The Chicago Bears‘ outlook for fantasy football details the late-season production of Khalil Herbert, while the Green Bay Packers‘ fantasy preview takes a look at the spiking value of Jordan Love.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Packers -3
- Total: 44
- Bears implied points: 20.5
- Packers implied points: 23.5
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields: If only we had an example of the Packers playing a divisional rival that had nothing on the line in Week 18 with their playoff fate on the line.
Oh wait, there was last season when the already-eliminated Lions knocked the Packers out of the playoff mix. In Lambeau. Winning for the fifth time in six games to close the season.
The 2023 Bears are not making the playoffs and are playing in Lambeau having won four of five games. Weird.
Whether Fields is looking to impress his current or future employer down the stretch, he’s succeeding. He’s run for at least 45 yards in seven of eight games and has been a top-five producer at the position in three of his past four.
I see no reason to forecast anything different this week against a Packers defense that can be suspect at times and an offense that has put up 30 points in consecutive games (their first 30-point efforts since the 38-20 beatdown of these Bears in Week 1).
Jordan Love: I’ve been as critical as anyone on Love this season. And while I still think he has plenty of room for further growth, there’s simply no denying that he looks in control right now.
Week 1 meeting: QB3
The Giants of all teams are the only ones to hold Love without multiple TD passes since early October, and the efficiency has followed.
Weeks 2-8: 7+ yards per pass in 0 of 6 games
Week 9-17: 7+ yards per pass in 8 of 9 games
Love’s been operating for much of the season without a fully healthy Christian Watson and a developing Jayden Reed. Could the stars align for a Packers playoff berth by way of a Love explosion against the defense that allows the second-highest percentage of yards to be gained through the air?
I’m proceeding with a little caution, but he’s a viable QB in all formats.
Running Backs
Khalil Herbert: With back-to-back top-10 finishes, Herbert is roughly four months late on my preseason optimism. That said, he’s looked good enough lately for the Bears to scratch D’Onta Foreman last week, leaving Herbert as the unquestioned bell cow in an offense that needs to run the ball to maximize Fields’ impact.
The Packers allow 38.3% of opponent yards to be picked up on the ground, the fifth-highest rate in the league and a driving force behind my RB2 ranking of Herbert this week.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Remember that the Lions win over the Packers in Week 18 which I mentioned earlier? They ran Jamaal Williams 16 times for 72 yards and a pair of scores, per the Week 18 Cheat Sheet. If the Bears are going to pull off this upset, Herbert will be a big part of it.
Roschon Johnson: The rookie cashed in a carry from two yards out last week on his way to his second-best finish of the season (RB18). His best finish?
Week 1 (RB12) against these Packers.
In that game against Green Bay, Johnson caught six passes and found the end zone. I’m not sure he can replicate that success this time around, but could he do one of those things?
I think it’s possible. He’s my favorite of the secondary backs this week (ahead of the Chase Browns and Tyler Allgeiers of the world) and lands just inside of my top 35 at the position.
Aaron Jones: We thought Jones would have some RB1 appeal entering the season, and he fueled that fire with a 127-yard, two-touchdown season-opening win at Soldier Field.
Of course, the rest of the season hasn’t gone his way, but Jones has finished as a viable fantasy starter in all three games back from injury. Now, he gets this season’s worst red-zone defense. (Full disclosure: Chicago doesn’t allow many red-zone trips, but 70.7% of those drives do end in touchdowns.)
Jones is in the RB1 conversation this week, and if you want DFS leverage off of what I assume will be popular Love stacks, you have my stamp of approval!
AJ Dillon: The drafting of Love to a team that had Aaron Rodgers now looks very defensible — the same cannot be said about Dillon.
The fourth-year man has seen his ypc drop every season and has a total of 14 touches (zero targets) over the past two weeks as Jones has come on strong.
MORE: Fantasy Injury Update — Miles Sanders, AJ Dillon, and Aaron Jones Impacting Week 18 Rankings
Dillon is not to be near starting lineups this week, and until we have evidence proving otherwise, is he not just a bigger version of Joshua Kelley with more draft capital?
Dillon’s not a handcuff I’m prioritizing next season.
Wide Receivers
DJ Moore: Say what you will about Fields as a passer — his connection with Moore is something special. His WR1 has seen at least 10 targets in three of his past five games and has a 30+ yard catch in four of his past six.
