The Los Angeles Chargers will face the New England Patriots in Week 17. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chargers and Patriots skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Justin Herbert, QB
Every season in every sport, we see players who are worth more in our game than in the “real” game.
Justin Herbert is the opposite. The less the Chargers rely on Herbert, the happier Jim Harbaugh is.
Consider this — Harbaugh’s star quarterback is hardly averaging more pass attempts this season (28.7) than completions in 2022 (28.1). That, of course, is not near ideal for our purposes, and when you consider that Herbert’s alpha WR1 is a rookie, the ceiling/floor combination isn’t exactly working in our favor.
But maybe this is a good spot?
Herbert is coming off of a Thursday night game that saw him complete a season-high 11 passes in play-action situations, and the Patriots happen to own a bottom-five touchdown rate in defending such passes. The volume is one thing, but that’s not what encouraged me the most from the win over the Broncos: 2.6 yards.
That’s all Herbert averaged in air yards on those play-action attempts. That’s nothing (Weeks 1-15: 9.3).
Some will read that as an unwillingness to challenge downfield, and I’m not saying that’s wrong, but I don’t think it’s the angle to take. In my eyes, this could forecast putting more on Herbert’s plate and making his right arm a supplement to the traditional run game.
Don’t get me wrong, I still think Los Angeles looks to establish the run, especially as a road favorite on long rest. That said, last week gave me a little more hope in terms of a ceiling when it comes to dropbacks and, thus, quarterback value.
I don’t think it would be crazy to think Herbert returns value similar to last week, which makes him a reasonable option in the money round of fantasy leagues if you are without a star at the position.
Drake Maye, QB
Drake Maye is pretty clearly a fantasy asset in the making, but his supporting cast isn’t on par with that of a Jayden Daniels, so there’s no need to take on this level of risk for marginal upside.
The Chargers aren’t often challenged down the field, but they can be had for the chunk play if Maye is afforded the time to throw (LAC: 13.4% deep touchdown rate, the highest in the league).
The inverse of that, however, is what happens when those big plays don’t connect. This is the defense that owns the 10th-highest sack rate and is the best in the game at preventing red-zone trips from turning into touchdowns. Maye has fantasy stardom in his future, but not so much in the present with a subpar supporting cast and some learning still to do.
J.K. Dobbins, RB
J.K. Dobbins missed a month, and his potential return to action, while a nice boost for a Chargers ground game sans Gus Edwards, doesn’t require action in fantasy leagues.
The fast start to the season was nice, but after his initial burst, he’s averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, and his value figures to be capped at such a level that anything but elite efficiency will make him unplayable in most formats.
Gus Edwards, RB
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Edwards is inactive for today's game.
The Gus Bus. Gus-timus Prime. Edwards Touchdownhands.
The Gus Edwards experience is unique; if you ran into his 20.1 PPR points last Thursday night, I’m happy for you. I’m also fully cautioning you in a reasonably forceful way for Week 17.
It’s true that Edwards was an impactful part of matchups last week, but we are in the business of projecting forward, not living in the past. I’m a man of sample sizes, so let’s extend this a bit.
If you go back 21 games (Why 21? Well, 22 games ago, Edwards had an 80-yard reception that blows up any projection-based analysis), 49.5% of his PPR points have come on touchdowns. It’s one thing to have a valuable trait; it’s another to rely on that completely to put food on the table of fantasy managers.
Just how ugly have the non-TD touches been? That’s where you lose me in wanting to play Edwards in any capacity this week against a team that ranks in the top five in opponent running back rush TD rate since Week 6.
In those 21 games, Edwards has averaged 0.46 PPR points per non-touchdown touch. That sounds bad, and, with context, it gets worse.
If we look at this season, that rate ranks in the Ty Chandler, Zamir White, and Carson Steele tier. If you bet against me getting those names into a Week 17 article, you lose. If you play Edwards this week, that is, in my opinion, likely to be the case as well.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
On his 238 touches this season, Rhamondre Stevenson has as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns (seven) and as many fumbles lost as touches gaining 30+ yards (three). Without ball security in the NFL, there’s not much job security, and that might be a decision the Patriots make in 2025 as they look to build out a Drake Maye-centric offense.
Stevenson has finished each of his past three games in the RB20-30 bucket. While I have him ranked closer to the back end of that than the front, I think that’s about right. The role in the passing game isn’t what it once was, but with a 13+ yard reception in three straight and four games this season with at least four grabs, there’s enough in this profile to justify a Flex ranking, even if it’s not the most comfortable click to make.
Kimani Vidal, RB
After seeing north of 50% of the snaps in consecutive games, Kimani Vidal saw his rate trend back to his season average on Thursday night (32.8%, season: 31.8%). That makes him a name to keep in mind for next season, more than one who should be kicking around rosters in the late stages of this season.
However, with Gus Edwards out this week and JK Dobbins only a threat for so much work after missing a month, this rookie could serve as a sneaky Flex option in what figures to be a favorable game script.
