The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. They’re now playing for the playoffs rather than for the AFC West crown. On the other side, the Houston Texans are fresh off a win against the Jaguars. They’ve struggled for most of the season, and two of their three wins this year have come against Jacksonville. In this article, you’ll find the NFL odds along with my pick and prediction for the Chargers vs. Texans game in Week 16.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans pick, prediction | Week 16
- Spread: Chargers -9 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Chargers -400, Texans +300
- Over/Under: 46
Teams need to be able to run the ball on the Chargers to beat them, as they generally drop two deep safeties. In their losses, Los Angeles is giving up 143.8 rushing yards and 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game.
[bet-bonus id=”164810″ ]Los Angeles is forcing their opponents to run the ball 45.3% of the time, which is one of the highest rates in the NFL. They also rank 28th in the league in yards allowed per attempt (4.6).
This is a tough matchup for the Texans, who’ve failed to run the ball consistently in 2021. They rank last in the NFL, averaging 3.2 yards per carry. The Texans run game continues to struggle behind Rex Burkhead, David Johnson, and Royce Freeman.
Chargers vs. Texans betting trends
Neither of these teams has performed well against the spread (ATS) this season.
LA has been neutral, posting a 7-7 ATS record thus far. They’ve covered in two of their last three games but failed to as a 3-point underdog in an overtime loss to the Chiefs last week.
Houston enters this game with a 6-8 ATS record this year. They’ve only covered the spread in two of their last five games, but they are coming off of a 14-point win as underdogs in Week 15.
Oddly enough, these teams own the same over/under records as they do ATS records. The Chargers are 7-7 on over/under, while the Texans sit at 6-8.
Chargers vs. Texans prediction
The Chargers are in somewhat of a must-win situation, as several teams are vying for playoffs at 8-6 in the AFC. The Texans, on the other hand, aren’t playing for anything besides a better draft slot.
Los Angeles has performed well on the road with a 4-2 record, and I expect that to continue against one of the worst teams in the NFL. I don’t think Houston will be able to run the ball in this contest, and they’ll struggle to find success through the air as well.
The Chargers can make a statement in this game as they get back on track for the playoffs.
Chargers vs. Texans Prediction: Chargers 24, Texans 13