The Los Angeles Chargers will face the Houston Texans in the first game of Wild Card Weekend at NRG Stadium. With a Week 18 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Chargers secured the fifth seed, ensuring a trip to Houston instead of flying all the way across the country to Baltimore.
That move to the fifth seed not only impacted the Chargers’ Wild Card Weekend plans but could have ramifications down the line in terms of who they play in the Divisional Round. Let’s break down who the Chargers could play in the Divisional Round and their potential playoff scenarios in the AFC bracket.
What Are the Los Angeles Chargers’ Playoff Scenarios?
Being the No. 5 seed, there are four potential opponents for the Chargers in the Divisional Round. The only team in the bracket they cannot face in the Divisional Round is the Denver Broncos (and the Texans).
All scenarios and probabilities from here on in will be calculated using the assumption that the Chargers have beaten the Texans. If you want to calculate the likelihood of each scenario happening, including the Chargers odds, we have them with a 56.2% chance of winning in Houston.
Additionally, for all scenarios outlined in this article, the key thing to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. When each round of games is over, the lowest remaining seed is paired up to face the highest remaining seed, and the higher seed in every matchup hosts the game.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Chargers’ most likely opponent is the Kansas City Chiefs. With both the No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills and No. 3 seed Baltimore Ravens favored to win, the Chargers would be the lowest remaining seed in the AFC and would head to Arrowhead for a second time this season.
There is a 45.2% chance that the Chargers play their Divisional Round game in Kansas City. The next most likely outcome based on our win probabilities is a 26.3% chance of playing in Baltimore, with a game in Buffalo at 18.0% and then a game in Los Angeles against the Steelers at 10.5%.
For the Chargers to head to Baltimore, the Ravens would need to beat the Steelers, and the Denver Broncos would need to upset the Bills on the road. As the No. 7 seed, the Broncos would then head to Arrowhead, with the Chargers going to M&T Bank Stadium for a rematch with the Ravens.
The Chargers can head to Buffalo if the Bills beat the Broncos and the Steelers beat the Ravens. That would leave the No. 6 seed Steelers going to the Chiefs and the No. 5 seed Chargers heading into Buffalo.
We could also see the Chargers hosting a playoff game in the Divisional Round, but they would need three upsets in the AFC bracket on Wild Card Weekend. If the Steelers beat the Ravens and the Broncos beat the Bills, then the Chargers would be the second-highest remaining seed. The Broncos would head to Kansas City, and the Chargers would host the Steelers in SoFi Stadium (all being well).
Could the Chargers Host the AFC Championship Game?
That Week 18 win was important for the Chargers as it greatly increased their chances of hosting the AFC Championship Game. Three of those four Wild Card Weekend outcomes would give the Chargers a chance of hosting the AFC Championship Game.
They would need either the Broncos or Steelers to upset the Chiefs in Arrowhead in the Divisional Round, but there would be a path to it. Should the Bills, Ravens, and Chargers all win on Wild Card Weekend, then as the lowest-remaining seed, the Chargers would have no path to hosting the AFC Championship Game.