Two years and an overtime rule change later, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills meet again in the NFL postseason. Will Josh Allen and the Bills finally get their playoff revenge over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? In our Chiefs vs. Bills predictions, our betting experts make their picks and give out their best bets.
Chiefs vs. Bills Odds
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- Spread
Bills -3 - Moneyline
Chiefs +130, Bills -150 - Total
45.5
Chiefs vs. Bills Predictions and Expert Picks
Soppe: For his career, Mahomes is 8-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog with over tickets cashing in seven of those 10 contests.
In those 10 games, the Chiefs have cleared their team total by at least eight points eight times. I’m aware that #BillsMafia will point to their Week 6 meeting last season (the Bills covered as a 1.5-point road favorite and held the Chiefs 5.75 points under expectation), but that has proven to be the exception, not the norm.
So what wins out? The potential of these proven offenses or the form of these defenses (both top five in points allowed per game since Week 13)?
Over the past 20 playoff games, with a projected total north of 45 points and a spread of no more than a field goal (in either direction), road teams are 12-7-1 ATS (11-1 outright in those 12 covers).
Pick: Chiefs ML (+130 at ESPN BET)
Bearman: After a season of doubting both teams, we’re right back where we thought we would be with a Chiefs vs. Bills playoff game.
Kansas City might’ve won the previous two playoff games between them, but they were both at home. This is Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game, and Orchard Park would certainly not be his first choice.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
The Bills are playing better than anyone right now, especially the Chiefs, despite their win over a defeated Dolphins team in the Wild Card round. Against the Bills, they won’t win settling for field goals like they did last weekend.
Much like the previous meetings between these two teams, I expect this to be another close contest, but with Buffalo heading to their first AFC Championship Game since losing to the Chiefs in the 2021 postseason.
Pick: Bills -2.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This has all of the makings of a coin flip game, so it’s really difficult to pick a side in this one. Instead, I’m going to take the under in a game featuring the two best quarterbacks in the NFL.
These offenses aren’t nearly as explosive as they were when they last played each other in the postseason two years ago, when they combined for 78 points, with 25 of them coming in the final two minutes of regulation.
Although the Bills and Chiefs were each top-10 offenses by total yards during the regular season, they have each been led by their defenses in recent weeks. In the Bills’ five-game winning streak to end the season, they were the seventh-best defense in the NFL by EPA/play. Before that, in the prior seven weeks since losing a number of key defensive players to injury, they were 21st.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offense has lacked the explosiveness we’ve been used to seeing from Patrick Mahomes and company. During the regular season, they scored just 21.8 points per game, which is more than a touchdown less than their worst scoring average in the Mahomes era.
Given the high expectations for their offense, as well as their elite defense this season, unders have gone 5-13 in 18 Chiefs games this season, including last week in their win over the Dolphins.
When these teams last played each other a few weeks ago, they scored a combined 37 points, and neither team had more than 350 yards of offense. Granted how familiar these two teams are with each other, I’m expecting a similar score this time around.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
Katz: We hit on this bet last week. We’re going back to the well once more.
I understand why sportsbooks need to keep setting Stefon Diggs’ longest reception line at 20+ yards. It corresponds with Josh Allen’s passing yardage total and Diggs’ receiving yards total.
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The same process I used last week applies this week. For those of you who may not have read last week’s blurb — or perhaps have forgotten — here it is again:
“On the season, Diggs has just 10 catches of 20+ yards. But here’s the kicker. Not one of them occurred in December (or January).
In a game with a low projected point total in bad weather, this isn’t the spot where Diggs is suddenly going to break free for a deep one. If he takes a screen or breaks a tackle on a curl, so be it. That’s the only way I see us losing this.”
This week’s game doesn’t have a low point total or bad weather, but as it turned out, neither did last week’s. The game ended up being quite high-scoring, and while it was cold, the weather was not an issue.
When these teams met in Week 14, Diggs commanded a whopping 11 targets. He caught four passes for 24 yards. I am once again expecting a bunch of underneath stuff for Diggs, meaning even if he sees high target volume, he won’t catch a pass longer than 20 yards.
Pick: Stefon Diggs longest reception under 21.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)
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