiefs last week in the win over the Chargers, a role that will land him as a top-15 play for me moving forward.
This Kansas City offense ranks 25th in red-zone efficiency this season (51%), checking in behind the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals. They need the angry running stylings of Pacheco, and he seems to be checking all of the health boxes that they are putting in front of him.
This season, the Browns rank third in pace of play on the offensive end, which could result in them giving the ball back to the Chiefs on a regular basis. Pacheco gave us 16 touches last week, and I’m labeling that as something of a floor for this weekend — I think you’re safe in starting him every week moving forward.
Jerome Ford, RB | CLE
Jerome Ford out-carried Nick Chubb in the first half last week, and while I’m not comfortable labeling him as the best bet to lead this team in work moving forward, he’s worked into enough of a role to at least be added.
We know there is some versatility in this profile; with Jameis Winston on the short list of players who could lead the league in passing attempts for the rest of the season, a player like Ford could churn out some PPR value.
For now, I’m not considering Ford for my Flex spot in any league type, but the path for that change is clear, and it is why he should be on a roster in your league.
Kareem Hunt, RB | KC
It was a nice run. Kareem Hunt filled an important role in the middle of the season, and that was helpful, but you don’t need to hold onto him at this point.
- Week 11 at Buffalo Bills: 69.2% snap share
- Week 12 at Carolina Panthers: 54.4% snap share
- Week 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 40.3% snap share
- Week 14 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 30.8% snap share
On Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes had more rushing yards than Hunt and Samaje Perine had more targets. There isn’t a role available, and this offense isn’t exactly the juggernaut that we were hoping for.
I’m expecting Isiah Pacheco to only see his role expand the closer we get to the postseason, and any usage added to his profile takes food off Hunt’s plate.
Nick Chubb, RB | CLE
I can’t imagine feeling good about starting Nick Chubb in any matchup right now; that, by definition, puts him on the chopping block if you’re in desperation mode.
Chubb doesn’t have a 20-yard gain this season and has been benched for extended stretches over the past month. This offense has embraced the chaos that comes with Jameis Winston being under center, and that means a high pass rate over expectation — Chubb has just five catches this season.
The Chiefs are the third-best run defense in the league and are likely to be operating with a lead, thus dragging down Cleveland’s projected rush total even further.
It’s good to see Chubb healthy and on an NFL field, but you’re in trouble if you’re counting on him to contribute to your fantasy squad.
Cedric Tillman, WR | CLE
Cedric Tillman hasn’t practiced in consecutive weeks (concussion) and entered this week still in protocol. He was not able to clear it and will miss Week 15.
Given how productive Jerry Jeudy has been under Jameis Winston’s leadership, I worry that the deep role Tillman left won’t be there when he returns.
For the season, Tillman owns a 12.3-yard aDOT and has seen two of his three scores come on deep passes. For me, he’s the most volatile receiver in a volatile offense. I’ll pass unless I’m in the most desperate of situations.
That’s not a knock on Tillman as much as it is confidence in myself to put together a starting lineup that carries a stable enough floor where I don’t need to roll the dice on a profile like this in a tough spot in order to be competitive.
That said, I’m 100% holding onto Tillman. If you thought the Browns had to put their foot on the gas to keep up with Bo Nix on Monday night, what happens with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Tua Tagovailoa left on the schedule after this week?
Tillman isn’t the type of player I’m rushing back into lineups, but assuming health, he’s going to carry plenty of ceiling appeal during the most important stretch of the fantasy season.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC
After a low usage debut with the Chiefs, DeAndre Hopkins has seven end-zone targets in six games and is being used in a very fantasy-friendly way.
Skeptics will point to a 44.4% catch rate over the past two weeks as an issue, but I’d argue that the 29% on-field target share in those games is more impactful and that the chemistry between him and Patrick Mahomes will take care of itself with time.
I have Nuk ranked at the top of the tier with team WR1s who carry more QB volatility, names like Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Reed, and DJ Moore.
Elijah Moore, WR | CLE
Elijah Moore earned just four targets last week, and his inconsistencies in that department are what keep him on the low end of the Flex rankings at best. Despite all of the aforementioned volume in this offense, Moore’s target count has been consistently inconsistent, and that’s not going to pay the bills in a Jameis Winston offense that comes with built-in volatility as it is.
