The Los Angeles Chargers head to Cleveland to face the Browns in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head over to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 40.5) at Cleveland Browns
This game is remarkable even when you start thinking about it. Sure, the Browns are 27th in our PR+, but that’s based largely on an offense that was just a complete mess under Deshaun Watson. While it was hardly high-flying under Jameis Winston, it finished the week ranked 18th in Offense+, one spot below the Chargers.
TILLY PUTS US AHEAD!#BALvsCLE on CBS and NFL+ pic.twitter.com/nLKMAgT9Tu
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) October 27, 2024
Defensively, both units rank inside the top 10, with the Chargers having a slight edge over the Browns (fourth vs. eighth). Both are also in the top 10 in special teams, with Cleveland ranking third and Los Angeles eighth. Additionally, they’ve both played schedules that rank inside the top 10 easiest through eight weeks.
We don’t want to overreact to the Browns’ one win, but this is very much a game they should be in this week. Four of Cleveland’s six losses have been by a single score, in which they are 2-4 in. The Chargers have yet to score more than 27 points, suggesting they are not going to run away with this one. They themselves are 1-2 in one-score games but have largely relied on their defense.
This has the makings of a low-scoring game that will likely not be remembered fondly but could be exciting in the Week 9 Witching Hour. The under very much feels like the right play, with two offenses that rank in the bottom third this year and two defenses that rank in the top third.
Prediction: Chargers 17, Browns 14
Pick: Under 40.5
Chargers at Browns Game Insights
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: We still haven’t seen 40 total points scored in a Charger game this season (the Browns aren’t exactly explosive on either side of the ball, but even they’ve seen 40 points hit three times this season)
QB: Over the past two weeks, Justin Herbert is 20-of-24 for 328 yards and a touchdown when throwing out of play-action.
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, the Bolts averaged 1.5 points per drive. In the past three weeks, however, that number has spiked to 2.0 (up 33.3%).
Defense: Los Angeles is the only team in the league that can say they’ve recovered as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed (three).
Fantasy: This is a low-volume offense, and those situations typically result in touchdowns to pay off fantasy managers – J.K. Dobbins was able to help you out with a short score, but that’s not going to be the norm for a team that ranks 31st in percentage of drives that reach the opponents’ 20-yard line (20.8%, only the Browns have been worse).
Betting: Unders are 5-1 in the last six Justin Herbert starts in which the Chargers have been a road favorite.
Cleveland Browns
Team: Cleveland leads the league in play-action rate this season (19.4%), which they essentially mirrored in Jameis Winston’s first start (19.7%).
QB: Winston went 8-11 when throwing deep downfield (15-plus air yards) on Sunday against the Ravens, totaling 167 yards and two touchdowns.
Offense: The Browns completed just 19.2% of their third downs through Week 6. Against the Bengals in Week 7, they were eight-of-19 (42.1%) and, in the upset win over the Ravens on Sunday, eight-of-15 (53.3%).
Defense: Cleveland leads the NFL in pressure rate this season (42.7%) and made Lamar Jackson uncomfortable on 50% of his dropbacks last weekend (the second time this season, they created chaos on at least half of their opponents’ pass attempts.
Fantasy: David Njoku has scored in consecutive weeks and can be used as a weekly option across all formats with confidence as the featured pass catcher in the fourth most pass-oriented offense when inside the red zone.
Betting: Since the beginning of last season, the Browns are 7-2 ATS when playing at home with a total that closes under 40 points (unders are 6-2-1 in those games).