The Chicago Bears fantasy preview takes a look at DJ Moore’s value with Justin Fields back, while the Minnesota Vikings‘ fantasy football outlook focuses on their receiver core in another week without Justin Jefferson.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
- Spread: Vikings -3.5
- Total: 43
- Bears implied points: 19.8
- Vikings implied points: 23.3
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields: There is nothing wrong with a QB8 finish in a return to action, and that is exactly what Fields gave his loyal fantasy managers last week, thanks to 18 rush attempts for 104 yards.
He now has three top 10s on his 2023 ledger, along with three finishes as QB20 or worse. You know what you’re signing up for.
He was accurate, going 16-of-23 through the air, but 169 yards and only one touchdown is a tough way to live if the rushing numbers are anything short of elite.
These Vikings hurt Fields back in Week 6, so if you’re big into narrative games, this is a fine spot for you. If you’re a more numbers-driven manager like me, Minnesota’s league-leading blitz rate is something I want to target. It forces Fields to either make quick decisions with his arm or trust his legs.
I’m OK with either of those results, considering that he has seen the seventh-lowest percentage of his passes dropped this season. There is a path for a ceiling game in this spot as much as there is significant risk about a defense trending in the right direction.
I’m sitting on the fence a bit here and ranking Fields as my QB14. I think he has as good a shot of finishing as QB8 as he does QB20, making his mean outcome right where I have him ranked.
Joshua Dobbs: With a rushing touchdown in all three games with the Vikings, Dobbs has carved out a strong production floor — one that, in theory, should only be elevated by the likely return of WR Justin Jefferson (even if Jefferson doesn’t care about your fantasy team).
There’s a lot to like about this matchup, and that has me ranking Fields and Dobbs side-by-side. The Bears are the worst red zone defense in the league and see 75.6% of opponent yards come through the air.
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If the Vikings truly unleash Dobbs, we could see a top-10 performance. If there is a learning curve with the WR1 back and Chicago trying to control the clock, Dobbs could leave fantasy managers wanting more. He has yet to complete a 30-yard pass as a member of the Vikings — a level of passing limitation that worries me just enough to keep him outside of my starting ranks in anything but very deep formats.
Running Backs
Khalil Herbert: After missing five games with an ankle/shin injury, Herbert picked up just 41 yards on 18 touches in Detroit. It was an underwhelming effort, but I was encouraged by the role, even if part of it was the result of an early RB D’Onta Foreman injury.
It’s clear that Chicago wants to find creative ways to prevent the number of throws for Fields, and as long as that is the game plan, the leadback in this offense is going to have value.
Following the Foreman injury, Herbert held a slim 20-16 snap edge over RB Roschon Johnson. I think that gap widens, given the usage patterns of both this season – not to mention Herbert being a week removed from the injury that cost him over a month.
Even with me projecting him for the lead role in this backfield, Herbert sits outside of my top 30 at the position in a week where no teams are on a bye. Herbert is a gas station slice of pizza — it might be enough to get you through the week, but there’s not a ton of upside in this option.
D’Onta Foreman: An ankle injury resulted in an early exit last week, but not before the Bears showed their hand in considering him their lead back.
Foreman received the first running back carry and was on the field for eight of 10 snaps during the first drive. Now, it’s possible that this was destined to be a drive-by-drive backfield situation, but at the very least, we know that the plan going in was in Foreman’s favor over Herbert’s.
The injury, however, likely changes that, as he is no longer the healthiest of the two-down backs on this roster. If Foreman can play this week, I’ll have him ranked behind Herbert and in the “Ty Chandler/Tyler Allgeier” range of running back with a 10-ish touch projection with limited upside.
Roschon Johnson: I’m a fan of paying attention to what teams are telling you with their actions. Coach speak can be misleading, but when it comes to evaluating how teams use their players, a pretty clear picture can be painted about the internal feel.
That is until injuries require you to pivot. The Bears have made every effort this season to keep Johnson in a third-down role, but with Foreman and Herbert unable to stay off the injury report, he is working his way toward an increase in usage.
I’m waiting and seeing. If this backfield was 100% healthy, I’d have no interest in hanging onto the rookie, but that’s not the case. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season and has an 82.7% catch rate.
The blitz-heavy Vikings could leave them susceptible to well-run screen passes, and if Johnson can get into space, the most productive week of his young career is possible. Keep an eye on the injury report, but there’s a world in which Johnson is a live Flex play this week, despite not having a 10-touch game since September.
Alexander Mattison: At this time last week, we weren’t sure that Mattison (concussion) would play, but he cleared through all protocols and handled 19 touches in the loss against the Denver Broncos with a 48-23 snap edge over Ty Chandler and 100% of the goal line snaps.
Last week was the third consecutive healthy game in which he cleared 15 carries, making him a safe volume play at the very least in an offense that we only expect to get better down the stretch. His losing a fumble last week didn’t seem to impact how he was being used, elevating my optimism that his role is here to stay.
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By no means should you consider Mattison a league winner. His having 148 carries this season without a 20-yarder speaks to his limited per-carry ceiling. That’s OK. Not every player has to have the ability to break your matchup open.