- Week 11 at New Orleans Saints: six catches on eight targets
- Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: three catches on five targets
- Week 13 at Denver Broncos: eight catches on 14 targets
- Week 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers: three catches on four targets
I’m willing to admit that the Steelers might just defend his specific role well. They are an elite defense that takes away layup targets, thus putting Moore in a tough spot. The Chiefs allow the fourth-most yards per slot pass this season, a flaw that gives me cautious optimism that the recent streak of high-volume odd-numbered weeks can continue.
Moore isn’t a must-play, but I do have him ranked ahead of other primary slot options like DeMario Douglas and Wan’Dale Robinson this week.
Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE
We got the Jameis Winston experience, both the good and the bad, all within one game last week. Jerry Jeudy cashed in a 35-yard touchdown on Cleveland’s second drive and it was easy to get excited about a second straight ceiling week from his WR1.
Not so much.
That single catch accounted for more than half of Jeudy’s Week 14 production, the result of Winston being awfully ordinary after the hot start. It’s a roller coaster ride from quarter to quarter, let alone week over week, and that means you’re never going to be in a comfortable spot. The one thing you can count on from the Browns these days is extreme volume; as long as that continues, the math suggests that starting Jeudy is the play.
Could this be a floor week? Of course. Any week can be, but a Chiefs defense that ranks better than the league average in both yards per pass and touchdown rate brings such an outcome more into focus. I’ve got Jeudy pegged as a high-end Flex play this weekend — with bye weeks behind us, I’m looking for more matchup upside when constructing my DFS lineups.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been hovering around a 50% snap share for three weeks now, and his role has been bouncing all over the place.
- Week 12 at Panthers: 70.3% slot rate
- Week 13 vs. Raiders: 21.1% slot rate
- Week 14 vs. Chargers: 48.5% slot rate
My hope, and reason for stashing him where I can, is that this team locks him into the slot and asks him to win on the quick routes. If you want to forecast that happening before we have concrete evidence, you could be ahead of the field in a very profitable manner with the Browns allowing a league-high 10.0 yards per slot pass attempt this season.
I tend toward following median projections for my rankings and with uncertainty around Smith-Schuster’s precise role, that lands him outside of my top 50 at the position. That said, if you told me that there was a surprise player this week to catch 7-10 passes and be a key piece in DFS formats on the cheap, he’d be my pick against the top pressure-applying defense in the league.
Xavier Worthy, WR | KC
Xavier Worthy was on the field for a season-high 83.1% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps last week against the Chargers, continuing his slow role growth that might pay off at the perfect time for loyal and/or desperate fantasy managers.
The rookie has at least four receptions in four straight games, and if the ball is in his hands, risk-taking managers will gladly let the chips fall where they may.
The Browns own the ninth-lowest deep-completion percentage. That’s a buzzkill, but when opponents connect the dots on those long throws, they do significant damage (seventh-most yards per deep completion against).
Worthy has earned just one end-zone target over his past eight games, and that keeps the range of outcomes wide. If I’m in a tight matchup or the first of a two-week matchup, I’m looking elsewhere. But if you’re chasing the upside, this is a fine flier to take.
David Njoku, TE | CLE
The Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce connection is art and the versatility of Trey McBride is special, but the raw athleticism of David Njoku makes him as appealing as anyone at the position despite a quarterback situation that can only be described as semi-organized chaos these days.
He flashed that potential with a late 15-yard touchdown grab over the weekend, propelling him to his second top-five finish at the position for a second straight game (and the third time in four contests). Njoku’s red zone and slot usage have spiked, two parts of a role that I weigh heavier than most.
I’m sorry, but nothing attached to Jameis Winston can be labeled as a Tier 1 asset. That said, Njoku is very much in the second tier at the tight end position and is my highest-ranked tight end in this game.
Travis Kelce, TE | KC
By normal human standards, a 100-catch pace with TE1 production in nearly 40% of games would be plenty, but Travis Kelce isn’t held to “normal human standards.” Expectations aside, we are also getting dangerously close to pumpkin time for this future Hall of Famer:
- 2023: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
- 2022: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
Under most circumstances, I wouldn’t have even looked back at those seasons for data like that, but what do those years have in common?
Super Bowls.
The Chiefs have won the big one in each of those seasons and their star tight end has been a massive reason why (612 yards and seven scores with a 86.8% catch rate during the playoffs). They were rewarded for managing him down the stretch and with some breathing room for the AFC’s top seed now, we could see something similar over the final month.
On the plus side, Kelce has touched the ball inside the 20-yard line multiple times in five of his past seven games, a usage rate that can keep him as a top-10 producer, even if the volume takes a hit coming home. He’s closer to TE10 than TE1 for the first time in a long time for me, but that doesn’t mean you must bench him.