Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown is not going to overtake Joe Mixon as the RB1. But he could become the team’s RB2. What are the chances Brown earns that role? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Chase Brown’s Fantasy Outlook
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. No one should be overly excited about a fifth-round rookie. In most circumstances, we wouldn’t even be talking about a guy like Brown. The reason he is on the fantasy radar is because of the Bengals’ running back situation.
Earlier in the offseason, there were reports that Mixon might end up getting cut. Those reports were always difficult to believe in light of the team letting Samaje Perine walk and not signing a veteran. After the Bengals left the NFL Draft with only adding Brown at running back, it became evident that Mixon wasn’t going anywhere.
Nevertheless, there is now an opening at RB2 with Perine gone. Absent the Bengals signing a veteran, it will be one of Brown, Travyeon Williams, or Chris Evans.
The reason fantasy managers have their ears perked up over Brown is he’s the newest toy. Both Williams and Evans are sixth-rounders. We’ve seen Williams for four years. If he were ever going to be anything, it would’ve happened already.
We’ve seen Evans for two years. He has not shown any real ability beyond some semblance of passable receiving skills. Regardless, he was unable to pass Williams on the depth chart last season.
Out of the three guys behind Mixon, Brown is the one with the highest draft capital. He’s also the only one who hasn’t proven he can’t be an NFL-caliber running back.
Of course, the most important question is whether Brown is any good. Well, he’s really fast. Brown ran a 4.43 40-time, which puts his speed score around the 90th percentile. He’s got good size at 5’10”, 209 pounds.
His final three collegiate seasons were very productive, but it is important to note that he was unable to produce until his junior year, and he spent five years in college.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Brown at His ADP?
The Bengals’ backfield projects to lean heavily on Mixon. I can’t imagine anyone else has standalone value. For as good as Perine was last season and as much work as he took from Mixon, he still never had standalone value. It’s not happening for whoever the backup is, anyway.
Furthermore, the most likely scenario in the event of a Mixon injury is a committee. It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that the Bengals go and sign someone and immediately push him ahead of the guys already on the roster.
Brown currently has the highest ADP of the non-Mixon Bengals backs, going at RB64. However, his No. 174 overall ADP means he’s not being drafted outside of deep leagues.
I have Brown ranked as my RB71, one spot ahead of Evans. Essentially, it’s the dealer’s choice on the backup, but I would slightly favor Brown simply because he’s the unknown.
Ultimately, I doubt I burn a roster spot on any Bengals backup RB. Even if Mixon goes down, I don’t expect any of these guys to have startable fantasy value. As such, I’m avoiding Brown even in the latter stages of 2023 fantasy drafts.