The Los Angeles Chargers will face the New England Patriots in Week 17. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chargers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Justin Herbert, QB
Every season in every sport, we see players who are worth more in our game than in the “real” game.
Justin Herbert is the opposite. The less the Chargers rely on Herbert, the happier Jim Harbaugh is.
Consider this — Harbaugh’s star quarterback is hardly averaging more pass attempts this season (28.7) than completions in 2022 (28.1). That, of course, is not near ideal for our purposes, and when you consider that Herbert’s alpha WR1 is a rookie, the ceiling/floor combination isn’t exactly working in our favor.
But maybe this is a good spot?
Herbert is coming off of a Thursday night game that saw him complete a season-high 11 passes in play-action situations, and the Patriots happen to own a bottom-five touchdown rate in defending such passes. The volume is one thing, but that’s not what encouraged me the most from the win over the Broncos: 2.6 yards.
That’s all Herbert averaged in air yards on those play-action attempts. That’s nothing (Weeks 1-15: 9.3).
Some will read that as an unwillingness to challenge downfield, and I’m not saying that’s wrong, but I don’t think it’s the angle to take. In my eyes, this could forecast putting more on Herbert’s plate and making his right arm a supplement to the traditional run game.
Don’t get me wrong, I still think Los Angeles looks to establish the run, especially as a road favorite on long rest. That said, last week gave me a little more hope in terms of a ceiling when it comes to dropbacks and, thus, quarterback value.
I don’t think it would be crazy to think Herbert returns value similar to last week, which makes him a reasonable option in the money round of fantasy leagues if you are without a star at the position.
Gus Edwards, RB
The Gus Bus. Gus-timus Prime. Edwards Touchdownhands.
The Gus Edwards experience is unique; if you ran into his 20.1 PPR points last Thursday night, I’m happy for you. I’m also fully cautioning you in a reasonably forceful way for Week 17.
It’s true that Edwards was an impactful part of matchups last week, but we are in the business of projecting forward, not living in the past. I’m a man of sample sizes, so let’s extend this a bit.
If you go back 21 games (Why 21? Well, 22 games ago, Edwards had an 80-yard reception that blows up any projection-based analysis), 49.5% of his PPR points have come on touchdowns. It’s one thing to have a valuable trait; it’s another to rely on that completely to put food on the table of fantasy managers.
Just how ugly have the non-TD touches been? That’s where you lose me in wanting to play Edwards in any capacity this week against a team that ranks in the top five in opponent running back rush TD rate since Week 6.
In those 21 games, Edwards has averaged 0.46 PPR points per non-touchdown touch. That sounds bad, and, with context, it gets worse.
If we look at this season, that rate ranks in the Ty Chandler, Zamir White, and Carson Steele tier. If you bet against me getting those names into a Week 17 article, you lose. If you play Edwards this week, that is, in my opinion, likely to be the case as well.
J.K. Dobbins, RB
J.K. Dobbins missed a month, and his potential return to action, while a nice boost for a Chargers ground game sans Gus Edwards, doesn’t require action in fantasy leagues.
The fast start to the season was nice, but after his initial burst, he’s averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, and his value figures to be capped at such a level that anything but elite efficiency will make him unplayable in most formats.
Kimani Vidal, RB
After seeing north of 50% of the snaps in consecutive games, Kimani Vidal saw his rate trend back to his season average on Thursday night (32.8%, season: 31.8%). That makes him a name to keep in mind for next season, more than one who should be kicking around rosters in the late stages of this season.
However, with Gus Edwards out this week and JK Dobbins only a threat for so much work after missing a month, this rookie could serve as a sneaky Flex option in what figures to be a favorable game script.
James Cook turned 14 touches into 126 yards and a pair of touchdowns against this New England defense last week — Vidal isn’t a good bet to do that, but 14-16 touches give him plenty of potential to finish as a top-25 RB in this critical week.
Joshua Palmer, WR
Joshua Palmer has reached double-digit expected points in just two games this season, which is not a major surprise for a player with an aDOT (15.3) that nearly matches his on-field target share (16%).
I maintain my overall thought that a second pass catcher on this offense can thrive. This year, it’s been a revolving door; that might be the plan long-term under Jim Harbaugh. I’ll put in the work this summer to determine who is the WR2 to take a flier on, but that’s for 2025.
For Week 17, it’s Ladd McConkey or bust.
Ladd McConkey, WR
Over the past decade, only four receivers drafted outside of the first round have produced 24% over expectations during their first season (minimum 75 targets):
- A.J. Brown (2019): +53.6%
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017): +44.4%
- Tyreek Hill (2016): +32.4%
- Jayden Reed (2023): +25.2%
Ladd McConkey sits at +24.3% and shows no signs of slowing down. Thursday was the fourth time in two months in which not a single target to the rookie hit the ground, and while the scoring equity is lower than we’d like (one TD since the beginning of November), the combination of quality and quantity in the target department has McConkey as an auto-start in all formats.
Through 16 weeks, he’s spent 68.7% of his time in the slot, a spot on the field where the Patriots struggle (25th in passer rating and 26th in opponent touchdown rate when throwing to the slot).
This is the window to make a run with him on your team — I don’t doubt that he’ll be productive (the four receivers mentioned above combined to log production 23.9% over expectations in their second season), but the price point is going to be very different.
Quentin Johnston, WR
When you bet on roulette, you understand that the odds are good that you lose, but there’s a window of hope, and that has you considering a spin every time you walk by it.
Quentin Johnston is that. He’s scored on 21.6% of his receptions this season and has the potential to reward you for your faith with a single play, but you need that single play because the volume is never going to be there. We are talking about a player who has failed to reach 50 receiving yards in seven straight games — with a streak like that, you can’t be mad when a 3-18-0 stat line occurs like it did last week.
That’s the cost of doing business.
Much like Buffalo Gabe Davis, you’re either fully committed to a specific spot or you’re wise to fade. The Patriots are the second-best defense when it comes to opposing deep passing touchdown rate — this doesn’t look like the 15+ PPR point spot for Johnston, and that means I have no interest.
Will Dissly, TE
Will Dissly (shoulder) was banged up in Week 14 and hasn’t played since. Stone Smartt has filled in admirably (11 catches on 12 targets for 141 yards over the past three games).
For the season, Dissly has a 78.2% catch rate and has provided a level of stability to a passing offense that largely lacks that outside of Ladd McConkey. But might the role of Dissly be more valuable than the player himself?
That is, with Smartt coming in and essentially being a skinny version of Dissly, I’m tempted to think that “Insert Chain-Moving TE” in this Jim Harbaugh offense has a path to low-end appeal in PPR leagues. Operating under that logic, I prefer Smartt to Dissly moving forward.
That’s not to say he is the better player, but if we are in a position to play him, it means that the snaps are all his because Dissly remains sidelined. This role isn’t one that I’m confident can be divided and provide us with much, but if we can project the bulk of that usage for one player, the case could be made for a fringe-TE1 ranking.