The Chicago Bears vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Monday Night Football matchup might not be the most visually appealing contest, but it does have a few essential details that make it a must-watch game this week. In the end, this could be a competitive game on the scoreboard — and we’re so football hungry that we’d watch a complete trainwreck if it’s a close game.
Chicago Bears offense vs. Pittsburgh Steelers defense
The Bears’ offense has been a dumpster fire trapped in a hurricane so far in 2021, but their fortunes shifted in Week 8 against the 49ers. Chicago finished the week with the fourth-highest expected points added per play, including the fourth-highest passing EPA/play. However, even after their excellent week, they’re still ranked 30th overall.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are 4-4 almost exclusively on the back of their defense, specifically their defensive line. From an analytical perspective, their defensive output hasn’t been incredible, but there’s no debating the worthiness of their pass rush.
Justin Fields vs. Steelers defense
The Steelers’ defensive roster construction is primed to beat the Bears’ offense. There is a better chance Justin Fields looks like his Week 7 self than his Week 8 self. With T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Cameron Heyward rushing the passer, it will not be a fun week for the rookie quarterback playing behind an invisible offensive line.
Advantage: Steelers
Bears skill-position players vs. Steelers secondary
Allen Robinson isn’t what he once was, and his on-field relationship with Fields needs fine-tuning. Darnell Mooney is the top dog in the Bears’ receiving corps at this point. Aside from them, Marquise Goodwin offers speed on the field, but the former Olympic runner doesn’t bring much else to the party.
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Losing Mike Hilton and Steven Nelson has a massive effect on Pittsburgh’s secondary, but the defense has survived thanks to the pass rush. Cornerbacks Joe Haden and Cameron Sutton aren’t playing bad football, but this unit has lost the freedom it once had. Heck, even Minkah Fitzpatrick has struggled in 2021. He’s playing tighter, and it’s hurt his ability as a run defender and in coverage.
Advantage: Bears
Bears offensive line vs. Steelers defensive front
This is going to be a bloodbath. If there is a more significant unit mismatch in the NFL, I’m not exactly sure what it is. The Bears have nothing to stop the onslaught of the Steelers’ pass rush. They must use boots and screens to change rushing angles as much as possible. If Pittsburgh’s defenders are able to pin their ears back, it’s over.
We’re simply counting down the days to the eventual return of Bears rookie offensive tackle Teven Jenkins. Unfortunately, the interior of Chicago’s offensive line isn’t much to write home about, either. The worst part? It isn’t just physical inability that’s haunting this OL. Communication struggles handicap the Bears up front, leading to some awfully quick sacks against their young QB.
Advantage: Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers offense vs. Chicago Bears defense
The Bears are the most fraudulent three-win team in the NFL. On offense, they’re 30th in EPA and 29th in DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric). Defensively, they’re 23rd in EPA and 18th in DVOA. They’re a well-coached defense that’s undermanned from a personnel perspective. They communicate well on the back end on most occasions but struggle from a man vs. man standpoint.
The Steelers’ offense is similarly inept. They rank 23rd in EPA/play and 21st in DVOA. Their offensive line is tough to look at, and contrary to other elderly quarterbacks, Ben Roethlisberger actually appears his age on the field.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Bears defense
I’m honestly unsure how to feel about this matchup. I’d love to talk about how the Bears’ coverage scheme shouldn’t fool Big Ben, but he seems to make several absolutely muppet-level decisions throughout a game.
There are a couple of defensive playmakers still kicking for the Bears, though. Unfortunately, that list does not include Khalil Mack. He’s dealt with a foot injury since Week 3, and bringing him back for one game before Chicago’s bye week doesn’t seem like an intelligent organizational decision.
Veteran edge rusher Robert Quinn has played well this season, and Jaylon Johnson is one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL.
Advantage: Push
Steelers skill position players vs. Bears secondary
The Steelers’ offensive struggles have certainly not been due to a lack of weapons. Losing famous TikToker JuJu Smith-Schuster is a brutal loss to overcome, but they still have Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool to produce as receivers.
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Rookies Pat Freiermuth — who made the biggest play of the game last week in Pittsburgh’s victory — and Najee Harris can both be options for Roethlisberger in the passing attack. Only three full-time starters throw the ball closer to the line of scrimmage on average than the veteran QB. So, the Bears really only have to worry about those short passes and downfield shots.
Advantage: Steelers
Steelers offensive line vs. Bears defensive front
The Steelers ignored losing nearly everyone on their offensive line during the offseason. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that’s probably a bad thing. It’s also a problem that drafting a first-round running back is decidedly not going to solve. It’s unfortunate because Harris is legitimately one of my favorite professional athletes.
Pittsburgh’s front five can’t get the job done. Nobody gets the ball out faster than Roethlisberger. He is the only reason we don’t talk about this offensive line the way we do some of the others that lack talent in the league.
The Bears’ interior has struggled a bit, leading to issues for linebacker Roquan Smith. Yet, Trevis Gipson and Quinn have been solid on the edges. Chicago’s front seven isn’t a strength, but it will be enough against the Steelers.
Advantage: Bears
Betting line and game prediction
As of Thursday morning, the Bears vs. Steelers game currently has a 6.5-point spread favoring the Steelers. That feels like far too much after analyzing the unit matchups.
Unfortunately for Chicago, Pittsburgh’s pass-rush unit makes a massive difference. They are true game-wreckers. Hopefully, Matt Nagy was able to self-scout during his week off and realize that going empty and forcing his rookie quarterback to make immediate decisions isn’t the best way to help the Bears’ ailing offensive line. Nevertheless, it can be difficult for a tiger to change its stripes, so my hopes aren’t high.
Chicago Bears vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction: Steelers 24, Bears 17