Chase Edmonds almost gave fantasy managers everything they wanted in 2021 after many drafted him ahead of James Conner. But a high ankle sprain and Conner’s mind-blowingly sustained offensive outburst pushed Edmonds into the background for much of the season. Now that the Miami Dolphins have reportedly signed Edmonds to a two-year, $12.6 million contract in free agency, what is his dynasty fantasy football outlook ahead of 2022, and what impact will this move have on his former and new teams?
Chase Edmonds’ dynasty fantasy outlook
After flashing as a backup, Edmonds entered the 2021 season as the Arizona Cardinals’ likely 1A back alongside Conner. Playing in the final year of his first NFL contract, the former fourth-round pick was coming off an impressive 2020 campaign that included 53 receptions and a healthy 4.6 yards per carry while complementing starter Kenyan Drake.
In the first half of the season, Edmonds didn’t disappoint on the field, though that didn’t translate entirely in fantasy. Through Week 8, he had 75 carries for 427 yards (5.7 ypc) and a score, along with a 30-211-0 receiving line. Then, a high ankle sprain in Week 9 knocked him out for four games. Conner seized control, and the rest was history — though Edmonds finished pretty strong in Weeks 16 and 17 while Conner missed time.
Edmonds’ 2021 season and future fantasy value
There are many ways to examine what happened this past season, including how 90% of the touchdowns between these two backs were scored by Conner, and how Edmonds averaged 1.4 more yards per carry. But Conner was far better breaking tackles, and his elite-level catch rate (37 of 39 targets) made him far more dependable than Edmonds in the passing game.
We are left to assess the value of Edmonds, who despite entering his age-26 season after producing career-highs in rushing yards and ypc, is not yet a proven fantasy commodity. If he can maintain significant usage through the air, his floor should remain solid enough in Miami to start as no worse than a streamer most weeks.
If Edmonds can put it all together and earn a bell-cow role, his talent and versatility should net him plenty of touchdown opportunities — enough to put him in the top-14 RB conversation. The thinking is, if Conner could be the overall RB5, certainly a player of Edmonds’ abilities earning 225-250 touches should be no worse than a high-end RB2. Of course, such thinking requires some leaps of judgment. Here are the most likely fantasy impacts.
Fantasy impact on Dolphins’ key playmakers
First, this is a win for dynasty managers holding Tua Tagovailoa, who toiled away last season alongside one of the league’s least efficient running games. Edmonds’ receiving prowess and proven rushing ability should give the Dolphins‘ offense an immediate upgrade, taking some pressure off of Tua. At the same time, Edmonds’ presence should generate some more scoring opportunities. With a WR upgrade, Tua might not only keep his job, but he could be one of the fantasy QB surprises of 2022.
Second, this is a major loss for those rostering Myles Gaskin. Although, in fairness, the writing was on the wall. Gaskin never profiled to be a bell cow out of college but was forced into the role due to a lack of surrounding talent.
Fantasy impact on Cardinals
With Arizona reportedly signing Conner to a three-year deal, Edmonds’ departure opens the door for the return of “Conner the Bell Cow.” However, we should expect a significant per-touch regression from last year’s totals, as 15 rushing TDs on 3.7 yards per carry was more of a fluke than a replicable stat line.
One factor to keep in mind: the return of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. For example, Murray’s 2021 rushing numbers were nearly half that of 2020, not simply because he missed three games. The team didn’t need him to run much when they were 7-0 with two high-functioning backs. But desperate for wins in the latter stages of the season, the old Murray returned with 276 rushing yards in six games. We could see him cut into his backfield’s fantasy upside in 2022.
Additionally, we should consider that Murray, Edmonds, and Conner combined for 12 rushing TDs from inside the 2-yard line last season, with Conner as the biggest winner. If Eno Benjamin or someone else steps into a 1B role alongside Conner, or if Murray steps up his goal-line work — or even if they don’t get that many chances from that close — Conner would have a tough time finishing in the top 10 again.