He’s ranked lower this week than most for me (low-end Flex play) due to the matchup with the best per-carry run defense in the NFL. But after Minnesota’s Week 13 bye, I’d be comfortable in considering him an RB2 for the remainder of the fantasy season.
Ty Chandler: Chandler played well behind Mattison, but getting a touch on 60.9% of his touches is at least encouraging in the sense that the team thinks highly enough of him to keep him involved, even as a secondary option in the run game.
Chandler deserves to be rostered in a Tyler Allgeier sort of way — he’s going to get consistent work, and that’s fine in a “break glass” sort of situation if you’re dealing with depth issues. But as long as the starter is healthy, he isn’t going to project as a viable Flex play.
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The four catches are something I’m viewing as an outlier. There isn’t much receiver work in his prospect profile, and with Jefferson due back, this sort of usage is unlikely to remain.
Wide Receivers
DJ Moore: The Bears wanted to keep Fields comfortable, and that resulted in more rush attempts (18) than completions (16). Even with the limited number of throws, Moore had no problem paying off loyal fantasy managers who went back to him in Fields’ return to action.
In the heartbreaking loss to the Detroit Lions, Moore earned 40.9% of the targets, bumping his rate during Fields’ past three healthy games to a robust 35.4%. The lack of volume and matchup against an improving defense would normally scare me, but given the eyes that Fields has for the WR1 that he hasn’t had in the past, Moore is a WR2 for me this week.
I’m comfortable in playing him ahead of star receivers like Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf, and Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin.
Justin Jefferson: There are returns to action to tread cautiously around. Situations where a fringe skill guy comes back in a tough matchup (Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson back in October) or the replacement option is thriving (Bears RB Khalil Herbert last week). In certain spots, proceeding with caution makes sense.
This is not one of those spots.
Jefferson was a WR1 in his four games before getting hurt and has been consistent in saying that he will not return to action until he’s 100% healthy.
Well, he’s back now (probably). For his career, Jefferson averages nearly 100 yards and scores once every two games. If I lose this week because I trusted the receiver off to the best start to a career in NFL history, so be it. He says he’s healthy, and I say he’s facing a pass defense that ranks bottom 10 in yards per attempt, yards, and passer rating.
Welcome back, Jefferson. Now, let’s get to work.
Editor’s note: Jefferson will wait through the Vikings bye in Week 13 to return to the lineup. He has been ruled out for this matchup.
Jordan Addison: I hate to be the wet blanket on a promising young talent, but that’s the path I’m assuming with Jefferson set to return.
In the three games with Dobbs, the most targeted player next to Addison and T.J. Hockenson saw a 12.5% target share. That’s not going to get it done – not in a passing game that is averaging 32 attempts per game (that would project for four targets).
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I’d keep Addison rostered until Jefferson proves his health, but he’s not near my lineup, even in a positive matchup on Monday night.
K.J. Osborn: Running a route on every single dropback is usually a good thing, but the fact that Osborn did that and only managed to earn two targets is a concern.
We came into this season thinking that Osborn would push Addison for the WR2 role next to Jefferson. That dream is gone and with Jefferson likely back this week, Osborn (under 50 yards in nine of 10 games) can safely be cut in all formats.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: You can do better. Kmet has failed to clear 55 yards in eight of 10 games this season, and that means you need a score from an offense that rarely threatens the end zone through the air.
He’s very much in the TE blob where TE13-TE22 are separated by next to nothing. I worry about the scoring equity in this offense, and for a player without a 25-yard grab in over a calendar year, he’s relegated to the no-trust zone.
I’d rather roll the dice on a player with a higher team throw rate (Logan Thomas) or a unique TE with access to the upside (Taysom Hill).
T.J. Hockenson: After a nice month of production, Hockenson underwhelmed last week (four catches for 55 yards). Don’t sweat it. Dobbs was looking his way on the final possession as the Vikings tried to mount a game-winning drive, and that level of confidence is next to impossible to find at the TE position (especially with Mark Andrews out for the remainder of the season).
Jefferson’s return will certainly impact his usage some, but as mentioned, he still figures to be plenty involved with Addison’s role most impacted. In Week 6, Hockenson saw 26.7% of the targets and accounted for 28.6% of the receptions against the Bears (no Jefferson).
I’d dial back those expectations some, but we have proof that he can find space to operate, and that makes another solid day at the office more than likely!
Should You Start Justin Fields or Justin Herbert?
The upside of Fields is enough of a carrot for me to chase over Justin Herbert in a brutal spot. We know what the Fields profile and that inspires more confidence than a player in Herbert who is without a reliable secondary pass catcher (WR/TE) and has completed just 60.4% of his passes this month.
Both of these QBs offer significant upside, the matchups this week dictate that Fields has a greater chance at accessing that best-case scenario.
Should You Start DJ Moore or Zay Flowers?
Flowers is banged up, but even if he plays, I prefer Moore and his consistently impressive target share under Fields. Do I think the rookie is a future star? I do, but we haven’t seen enough of a ceiling to justify playing a compromised version of him over a clear-cut WR1 in Moore.
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