In a classic case of not judging a book by its cover, both the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks rank in the top 10 in total defense this season. In Week 5, both are playing at home and are facing opponents with less-than-impressive offenses.
However, the Seahawks are coming off a major disappointment defensively last week, while the Bears have consistently been solid throughout the season.
Here’s a look at the fantasy football outlook for each defense this week and where managers should be looking in Week 5.
Should You Start the Bears or Seahawks Defense This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s consensus rankings say that the Bears are the defense to start. They are projected to finish with 9.5 fantasy points, which outperforms the Seahawks’ defense (7.0 points).
My ranking of these two defenses aligns with the consensus. Chicago has simply been more consistent defensively over the first month of the season than Seattle has.
Bears Week 5 Fantasy Outlook
While many eyes continue to be focused on the No. 1 pick, quarterback Caleb Williams, some of them should be looking at the Bears’ defense because this unit is turning into one of the league’s best.
The Bears defense is currently allowing 3.0 yards per play on early downs when they have their Base 4-3 personnel in. Best in the NFL, per @NextGenStats.
The league average is 4.9 yards. pic.twitter.com/a5d18AzzD8
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 30, 2024
Chicago is one of only five teams that is holding opponents under 300 total yards per game (295.5, 10th in NFL) and 20 points per game (18.8, eighth).
In addition, Chicago ranks in the top 10 in passing touchdowns allowed (2, tied-third), passer rating (69.0, second), and third-down defense (29.4%, 5th). The Bears also have the league’s longest active streak of holding opponents to 21 points or less, currently at 10 straight games.
The Bears are getting solid performances from plays up front — Montez Sweat has two sacks, two quarterback hits, and three tackles for loss — and in the secondary. Jaylen Johnson has a team-high two interceptions and four passes defensed.
In terms of fantasy, Chicago ranks fourth in scoring, with an average of 10.2 points per game from its defense and special teams.
One concern for fantasy managers choosing the Bears this week is the opponent. Even though Chicago is facing a Carolina Panthers team that ranks in the bottom 10 in total offense (291 yards per game, 23rd), they’ve been a different offense the last two weeks since making the change at quarterback from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton.
After not gaining 200 total yards in each of its first two games, Carolina is averaging 406 and 30 points per game over its last two contests.
Still, I’m comfortable taking the Bears’ defense at home, given the consistent way they have dominated opponents this season.
Seahawks Week 5 Fantasy Outlook
After allowing 43 points total in their first three games, the Seahawks allowed 42 in their Week 4 loss to the Detroit Lions. While it certainly is no shame to lose to the Lions and their explosive offense, giving up 42 points in a game is an eye-opener for any defense.
The Seahawks could also use a takeaway here and there. Seattle forced three turnovers in Week 1 vs. the Denver Broncos, but they haven’t had a takeaway since. It’s also worth noting that the Seahawks’ first three games came against offenses that each currently rank in the bottom seven of the NFL: Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins.
The good news for those looking to play Seattle’s defense this week is that its opponent, the New York Giants, has major injury problems on offense. The two biggest are wide receiver Malik Nabers, who is out with a concussion, and running back Devin Singletary, who is doubtful with a groin injury.
New York, which already averages less than 300 total yards a game (296.8), could be in for a rough afternoon offensively.
