The Kansas City Chiefs are the current number-one seed in the AFC at 11-1. Despite winning, they haven’t had their typical dominance or style as in years past. Yet they remain the team to beat in this pivotal divisional matchup that inches us closer to a fun postseason.
You can never say enough about Jim Harbaugh and his staff. With this culture in place, the Los Angeles Chargers have a completely new feel to the team, and the results are showing. Arguably the most impressive of them all is the performance from defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. He is quickly coaching himself into a head coaching candidacy.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chiefs -4 - Moneyline
Chiefs (-218); Chargers (+180) - Over/Under
43 total points - Game Time
8:20 p.m ET - Location
Arrowhead Stadium
Chargers vs. Chiefs Preview and Prediction
Per Tru Media, the Mahomes-led Chiefs have never had a worse record against the spread (36.4%), have never won by fewer points per game (4.5), and are having their second-worst performance in offensive EPA (expected points added) per play.
Yet they are still 11-1. Regression to the mean is often likely for a team winning this many close games. Well, not with an all-time great quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. Robby Greerre shows us this in his Twitter post about the highest win percentages in one-score games.
The Chiefs are 6-0 in 1 score games, which means we will see mean reversion, right?
Probably not pic.twitter.com/Bng4rnwKwf
— Robby (@greerreNFL) November 5, 2024
To really hammer this point home, I want to look at two more things. Among the 82 quarterbacks with over 1,000 attempts in such games, Mahomes ranks fourth in EPA per dropback. One could argue that one-score games are not a good proxy for coin-flip games. Well, Mahomes also leads all quarterbacks with over 200 attempts in EPA when looking at games with a win probability between 48 and 52%.
As dangerous as it is to be in so many one-score games, the Chiefs’ offense still ranks eighth in EPA this season without their two best wide receivers (one of whom will be returning sometime in December). They also remain one of the most down-to-down consistent teams in the league, ranking second in success rate.
Kansas City ranks 28th in explosive play rate (passes of 20+ and rushes of 10+), which is a testament to how good their offense really is. You rarely ever see an offense with this low of an explosive play rate be this successful. Since 2018, the 2024 Chiefs rank 187 out of 224 in explosive plays per game. Despite this, the Chiefs average 4.94 EPA per game. Not a single team below them in explosive play rate has a positive EPA.
In fact, to find a team performing better than the Chiefs, you have to go all the way up to 143rd of 224 (in explosive play rate), which is the 2021 Green Bay Packers. How does a team stop that? By having a defense equally as good at consistent stops. The Chargers defense ranks eighth this season in success rate and fifth in defensive EPA per play.
The Chargers defense did a great job of stopping the Chiefs in their week four matchup, holding the offense to a negative EPA and only 17 points. This was done through heavy usage of zone coverage (79.3%), something the Chargers run third-most in the league. Another reason was that the Chargers were able to pressure Mahomes on 44.1% of his dropbacks and sacked him three times.
According to my Shannon entropy rankings, the Chargers defense has the third-most unpredictable scheme and the sixth-highest run funnel, something the Chiefs have struggled to do this season. Most impressively, the Chargers’ pressure came with a low 17.6% blitz rate, taking advantage of mismatches along the offensive line all night long.
Unfortunately for the Chargers, the Chiefs defense ranks number one in unpredictability. This showed in the week four matchup as well when the Chiefs were able to pressure Justin Herbert on 51.7% of dropbacks, getting pressure in under 2.5 seconds on an absurd 29.4% of dropbacks. The Chargers were also held to just 55 rushing yards on 24 attempts and only picked up three rushing first downs.
Since that matchup, the Chargers offense is 11th in quick pressures allowed, 15th in overall pressures, but still ranks 25th in rushing yards per attempt. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense is 11th in pressures, 11th in quick pressures, and second in opponent rushing yards per attempt.
While the Chargers offensive line has gotten better and Herbert is an amazing quarterback, they don’t have the run game or weapons required to beat a defense like the Chiefs. Josh Allen’s rushing prowess was the main factor in being able to score points on the Chiefs in their lone loss this season. I like the Chiefs to win this one and sweep the Chargers.
My pick: Chiefs -218