The Championship Round of the NFL playoffs brings some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 20 weeks of data, could this week be our most profitable yet? We’ve got some interesting sides, totals, and props to consider before settling in for what promises to be another exciting day across the NFL.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Championship NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Championship Round picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
- Commanders/Eagles under 47.5
- Jayden Daniels under 0.5 interceptions
- James Cook to lead Chiefs/Bills in rushing yards
- Parlay: Under 47.5 longest FG in both games (+272)
David Bearman’s Picks
- Lean: Commanders/Eagles over 47.5
- Chiefs -1.5
Jason Katz’s Picks
- Kareem Hunt anytime TD
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Bearman: I don’t love this game. The teams split their regular season meetings, with the Eagles pretty much controlling the first matchup and the early part of the second matchup before Daniels and the Washington Commanders did their thing and rallied to win.
One game went under, the other over. The Philadelphia Eagles have shown an ability to score at will with Saquon Barkley but also have struggled to move the ball with their passing game. The Commanders are on an incredible roll, but this is usually when Cinderella’s slipper falls off.
The bottom line: I can see almost anything happening here and wouldn’t be surprised. The one thing I am leaning toward is the over. I have played four overs all season, and the Commanders have been involved in all four of them, going 3-1 and only missing when Daniels got hurt on the first drive.
What scares me the most is their rushing defense, which was 30th in rush yards per game and 28th in rush yards per play, staring at Barkley on the other side.
Barkley is going to get his and the Commanders are going to score as well, making me lean over the 47.5 in this one.
Pick: Lean over 47.5
Soppe: Any time we get an interdivisional matchup in the postseason, it’s only natural to look back at the two regular-season meetings to try to get a general understanding of how things could play out.
- Week 11 at Philadelphia: 26-18, Eagles
- Week 16 at Washington: 36-33, Commanders
Once you remember what happened last time these two teams met, your reflex might be to bet the over given that it opened 21.5 points shy of last month’s shootout.
Be careful.
The average scoring drive (touchdown or field goal) this season across the NFL is 57.1 yards — seven drives in that Week 16 meeting covered less ground than that. Seven!
Some games don’t have seven scores, period. Both teams made their runs, but, even in a high-scoring contest, we got plenty of proof that these defenses can have their moments (13 total points scored from the beginning of the second quarter to the end of the third).
I think the first meeting is a bit more predictive (22 drives, five fewer than the most recent contest); getting to this point total will likely be an uphill battle if that’s the case.
The Eagles are the 10th-slowest offense this season, and I have a hard time imagining that they will speed things up and give Daniels a chance to get back on the field. The home team owns the highest rush rate over expectation this season; with the Commanders ranking dead last in terms of yards allowed per carry before first contact, this lines up to be a game in which Philadelphia can dictate the tempo.
I’m expecting prolonged drives on both sides in this game. If one comes up empty (over the past decade, turnover rates for interdivisional playoff games are 23.1% higher than when interdivisional teams hook up in the regular season), we are sitting pretty.
Pick: Commanders/Eagles under 47.5
Soppe: Can the rookie take this team all the way to the big game?
I’m not going that far, but I’d be surprised if his play proved prohibitive.
This season, Daniels’ average depth of throw is 3.9% shallower than the league average. He’s capable of stretching the field, but the team has insulated him with shorter looks; I think that is something we see come into play this weekend.
Daniels doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way often, but when he does, it’s when he goes overboard in aggression — his average depth of interception this season is 17.7 yards.
So, for his interception prop, we have to determine what we expect his pass diet to look like. As a big underdog, should we expect increased aggression? In the third meeting with a divisional opponent, will he take his medicine and thus bring little risk into the equation?
There’s no shortage of guesswork in evaluating a game plan, but I do think we can give ourselves an edge by understanding how the Commanders have deployed their rookie this year.
When facing the Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, and Dallas Cowboys this season (five games), Daniels’ aDOT is 10.5 yards (against the rest of the NFL: 6.2). Those opponents might seem random, but they all ranked 15th or worse in deep ball interception rate — why not test them deep if the turnover equity is low?
Well, the Eagles ranked fourth in that metric this season. That has me trending toward a conservative plan from Washington’s offense.
