Calling all bettors! The Chicago Bears are a team on the upswing — because, well, they have nowhere to go but up after finishing dead last in 2022. As a result, Chicago’s odds of winning Super Bowl 58 are slim-to-none. But should we take a flyer on this uber underdog? And how will free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft impact the Bears’ chances? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago Bears Super Bowl 58 Odds and Futures
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader betting market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the top favorite (+650 odds) of winning this year’s Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were Nos. 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed. The Philadelphia Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
Entering last season, the Bears had the fourth-worst odds of winning Super Bowl 57 at +14400. Only the Seahawks, Falcons, and Texans were bigger long shots.
These days, Chicago’s odds of winning the next Super Bowl (+8000) have markedly improved. Ah, but they’re now tied for the fourth-worst odds. How can this be?
Because a lot can change between now and the NFL draft. Chicago’s fortunes are tied partly to the shaky foundation they established in 2022, and partly to how quickly they can convert that foundation (warning: forced metaphor coming . . .) into a mountain of hope.
So how should bettors respond?
Justin Fields and Other 2022 Season Takeaways
Many of us wanted to see Justin Fields turned loose in his 2021 rookie campaign. It rarely happened. He averaged only 6.1 carries per start, compared to 25.5 pass attempts. His Bears went 2-8 under his watch and 0-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less.
Then, last season, a shift. First gradual. Then, beginning in Week 6 in front of a national Thursday Night Football audience, he broke loose.
In 15 starts in the 2022 campaign, Fields averaged a whopping 10.7 rushing attempts compared to 21.2 pass attempts. In other words, on 33% of the Bears’ offensive plays in which Fields didn’t hand the ball off, he ran with it, and in the process, averaged 7.1 yards per carry — the highest clip by a QB with 20+ rushing attempts since 2017.
So to summarize, defenses knew Fields was likely to run. And they still couldn’t stop him.
Naysayers might point to this team’s 3-14 record, and the fact that they surrendered the most points in the NFL. Surely defenses were willing to sacrifice ground yards to stop Fields from making big plays downfield . . . right?
Except Fields had arguably the weakest receiving corps in the league. Cole Kmet led his teammates in targets (69), receptions (50), receiving yards (544), and receiving TDs (seven).
MORE: NFL Scouting Combine 2023 — Battle for No. 1, Justin Fields’ Future, and 3 Other Pressing Questions
As I wrote last summer, Darnell Mooney is miscast as a No. 1 WR. He’s better suited as a secondary option. And when he got hurt, Fields was forced to lean even more on Equanimeous St. Brown, Byron Pringle, and the recently acquired Chase Claypool. Not an ideal situation, to put it mildly.
Yet, the Bears were 1-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Yes, they were more competitive than the previous season. While it didn’t show up in the win-loss column, when we dig deeper, we can see how this team easily could have gone 6-11 or even 7-10.
The Bears blew leads to the Vikings and Lions with less than 2:30 remaining. They had four tries to punch the ball in from the Commanders’ 5-yard line with 52 seconds left. They lost to the Falcons on a late 53-yard field goal, on a drive where Atlanta converted on 4th-and-2.
This isn’t some overly pollyannish vision of an objectively disappointing Bears season. This franchise has major challenges to overcome, which is why they’re not expected to win next year’s title. Their defense is a major liability.
To reach the next level, Chicago’s ground game might require an upgrade, if one is even available. And as alluded to, their receiving corps is possibly two or three years away (or at least two acquisitions away) from becoming “very good.”
But for a franchise that’s never had a 4,000-yard passer or 30-TD passer — the only current team to never have a QB hit either mark — Chicago’s future is deceptively bright. Fields realistically could reach those plateaus by 2024 or 2025, because we should assume his continued development in the passing game . . . once this team gives him sufficient personnel to enhance this development.
2023 Offseason Moves
This brings us to a critically important phase in the Bears’ 2023 rebuild. At this time, betting on them to win Super Bowl 58 seems like an unnecessary risk. However, a few high-impact moves could put them on a trajectory to compete in the NFC North.
MORE: Chicago Bears Offseason Preview 2023 — Free Agents, Cut Candidates, and Team Needs
If Chicago does markedly improve this offseason, then surely we’ll see their odds spike — perhaps into the +5500 to +6500 range. More realistically, they’ll probably settle in the +9000 to +10000 range.
NFL Free Agency
March 10 Update: DJ Moore is a Bear! An incredible trade with the Panthers sends Chicago their first true alpha receiver since peak Allen Robinson. Candidly, I don’t know how they pulled it off. Paired with Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, and Cole Kmet, this becomes an above-average receiving corps if Fields continues developing as a passer.
As a result, the Bears’ odds of winning Super Bowl 58 jumped from +8000 to +7000. Assuredly, with the draft capital they possess, those odds should continue to improve.
March 16 Update: D’Onta Foreman gives this backfield a needed boost after the departure of David Montgomery. While this shouldn’t materially impact their postseason odds, at a minimum their floor is more secure with two mid-range starting RBs rostered, and it gives them more flexibility in the draft to beef up their defense.
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on other key Bears arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to win it all.
NFL Draft
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Bears draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any instant-impact players who could help catapult them to division-frontrunner status.