Moore’s first season in Chicago has seen him set career highs in yards (1,300) and touchdowns (eight). There’s nothing about this connection that looks fluky to me, which means you’re not thinking twice about whether or not you should have Moore active.
The 2024 conversation is an interesting one, as it largely hinges on what the Bears elect to do at the draft. With Fields under center, Moore is a part of the WR1 conversation. Without Fields, he falls to the back end of the WR2 tier for me.
Christian Watson: It’s been more than a month since Watson last played due to a lingering hamstring injury, but there is cautious optimism regarding his status for Week 18 (practiced in full on Wednesday).
In theory, he’s a good fit for what the Packers want to do in terms of stretching the field. In reality, the health concerns are real.
I have Watson ranked as a shaky Flex play this week as I hedge his talent with the injury.
I like this matchup for him, but if Reed is active and Jones continues to produce on the ground, I worry about the floor that a low-target count could create.
Jayden Reed: The impressive rookie was “pretty sore” following Sunday night’s dismantling of the Vikings, making his status one to watch with a close eye.
Given the importance of this game, limited practice reps are to be expected for Reed. He’s been banged up for a month now, and the long NFL season can wear down rookies in a hurry.
That said, Reed has reached the “if he plays, you play him” tier for me. He’s earned 26 targets over the past three weeks and continues to blend spectacular catch potential with YAC upside. I don’t want to say he’s Rashee Rice with a lesser quarterback, but I won’t deny it, either.
Romeo Doubs: If either Reed or Watson sits, Doubs immediately jumps onto my DFS radar and would be ranked as a low-end Flex play.
We saw him earn targets in mass earlier this season (25 targets over two weeks). We saw him score twice against these Bears in the season opener. And we’ve seen Doubs post a top-20 contested catch rate this season.
This kid can play, but I’m not digging down to the WR3 in an offense with an efficient run game and a capable pass-catching TE. Doubs is off my radar for now — but that could change in a significant way if my feel on Watson and/or Reed is inaccurate.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: Chicago’s promising tight end was limited last week with a knee injury, resulting in just 13 targetless snaps being played against the Falcons.
Despite hardly practicing, the team felt he was healthy enough to play last week, so I’m assuming he is active this week and plays in a more fantasy-friendly fashion — should he avoid any setbacks.
MORE: Soppe’s Early Fantasy Football Week 18 TE Rankings
Kmet was seeing 6.8 targets per game in his eight games before the underwhelming Week 17. Assuming that health isn’t a major concern, he’s safely inside my top 10 at the position in this weird week — one spot behind …
Tucker Kraft: Four straight games north of 45 receiving yards is noteworthy for the TE position, especially when it comes from an athletic rookie playing in an offense that lacks an alpha receiver.
In those four contests, Kraft owns an 81.8% catch rate and has a 27+ yard catch in three of them. In a week where the ugly gets uglier at the TE position with Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Isaiah Likely, among other weekly lineup locks who don’t have any team motivation this weekend, Kraft elevates to my TE6!
Luke Musgrave (abdomen) returns (last played in Week 11), but my feeling for that situation may be that it would be a part of a small ramp-up to have him closer to full speed should this team make the playoffs.
Kraft has been great while filling in, making it less likely that Green Bay moves heaven and Earth to force Musgrave back into a full-time role after an extended absence.
Trending Start/Sit Searches
Did you know that we have a Start/Sit Optimizer here at Pro Football Network?! It’s completely free to use, and it allows you to enter in up to six players to find the best option to plug into your starting lineup!
It also allows us to see the most popular trending searches, and we’ve jotted some of them down here to help provide some clarity!
Should You Start Jerome Ford or Khalil Herbert?
The Bears are playing out the string, but they haven’t been shy in loading Herbert up with as much volume as he can handle. I prefer that role over that of Jerome Ford for a team that is simply trying to stay healthy for the playoffs.
Projecting another 20+ touches for Herbert is a bit optimistic, but he’s the better bet for 15 touches, and that’s enough.
Should You Start Tee Higgins or Christian Watson?
All signs point to Watson playing this week, and in a spot like this that features two risky receivers, give me the play whose team is motivated.
Watson is far from perfect, but he did score in three straight games before the hamstring injury, a form that gives me hope for him as a Flex option.
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