The Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings meet on Monday Night Football at opposite ends of the success spectrum. Although Minnesota purged many veteran contracts this offseason, lost their best player to injured reserve, and then their quarterback for the season, they’re currently sitting as the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs. The Bears…. are not.
However, that doesn’t mean that Monday night will be a forgettable matchup. Chicago nearly beat Detroit last week in Justin Fields’ first game back, and the young QB has everything to prove in the waning weeks of the season.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Predictions
What does the PFN selection committee think of Monday’s battle?
- Beasley: Vikings
- Bearman: Vikings
- Miller: Vikings
- Morrison: Vikings
- Robinson: Vikings
Protecting Justin Fields
According to Inside Edge, no defense in the NFL has blitzed more than the Vikings have in 2023. The Bears’ offensive line, meanwhile, is not known for its ability to protect Fields. He’s been sacked 25 times in seven games this season.
However, the offensive line is healthier than it’s been all season. A week ago, Detroit sacked Fields just twice in their meeting.
MORE: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings
Despite spending a lot of their time blitzing, the Vikings haven’t necessarily thrived in doing so. No team allows a higher completion rate (73.6%) when sending five or more players. Minnesota is also sixth worst in yards per attempt and fifth worst in yards per coverage snap. They’re also the eighth-worst defense in EPA per play and second worst in positive EPA rate when blitzing.
Joshua Dobbs vs. Bears Defense
Joshua Dobbs has posted QBRs of 88.1, 88.3, and 58.2, respectively, since joining the Vikings. In that time, he’s faced the Falcons, Saints, and Broncos. Atlanta and New Orleans have hovered around the top 10 in defensive efficiency in 2023, while Denver is 30th but seventh since Week 7.
Dobbs is playing well against good defenses. So what will he be able to do against a Bears defense that ranks 20th in dropback EPA and 28th in dropback success rate over that same time period the Broncos have been on a tear?
The one thing that might not be in Dobbs’ favor against Chicago is his scrambling ability. The Bears’ defense won’t play with their backs to the quarterback too terribly often, giving him less free reign to attack when receivers aren’t open or the protection breaks down.
$23.3 Million
That’s what Fields’ fifth-year option will cost the Bears should they decide to exercise the option. Every dropback, run, scramble, and sack is being evaluated by the Bears organization at the moment. They have until May to decide whether or not they want to pick up the option, and that decision looms large.
But it also might not. This could be the last season we see Fields in a Bears uniform.
Let’s look at the logistics of this for a minute. Currently, Chicago holds the first and fourth picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Shoutout to the train wreck of an organization the Carolina Panthers are for that gift.
Take emotional investment out of this for a second and think about it logically. How do teams win Super Bowls? They either have a rookie-contract quarterback grossly overperforming that deal, or they have an elite-tier passer on the roster.
No matter how talented we believe Fields could be in the right situation, nothing that’s happened in Chicago leads us to believe they can consistently contend with Fields. The reality is they’re still rebuilding. And they have potentially two top-five picks to play with.
But teams like the Jets, Raiders, Saints, Falcons, and even the Vikings could be in the QB market this offseason, but they don’t have the draft capital to secure either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
MORE: Full List of Bears 2024 Draft Picks
A big end-of-the-season performance from Fields could potentially net them another first-rounder, which they could then use in their own rebuild. From a team-building perspective, trading Fields is the most logical scenario. But the sword of destiny has two edges.
If Fields plays well and Chicago opts to keep him, they can hold that first pick for ransom, get an unbelievable return, pick up his option, and still have two years of relatively inexpensive service from him to evaluate around a more talented roster.
Even if they trade down one pick, they’ll receive massive compensation and still — if they draft correctly — select the best player in the class to pair with DJ Moore.
Marvin Harrison Jr.‘s downfield receiving ability and Fields’ downfield passing ability?
Bears fans should like the ring of that.
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