James Cook turned 14 touches into 126 yards and a pair of touchdowns against this New England defense last week — Vidal isn’t a good bet to do that, but 14-16 touches give him plenty of potential to finish as a top-25 RB in this critical week.
DeMario Douglas, WR
The idea of DeMario Douglas one day being for Drake Maye what Khalil Shakir is for Josh Allen is something that appeals to me, but we are far from that “one day.” New England’s slot option has been held under 35 receiving yards in three straight games; that becomes even more worrisome when you see a 91.7% catch rate across those games.
If this is him at peak efficiency, what ceiling is there realistically to chase? It’s OK to be both encouraged by the future of the Maye-led offense and want no piece of it in the short term. That’s where I’m at.
Quentin Johnston, WR
When you bet on roulette, you understand that the odds are good that you lose, but there’s a window of hope, and that has you considering a spin every time you walk by it.
Quentin Johnston is that. He’s scored on 21.6% of his receptions this season and has the potential to reward you for your faith with a single play, but you need that single play because the volume is never going to be there. We are talking about a player who has failed to reach 50 receiving yards in seven straight games — with a streak like that, you can’t be mad when a 3-18-0 stat line occurs like it did last week.
That’s the cost of doing business.
Much like Buffalo Gabe Davis, you’re either fully committed to a specific spot or you’re wise to fade. The Patriots are the second-best defense when it comes to opposing deep passing touchdown rate — this doesn’t look like the 15+ PPR point spot for Johnston, and that means I have no interest.
Ladd McConkey, WR
Over the past decade, only four receivers drafted outside of the first round have produced 24% over expectations during their first season (minimum 75 targets):
- A.J. Brown (2019): +53.6%
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017): +44.4%
- Tyreek Hill (2016): +32.4%
- Jayden Reed (2023): +25.2%
Ladd McConkey sits at +24.3% and shows no signs of slowing down. Thursday was the fourth time in two months in which not a single target to the rookie hit the ground, and while the scoring equity is lower than we’d like (one TD since the beginning of November), the combination of quality and quantity in the target department has McConkey as an auto-start in all formats.
Through 16 weeks, he’s spent 68.7% of his time in the slot, a spot on the field where the Patriots struggle (25th in passer rating and 26th in opponent touchdown rate when throwing to the slot).
This is the window to make a run with him on your team — I don’t doubt that he’ll be productive (the four receivers mentioned above combined to log production 23.9% over expectations in their second season), but the price point is going to be very different.
Joshua Palmer, WR
Joshua Palmer has reached double-digit expected points in just two games this season, which is not a major surprise for a player with an aDOT (15.3) that nearly matches his on-field target share (16%).
I maintain my overall thought that a second pass catcher on this offense can thrive. This year, it’s been a revolving door; that might be the plan long-term under Jim Harbaugh. I’ll put in the work this summer to determine who is the WR2 to take a flier on, but that’s for 2025.
For Week 17, it’s Ladd McConkey or bust.
Will Dissly, TE
Will Dissly (shoulder) was banged up in Week 14 and hasn’t played since. Stone Smartt has filled in admirably (11 catches on 12 targets for 141 yards over the past three games).
For the season, Dissly has a 78.2% catch rate and has provided a level of stability to a passing offense that largely lacks that outside of Ladd McConkey. But might the role of Dissly be more valuable than the player himself?
That is, with Smartt coming in and essentially being a skinny version of Dissly, I’m tempted to think that “Insert Chain-Moving TE” in this Jim Harbaugh offense has a path to low-end appeal in PPR leagues. Operating under that logic, I prefer Smartt to Dissly moving forward.
That’s not to say he is the better player, but if we are in a position to play him, it means that the snaps are all his because Dissly remains sidelined. This role isn’t one that I’m confident can be divided and provide us with much, but if we can project the bulk of that usage for one player, the case could be made for a fringe-TE1 ranking.
Hunter Henry, TE
It would appear that we have found the best way to utilize Drake Maye’s upside. Is it a little late? Sure, but better late than never, and Henry might be able to put you over the edge as you battle for supremacy in your league.
Last week, he posted his sixth top-10 finish at the position, partly because Maye acted as if he had Henry rostered on his fantasy team (four end zone targets). The usage in close has been there when New England has gotten the opportunity to score, and while that’s encouraging, that’s not all he offers.
Henry offers plus athleticism and has been trusted with vertical shots this year. He’s cleared 50 air yards in four of his past five games, something that gives him the potential to pay off your trust even if you’re skeptical about an offense that enters this week with a sub-20 point projection.
You’re going to have to deal with the confusion on whether it is Austin Hooper (3+ catches in six straight games) or Henry making plays while you’re watching, but this offense pretty clearly wants to feature its chain-moving tight ends; Henry has been on the right side of that committee often enough for me to consider him a viable low-end TE1 this week, even in a tough matchup.