If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this exciting Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins Week 14 matchup on Sunday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Chargers vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume the Chargers will claim a narrow victory in a battle between two (often) stellar offenses and two (often) vulnerable defenses. I’m predicting a roughly 33-30 L.A. win.
The hobbled Jaylen Waddle and Mike Williams create some havoc in these prop estimations. Assuming they’re good to go, what impact might they have? Waddle’s had two outstanding performances this season; the rest have been somewhere below “great.”
Meanwhile, Williams has barely seen the field since late October. He has 7+ catches for 86+ yards in four contests and no better than a 2-17 receiving line in any of his other four outings. He’s always been boom-bust. But in 2022, he’s taken that unpredictability to a whole new level.
If you agree that this probably will be a high-scoring game, then the many “overs” on the following props will make sense. Some players — like Tyreek Hill and Austin Ekeler (or at least, Ekeler through the air) — bring a certain degree of reliability.
We’ll want to lean into those cornerstone players because, assuredly, the Chargers and Dolphins — both playoff contenders coming off losses — will play to their strengths in a must-win game.
Oh, and if you don’t believe this is a must-win game for the 8-4 Dolphins, consider that three of their final matchups will be @Bills, @Patriots, and the Jets. Lose tonight, and they’ll be at serious risk of going 10-7 at best.
Justin Herbert Player Props
I believe L.A. will try to blitz Miami on offense. The Fins’ defense is near the league’s bottom in interceptions. There could be a nothing-to-lose fearlessness in the Chargers’ approach as they put the game in Justin Herbert’s hands.
Miami’s given up 32.8 points per game on the road, including 32 to the Bears and 40 to the Jets. At or near full strength, Herbert realistically could hit 350+ passing yards and 3+ scores.
- Passing yards over 288.5
(-115) — BetMGM - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-160) — BetMGM - Interceptions under 0.5
(-125) — DraftKings
Austin Ekeler Player Props
How much can we trust Ekeler? If we remove his Week 5 blow-up performance in Cleveland (16-173-1 rushing line), he’s averaged only 3.4 yards per carry. While touchdowns remain plentiful, he’s objectively struggled.
For example, even if we include that Week 5 game, he’s averaging only 1.4 yards after contact, ranking him 41st among RBs. He’s broken merely two tackles — tied for 58th. Last season he ranked 19th and 20th, respectively.
MORE: Dolphins vs. Chargers Prediction
But here’s the thing: he started this season averaging 12.5 carries per contest, helping to pace L.A. to a 4-2 record. He’s averaged only 10.5 carries since, as the Chargers have gone 2-4.
There’s no more “wait ’til next week” for this club. I expect Ekeler to get fed on the ground and through the air to the tune of 21+ touches. That should push him above his prop lines.
- Rushing yards over 48.5
(+105) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 44.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Tua Tagovailoa Player Props
In the belief the Chargers will score 30+, I’m banking on Tua Tagovailoa to play catch-up. Don’t let L.A.’s middling pass-defense stats fool you. They’re yielding the fourth fewest pass attempts. On per-pass-attempt metrics, the Chargers are giving up the ninth most passing yards and fourth most TD passes.
Opponents are running on them because . . . well, because the Chargers are surrendering a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry.
The Fins can go toe-to-toe. The question is at what points Tagovailoa will let loose. I believe the answer is “often,” including in the red zone.
- Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-200) — DraftKings - Passing interceptions under 0.5
(-110) — DraftKings
Tyreek Hill Player Props
A no-brainer, in that the odds favor Tyreek Hill eclipsing 100 yards. Davante Adams racked up an 18-318-3 receiving line in two meetings. The Chargers haven’t had to face any other top-10 receiver this season. Hill should continue to hit his incredible numbers.
MORE: NFL Playoff Odds Week 14
- Receiving yards over 96.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Score a touchdown
(EVEN) — DraftKings