The Los Angeles Chargers will face the Houston Texans on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chargers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Justin Herbert, QB
Justin Herbert is the first Charger to complete two-thirds of his passes with 280 yards and multiple scores through the air in three straight games (before him, it had been in consecutive games nine times in franchise history). He’s peaking at the right time, and that’s why Los Angeles is a road favorite to kick off the postseason.
The Herbert/Jim Harbaugh tandem has found its stride, and I don’t see the Texans serving as a speed bump. Only Dallas allowed touchdowns at a higher rate when opponents got into goal-to-go situations this season than Houston, giving Herbert (multiple rushing TDs in four of five seasons) a little more upside than meets the eye.
Even if a cheap rushing score doesn’t occur, there’s a path to plenty of upside. The Giants and Panthers are two passing defenses that struggled, right? The Ravens and Commanders are playoff teams with similar flaws, right?
The Texans allow more yards per completion than all of them, making Herbert a threat to lead this slate in passing yards (I’ve bet him to go over 230.5 passing yards and under 0.5 interceptions in such a way that a split would break me even).
Gus Edwards, RB
Gus Edwards has missed consecutive games with an ankle injury, and while we don’t have clarity on his status just yet, I think you can safely look elsewhere. The price point isn’t too prohibitive, but the profile comes with more risk than reward, even at a cheap price tag.
Edwards is averaging 31.2% fewer yards per carry before contact this season than last year with a declining elusive rating despite facing fewer loaded boxes. At best, you’re chasing a touchdown in a game with a total of 42.5 points from a player who lacks versatility and is at less than full strength.
In my opinion, J.K. Dobbins is the only way to play this backfield, and I’m not in a hurry to go in that direction, never mind his limited backup specialist.
J.K. Dobbins, RB
I think the question with J.K. Dobbins is less about buying him and more about roster construction.
- Tier 1 pricing: Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry
- Tier 2: Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon, Bucky Irving, and James Cook
- Tier 3: Dobbins, Aaron Jones, Brian Robinson Jr.
- Tier 4: How lucky do you feel?
Dobbins is one of four running backs to enter the playoffs with at least 18 carries and a catch in both of his last two games (among Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bucky Irving). Gus Edwards missed both of those contests (ankle), and that has lessened the touch competition, something I’m willing to buy at this cost.
Los Angeles has shown us over the past two weeks that they are willing to feature Dobbins, and that promise in the projected game script puts him on my radar. Rostering Dobbins not only opens up the salary cap but gives you leverage off of what will be a very popular Ladd McConkey.
Dobbins has averaged 12.9 PPR points over the past two weeks, and that’s on the high end of what I’m expecting this week, viable production if you feel good about the pieces you can roster around him.
Kimani Vidal, RB
Kimani Vidal was a popular sleeper/best ball name this summer, but things haven’t panned out, and nothing this team has done points to a change in role now that we are in the postseason.
Gus Edwards has been on the shelf over the past two weeks, but the team has opted to put more on the plate of Justin Herbert than anything attached to this run game. In those two contests, Vidal has been on the field for just 6.7% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps and he’s done nothing to earn an uptick in usage (5.6% production below expectations).
The rookie is averaging 4.8 touches per game. That’s about what I have penciled in this week – nothing of substance for us.
Joshua Palmer, WR
Joshua Palmer (foot) has been ruled out for Saturday’s Wild Card game against the Texans.
We all seem to like the Chargers and the trajectory of Justin Herbert, but Palmer isn’t going to be popular at all, given the recent play of Quentin Johnston and the outstanding rookie season from Ladd McConkey.
On the surface, if he was playing, this would have been a tough spot. The Chargers are a road favorite and only an average pass rate over expectation offense, a combination that could make volume a problem for all involved. Palmer would have also been facing a defense that finished the regular season ranked top-six in deep ball passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt.
That’s a pretty damning case against him and why I would have passed this week if he was good to go.
Ladd McConkey, WR
Ladd McConkey finished his rookie season with three straight games north of 85 receiving yards. His six such games match the franchise record for a rookie (2013 Keenan Allen) and this very much feels like only the beginning for a receiver who already is showing the type of route-running chops of a player five years his senior.
I love the versatility we’ve seen from McConkey this season, though I still think his ability to shake free in a flash is his greatest asset. In six of the top-10 pass catcher performances against the Texans this season, the player has posted a single-digit aDOT.
What I like most about Los Angeles’ WR1 is how his value doesn’t hinge on the game script. Obviously, his volume could take off should the Chargers fall behind, but with a 73.2% catch rate this season, he is a safety valve that can be used to help ice the game as well.
You’re not going to find me fading McConkey much over the next five years. I don’t plan on doing it this postseason, either.
Quentin Johnston, WR
Here comes Quentin Johnston.
In a game they clearly wanted to win last week to set up this Wild Card matchup (as opposed to traveling to Baltimore), Johnston accounted for 46.4% of Justin Herbert’s completions, gashing Vegas’ secondary at will.
Sure, there’s a reason that the Raiders are planning for the draft and not a game this week, but it’s hard to have success like that at the professional level, and he did it while Ladd McConkey was his normal productive self (95 yards on eight targets). That explosion (13-186-0) was clearly the highlight of his career up to this point, though he had been trending in the right direction for the past month.
- Weeks 1-14: targeted on 19.7% of routes
- Weeks 15-18: targeted on 29.5% of routes
What we can expect in this game is likely something in the middle of those two percentages, and that might be enough to encourage me to get some contrarian exposure against the defense that allows passing touchdowns at the highest rate among the remaining teams.
McConkey is going to be the popular piece from Los Angeles, and he should be. Heck, I could see J.K. Dobbins pulling in some nice ownership as well after proving his health (18 carries in Week 18) and the expected game script leaning in his favor.
Johnston is a big body capable of making a single target worth your while — the recent usage trends are icing on the cake. I’m interested in DFS this week and very interested in the later stages of playoff-long leagues, with a Chargers run through January not being a crazy thought.
Will Dissly, TE
Did you know that Will Dissly’s target rate (targets earned divided by routes run) is within 1.5 percentage points of Travis Kelce and George Kittle? Ahead of Jake Ferguson and T.J. Hockenson?
The production has been spotty at best, but Dissly is at least involved in this offense, and with only one constant in the passing game (Ladd McConkey), this is the type of dart I don’t hate throwing if you’re in need of some salary relief in a DFS setting or waiting to address the position in a postseason draft.
You get the target uncertainty, win equity, and cheap exposure to a franchise quarterback whose star seems to be on the rise (Justin Herbert’s last three games: 911 passing yards with seven touchdowns).