- Daniels’ deep INT, 2024%: 7.2% (25th, worse than Kirk Cousins/Bryce Young)
- Daniels’ INT% otherwise, 2024: 0.8% (third, better than Lamar Jackson/Joe Burrow)
You either agree with my analysis of a short script or you don’t — in either event, you have a lean on this prop!
Pick: Jayden Daniels under 0.5 interceptions
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Bearman: There is the old adage, that if you want the crown, you have to take it from the king. Well, that’s what the Buffalo Bills are facing, as they have numerous times in the past. Sure, they have been able to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season, but not in the playoffs where King Patrick Mahomes shines. The Chiefs are the champs until they are not and have made a living out of knowing how to win.
The Bills may be the best team in football, as we saw them show at several points in the regular season. However, all four of the Bills’ losses this season have come on the road, and they are going into one of the toughest environments in the NFL.
The season finale in New England aside, the Bills lost at the Houston Texans, at the Baltimore Ravens, and at the Los Angeles Rams, three playoff teams. While they have a solid defense, they have been doing it with their offense, scoring 30+ points 12 times in the regular season and 31 and 27 in the postseason.
The game’s fourth-best offense (according to PFN’s Offense+ metric) now faces a Chiefs defense that held opponents to 19.2 points per game, fourth-best in the league.
The biggest problem facing the Bills will be their ability to get off the field on third downs. They have one of the best offenses in the league on early downs, but they rank 31st in EPA per play on third downs; naturally, the Chiefs thrive on keeping those drives going, ranking fourth in third-down conversions and fourth in EPA per play on third downs.
Listen, the Bills are right there; maybe this is their time. They have looked better than the Chiefs all season, including when they played in November. The last two playoff matchups were final-possession games, which we will likely see again on Sunday, Jan. 26.
But that’s again where the Chiefs shine, going 11-0 in one-possession games this season and winning 16 straight one-possession games. I expect it to be close and tight, and when that happens, K.C. usually wins.
Pick: Chiefs -1.5
Katz: It’s pretty evident that Isiah Pacheco is not fully healthy. When he initially returned from injured reserve, the Chiefs quickly tried to push him back into the clear RB1 role. It didn’t take. Since then, he’s slowly been ceding more and more work to Hunt.
Over their past four games, Hunt has matched Pacheco’s snap share once and out-snapped him three times. Hunt has also scored in three straight games; meanwhile, Pacheco has yet to find the end zone since returning.
The Bills remain more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. While the Chiefs are obviously not about to rely on Hunt over Mahomes, they have shown a willingness to give the ball to Hunt on the goal line, especially ahead of Pacheco.
The Chiefs will score points in this one. If there is a rushing touchdown, it’s more likely to be Hunt than Pacheco. I will gladly take Hunt to score at +190.
Pick: Kareem Hunt anytime TD
Soppe: There are 100 different ways to bet on projected game scripts, and I like this path of doing it because I think we have some room for error. The price we are getting to back Cook comes at a bit of a discount because of how the first meeting played out, though I’m not sure we should be reading too far into that.
Leading rushers, Week 11 Chiefs at Bills, 2024:
- Hunt: 60 yards on 82.4% of Kansas City carries
- Allen: 55 yards on 38.7% of Buffalo carries
- Cook: 20 yards on 29% of Buffalo carries
Let’s start with the home team. The Chiefs didn’t have Pacheco active for that game, and they’ve essentially been employing a running back by committee ever since he returned:
Hunt vs. Isiah Pacheco snap rates, 2024:
- Week 13: Hunt leads 40.3% to 32.8%
- Week 14: Pacheco leads 47.7% to 30.8%
- Week 15: Tied at 37.3%
- Week 16: Hunt leads 45.7% to 32.9%
- Week 17: Hunt leads 48.3% to 34.5%
- Divisional Round: Hunt leads 48% to 30%
The Bills are the third-best run defense in terms of EPA, and the Chiefs own four of the top-10 pass-rate-over-expectation marks since 2021. This season, only teams with a truly elite running back have reached 130 RB rushing yards vs. Buffalo this season (Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, and Miami Dolphins). If we are splitting that small pie in half, what’s the ceiling for whoever you think leads K.C. in rushing yards?
Onto Buffalo.
