The Los Angeles Chargers are 3-2 and second in the AFC West after an impressive win against their division-rival Denver Broncos. With no true passing weapons, the Chargers have finally started to lean on the defense to help Justin Herbert.
The Arizona Cardinals are in Year 2 of the rebuild and look like they are on the verge of being a good team but just aren’t there yet. They are currently 2-4 with a tough loss to the Green Bay Packers last week. Luckily for them, Kyler Murray and the offense give them something to be hopeful for every week.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chargers -1.5 - Moneyline
Chargers (-120); Cardinals (+100) - Over/Under
44 total points - Game Time
9:00 p.m. ET - Location
State Farm Stadium (Arizona)
Chargers vs. Cardinals Preview and Prediction
According to Tru Media, the Chargers’ offense ranks 24th in expected points added (EPA) with a split of 22nd in passing and 27th in rushing. As expected from a team that employs Greg Roman, the Chargers run the second-most 22 personnel and fifth-most 21 personnel, ranking sixth and 18th in EPA out of those personnel packages.
Despite drafting Joe Alt in the first round and having Rashawn Slater on the opposite end, the Chargers’ offensive line has been bad this season. They have given up the eighth-most pressures per dropback this season despite an average time to throw that ranks 18th. They have also given up the 10th-most quick pressures this season.
Of the six offensive linemen that have started significant time for the Chargers, Alt and Slater rank 22nd and 12th out of 166 offensive linemen in pressures given up. Trey Pipkins and Zion Johnson have been the worst, ranking 83rd and 129th, respectively.
Run blocking-wise, the Chargers rank 15th in yards per rush before contact. The running backs have struggled to get anything going, ranking 25th in yards per rush after contact. Despite a largely inefficient run game, the Chargers rank 28th in pass rate over expected and actually run and pass at the same rate.
While this is generally a bad thing, the wide receivers rank 31st, 63rd, and 94th out of 121 wide receivers in average separation, according to Next Gen Stats. Overall, the Chargers’ offense has been less than promising.
Luckily for the Chargers, the Cardinals rank 20th in EPA against the run and 30th against the pass. PFF has the Cardinals’ coverage grade ranked 30th, and they are 28th in generating pressure. The one thing the Cardinals’ defense has been good at is forcing turnovers, ranking 15th in defensive EPA on turnovers. Unfortunately, they face the Chargers who rank second in EPA on turnovers.
Offensively, the Cardinals rank 12th in passing EPA and 16th in rushing EPA. They rank fourth in scramble EPA, which shouldn’t surprise anyone who has watched Kyler Murray play football. The best part of the offense has been their performance under pressure. They rank second when Murray gets pressured. Luckily, this doesn’t happen much as the Cardinals’ offensive line ranks 10th in pressure allowed.
The Chargers’ defense ranks 20th in generating pressures despite being eighth in defensive passing EPA and first in defensive rushing EPA. LA has the top overall defense this season in EPA under Jim Harbaugh. Part of this is from Jesse Minter’s ability to diversify his coverages. The Chargers rank ninth in coverage predictability, using Shannon entropy. Minter understands what works and what doesn’t.
The @chargers' defense under Jesse Minter is fun to watch. Pre-snap, third-and-6, looks like 2-high with an overhang. Nope. It's Cover-1, with safety Alohi Gilman screaming down to double Courtland Sutton's crosser while Derwin James takes Devaughn Vele's over. Bo Nix is hosed. pic.twitter.com/NvZZw9wTW6
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 19, 2024
The Chargers rank second in defensive EPA when running zone coverage and 27th when running man coverage. They also rank first in the percentage of plays run in zone coverage and 30th in man coverage. This actually feeds perfectly into the Cardinals’ tendencies as well. They rank 29th on offense against man and seventh against zone.
I categorized teams in the Tru Media database as either having a good offense, good defense, both, or neither based on whether or not they have a positive EPA on either side of the ball.
Since 2018, teams with a good offense (Cardinals) versus a good defense (Chargers) have won 53.01% of the time. While this is a good trend to guide you in general, this isn’t a fair comparison because of how dominant the Chargers’ defense has been with the Cardinals’ offense only being slightly above average.
My pick: Chargers -1.5 (-108); Under 44 points (-110)