The Chicago Bears will face the Green Bay Packers in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bears skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Caleb Williams, QB
Caleb Williams was the QB1 in Week 6 but hasn’t been a top-20 option since and is running out of time to prove himself as a redraft option for 2024.
I still think the future is bright, and that can be true even if the present is murky at best. The Packers are coming off of their bye and own the sixth-lowest opponent passer rating on deep balls. I’m not confident that the rookie will dink-and-dunk his way to glory, and this opportunistic defense is going to make chunk plays difficult to come by.
D’Andre Swift, RB
D’Andre Swift has at least 16 carries in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL, allowing him to retain value. I think what we’ve seen from Swift up to this point (3.1% production over expectation) is about what we can expect, and while there are red flags in this profile, the matchup against the 28th-ranked EPA run defense is more than enough to justify starting a running back whose role is safe.
The Bears have gone 22 straight drives without a touchdown. If you remove two outlier carries from Swift this season, we are looking at a plodding back averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Still, a voluminous role in November holds value, especially in an offense that would prefer to shorten the game.
DJ Moore, WR
DJ Moore took full advantage of a favorable matchup against the Panthers in Week 5, and he doesn’t have to apologize for that. If you extend his other eight games for an entire season, we are talking about a receiver with 623 yards and two touchdowns.
That’s not a roster-worthy profile.
I understand that Moore was a star last season, but this is a completely different situation, and he doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near starting lineups. His aDOT is down 21% from last season, and that change in role hasn’t at all made him more efficient.
In 2023, Moore produced 23% over fantasy expectations. Through 10 weeks this season, he’s checking in 15.1% below expectations. Even in a strong year, he only recorded six catches across two games with the Packers. Your waiver wire may be bare, so I don’t blame you for keeping Moore on the back end of your roster — but that’s as optimistic as I can get.
Keenan Allen, WR
If not for his résumé, would Keenan Allen be as rostered as he is?
That’s a rhetorical question, in part because this is a written medium and I can’t hear your answer, and in part because the answer is clear. No. The man has turned 23 targets into just 11 catches and 119 yards during Chicago’s three-game skid. Heck, he’s yet to reach 45 receiving yards as a member of this organization — at the age of 32, we have to start asking the Father Time questions.
On the plus side, he is involved when this team gets in scoring positions, as he leads the team with seven end-zone targets this season. I could also tell you that my wife has the best handwriting in a family full of doctors … does it really matter? The Bears have reached the red zone on just 21% of their drives, a rate that ranks 31st in the league (shoutout to the Browns) and something that renders that skill close to useless.
I have Allen ranked as a fringe top-50 receiver this week, with the only saving grace being that I expect a positive game script, but you’re reaching if you’re this low in the ranks.
Rome Odunze, WR
With at least six targets in three straight games, the breadcrumbs for a Rome Odunze breakout could be on the ground, though I need to see some level of consistency from Caleb Williams before elevating the rookie receiver from nice stash to impactful Flex.
Chicago had three players reach 75 receiving yards in Week 3 — they’ve only had two players reach that mark in a game otherwise. I remain bullish on this offense for the future and believe that Odunze is their best option in both the short and long term, but don’t mistake “their best” with “your best.”
In the scope of talented receivers with uneven quarterback play, I’d rather ride the form of Calvin Ridley/Courtland Sutton or bank on a post-bye bump from Jerry Jeudy.
Cole Kmet, TE
Cole Kmet has a pair of top-two finishes at the position this season, but that sounds much more favorable than it is. Yes, it’s encouraging to know that games like that are in this profile, but we are talking about an awfully thin outlook with an inconsistent rookie under center and three receivers ahead of him in the target hierarchy.
Looking to invest in Caleb Williams’ pedigree is reasonable for a Rome Odunze-type that has a path to consistently be the first read — but Kmet isn’t that. Over the past three weeks, his 92 routes have netted just 27 yards. The floor is as low as any tight end on the board and the ceiling is nothing more than average based on current form.
If you’re really trying hard to talk yourself into Kmet, he’s caught 14 of 18 targets in his past three games against the Packers. I present the facts for you to do what you please — I think that’s grasping for straws and will be looking elsewhere in the leagues in which I am streaming the position.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Trends
Green Bay Packers
Team: Week 11 was when the Packers found their stride last season (3-6 before Week 11, finished 6-2).
QB: Jordan Love has completed just two-of-10 red zone passes over his last two games (prior: 19-28, 67.9%).
Offense: The Packers picked up 58.3% of their third downs in Week 6’s win over the Cardinals. In Week 7, they converted 40% of their chances, in Week 8 27.3%, and in Week 9 just 25%.
Defense: Green Bay has allowed a first down on just 33% of third downs this season, their best rate since 2006 (32.6%).
Fantasy: You’re not alone if you think Jayden Reed is difficult to nail down. Not only am I in your camp, but it would appear that the Packers are as well.
- Week 6 vs. Arizona Cardinals: -1.8 aDOT
- Week 7 vs. Houston Texans: 9.0 aDOT
- Week 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.0 aDOT
- Week 9 vs. Detroit Lions: 15.2 aDOT
Betting: The Packers have covered four straight road divisional games, with all four of those games going over the total.
Chicago Bears
Team: The Bears have lost 10 straight vs. the Packers, tied for the longest losing streak by either team in this series (the Bears also lost 10 straight to Green Bay from 1994-98).
QB: Caleb Williams has been pressured on 46.3% of his dropbacks since returning from a bye in Week 8, the second-highest of any player in that span behind C.J. Stroud. When pressured in that span, Williams has more sacks taken (18) than completions (13).
Offense: The Bears have gone 23 straight offensive drives without a TD dating back to Week 8. That’s tied for the second-longest streak this year behind a 30-drive streak from the Miami Dolphins from Weeks 2-4.
Defense: Chicago allows a touchdown on 14.3% of drives (second-best in the league, behind only the Chargers).
Fantasy: Chicago had three players reach 75 receiving yards in Week 3 – they’ve only had two players reach that mark in a game otherwise.
Betting: The Bears are 4-13 ATS (23.5%) in their past 17 divisional games.