James Cook carried Brandon Jones and the @Broncos defense 12.5 extra yards after contact, per @NextGenStats
📺: #DENvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/TFFoFGJnV1— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) January 12, 2025
Only twice this season has Allen out-rushed Cook — both instances can easily be explained away. That first meeting with the Chiefs saw Buffalo go with a committee approach (Cook: 38% snap share, his second-lowest in a game in which the Bills were motivated to win this season), and I think we can explain that away without much trouble.
Not only was it the Bills’ 11th consecutive week of football (had a Week 12 bye), but is it possible that they didn’t want to give the team who has ended three of their past four seasons much in the way of game tape?
The other instance was the 86-point shootout where the Bills were behind for 100% of their offensive snaps. If that’s how you think this game plays out, I’d avoid this prop, but all signs point to this coming down to the wire (the Chiefs are favored — they are tied for the fourth-most games with under 30 points scored while the Bills lead the league in games with 20+ points).
This season, Allen’s percentage of carries coming in the red zone is up from 29% to 32.5%; that may seem minor, but those attempts come with less yardage upside attached, so they need to be considered. Also on your radar should be that, since that bye, Cook is averaging 23.8% more yards per carry after contact than he was previously.
The opening prop markets had Cook projected for eight more rushing yards than Allen and 21 more than any member of the Chiefs — I don’t mind going over his posted number, but I like getting the plus money this way for the player I think is most likely to rip off a chunk gain.
Pick: James Cook to lead Chiefs/Bills in rushing yards
Soppe: There are two games on the slate this week, and that means we get to be a little creative (buckle up for Super Bowl week!).
Neither of these games has significant weather risk associated with wind or precipitation, but neither Philadelphia nor Kansas City is balmy this time of year. From a kicking environment standpoint, I found it interesting that teams (both home and road) have struggled by NFL standards to convert 50+ yard field goals this season in these specific stadiums.
- 50+ yard FG% in Philadelphia/Kansas City: 58%
- 50+ yard FG% in all other cities: 67.6%
Both of these games opened with a 47.5-point projection — that has me thinking that these teams will look to be aggressive.
Aggression can take two forms — the first is pretty clear, looking to move the chains. When sitting in the middle portion of the field (I’m labeling that as 30-55 yards from the end zone), these are four of the 10 best teams at converting late-down plays. That is, turning third downs into eventual first downs, be it on a third down itself or the following play on a fourth down.
2) Commanders: 64.5%
4) Chiefs: 60.3%
7) Eagles: 54.4%
9) Bills: 53.4%
The league average in those spots is 49.6%, but the average for our final four is 58.5%. This level of aggression puts these offenses in a position to score touchdowns more often as well as to kick shorter field goals that carry a higher conversion rate, both of which are fine by me for this wager.
We know that favorites are less reckless than underdogs. If they are on the fringe of field goal range, they are more likely to punt because of their perceived talent advantage, thus increasing confidence in their ability to win a game that comes down to a battle of field positioning. So, for this prop, I’m going to assume that Kansas City and Philadelphia are less likely to risk a long field goal.
As for these specific underdogs, why get crazy? The Bills (second: 23.7%) and Commanders (third: 23.5%) are among the very best in the percentage of punts pinning opponents inside their own 10-yard line. Let’s recap.
We have four of the best teams at moving the chains in those uncomfortable “should we go for it” spots on the field, a pair of underdogs with elite punting numbers, a pair of favorites with the most unstoppable offensive forces in recent memory (playoff Mahomes and the Tush Push), and field conditions that have proven prohibitive of long FG%.
That seems like a nice run out for a plus-money parlay — I like playing it this way because, if my train of thought is right, it pays off nicely. If not, I’m not losing two bets. If I split these bets, it’s a bigger loss than if I split the bets, but I’m willing to take that risk with fewer units tied up and my confidence in this train of thought.
I’ll leave you with one more list: the percentage of field goal attempts this season coming from 48+ yards this season (NFL average: 29.93%).
- Chiefs: 17.5% (fourth-lowest)
- Eagles: 23.81% (ninth)
- Commanders: 25.53% (10th)
- Bills: 26.47% (11th)
Pick: Under 47.5 longest FG in both games (+272)
