The Los Angeles Chargers will face the Tennessee Titans in Week 10. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chargers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Justin Herbert, QB
Slowly but surely this Los Angeles offense is opening up, and Justin Herbert is benefiting. The franchise quarterback has produced consecutive QB1 finishes after not posting a single top-15 week previously, and I think there’s a chance we see viable production moving forward, something I wasn’t at all expecting to say a month ago.
The numbers last week were impressive, but 94 yards and two touchdowns coming on completely broken coverages need to be highlighted as plays that are difficult to bank on. That said, he did have a stretch of 13 straight completions during the game, further proof that he is gaining a level of comfort in this system that we didn’t see early on.
I’m still taking a cautious approach in less-than-ideal matchups (TEN: league-low 6.0 yards per pass against), but Herbert has my attention with plus matchups on the horizon (home games against the Bengals and Ravens in Weeks 11-12).
J.K. Dobbins, RB
I think I’ve written regression notes in J.K. Dobbins’ section of this novel for a month straight, and I’m not going to stop now. In targeting a fantasy contributor at the running back position, I need a few basic boxes checked.
- Role
- Team support
- Versatility
- Matchup
I’m not greedy; I don’t need all of them. I want a minimum of two, though, and with each passing week, I get less and less sure about Dobbins’ profile. The role is there, sure, I’ll give you that, even with the Chargers opening up things a bit. But everything else?
Over the past three games, Dobbins has seen his yards per carry before contact drop by 69.6%, and that’s a tough way to make a living if your name isn’t Derrick Henry.
Pass-catching has never been a true strength of his. While he has caught multiple passes in six straight, an average of 4.5 yards per target isn’t symbolic of elite upside.
As for the matchup, the Titans are fourth-best in defending running backs in terms of both yards per carry and first-down rate. It’s easy to look at Dobbins’ overall numbers and lock him in, but he’s more of a low-end RB2 for me that carries just as much risk as reward.
Joshua Palmer, WR
Joshua Palmer was able to find paydirt from 27 yards out last week courtesy of a busted coverage, a level of production that looked good on your bench/waiver wire. The score was good to see, though I’d caution you about getting too excited.
Palmer’s target-earning metrics are pacing for the lowest of his career (yet to earn more than five targets in a game). With the hierarchy of this offense in flux week-over-week, I don’t think you’re going to get usable weeks on a consistent (or predictable) basis.
Palmer has a catch of at least 24 yards in five straight, and that can put him on your radar in a desperate situation. But this isn’t the type of receiver I want to be counting on if my matchup is expected to be close.
Ladd McConkey, WR
Ladd McConkey came into the NFL with a lot less fanfare than his rookie classmates. While only time will tell how that plays out long-term, it’s difficult to argue that he was as NFL-ready as anyone (six-plus targets earned in seven of eight games this season).
The Bolts called his number on their first play last week (16-yard reception) and, as they open up this offense, I think we are more likely to see an increase in usage for McConkey than any sort of opportunity regression.
Chargers’ one-score pass rates, 2024:
- Weeks 1-5: 53%
- Weeks 6-9: 63.5%
The Titans have produced some strong defensive numbers this season, but they cough up 7.8 slot completions per game (26th). That’s enough to greenlight starting McConkey as a WR2 in PPR leagues.
Quentin Johnston, WR
After missing two games with an ankle injury, Quentin Johnston posted a 4-118-1 stat line in Cleveland and rewarded you for the bold decision to plug him in right away.
Now, let’s pump the breaks a little bit here. In the win, 61.8% of Johnston’s points came on a single play that featured a broken coverage at the highest order, numbers that count in the Week 9 box score, but not ones that tell us much of a story when it comes to protecting future output.
On the bright side, Justin Herbert seems to have gained Jim Harbaugh’s trust and is being unleashed. On the less bright side, Herbert seems to have gained the trust of Harbaugh, as he is being unleashed.
Let me explain. Adding volume to the Chargers’ passing game is a step in the right direction, but Herbert operating at his full potential is going to result in target dispersion patterns like what we saw on Sunday — nine different players were targeted on his 27 passes.
You can be excited about what you saw in your box score from Johnston, but let’s not forget that after showing flashes in September this is the same player that totaled 31 yards in two games prior to the ankle injury.
The Titans own the best EPA defense against receivers this season, and that has me trending away from Flexing Johnston this week. I’m likely to be lower on him than most moving forward because I have Ladd McConkey labeled as the premier target earner in LA’s low-volume offense, with the other options being weekly coin flips.
Wan’Dale Robinson is boring, and Jalen Coker plays for the inept Panthers — I have both ranked higher this weekend.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers Insights
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans are allowing a league-low 1.75 deep completions per game this season (the Chargers rank 24th in deep passes completed per game, 2.50).
QB: Over the past two weeks, Mason Rudolph is averaging 12 yards per completion. In Week 9, per our QB+ metric, he graded out better than Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen.
Offense: Tennessee is turning the ball over a league-high 2.13 times per game this season.
Defense: The Titans own the sixth best defense in the league in terms of success rate (62.1%).
Fantasy: The Titans are a tough watch, but Tony Pollard’s role is nothing short of elite – he has multiple catches in every game and at least 16 carries in seven of eight.
Betting: The Titans went 0-2 ATS on the road in October and are 2-9 ATS on the road over their past 11 – both of those covers came against the Dolphins. They are not playing the Dolphins this week.
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: The Chargers continue to flirt with it, but they’ve yet to see 40 points scored in a game this season (32-39 points scored in all four games since the Week 5 bye).
QB: Justin Herbert has 910 passing yards over his past three games (first five games: 815 passing yards).
Offense: This season, the Chargers are 5-0 when they clear 15 points.
Defense: By total defensive EPA, the Chargers are the best defense in the league (18% better than the second-place Minnesota Vikings).
Fantasy: J.K. Dobbins is averaging 13.8 yards per carry on touchdowns this season and 4.5 on carries that don’t end up in the end zone.
Betting: Unders are 9-2 in the Chargers’ past 11 home games (3-0 this season, with each of those games going under the total by at least 7.5 points).