This Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois prediction continues 27 straight days of football and pushes midweek MACtion into Wednesday night. Both teams are adjusting to hopeful answers at the quarterback position, but which team will have the biggest advantage?
Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois Betting Preview
- Spread
Northern Illinois (-5) - Moneyline
Northern Illinois (-205); Central Michigan (+175) - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, IL - Predicted weather at kickoff
57 degrees, clear, 7-9 mph winds - How to watch
fuboTV, ESPN U
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
As always, FanDuel offers you $60,000 to craft your ideal lineup. Take advantage of any misplaced line below. And take advantage of FanDuel’s $10 bonus with your $1 entry here.
- QB Justin Lynch, Northern Illinois ($9,500)
- QB Ethan Hampton, Northern Illinois ($9,500)
- QB Jase Bauer, Central Michigan ($9,000)
- QB Daniel Richardson, Central Michigan ($9,000)
- RB Harrison Waylee, Northern Illinois ($9,500)
- RB Antario Brown, Northern Illinois ($8,200)
- RB Marion Lukes, Central Michigan ($8,000)
- RB RB Jake Tafelski, Central Michigan ($6,000)
- RB Mason Blakemore, Northern Illinois ($4,900)
- WR Cole Tucker, Northern Illinois ($9,000)
- WR Carlos Carriere, Central Michigan ($8,500)
- WR Kacper Rutkiewicz, Northern Illinois ($7,500)
- WR Jalen McGaughy, Central Michigan ($6,000)
- WR Shemar Thornton, Northern Illinois ($5,600)
- WR Noah Koenigsknecht, Central Michigan ($5,300)
- WR Finn Hogan, Central Michigan ($5,200)
- TE Joel Wilson, Central Michigan ($8,500)
- TE Tristen Tewes, Northern Illinois ($5,200)
- TE Liam Soraghan, Northern Illinois ($4,800)
The NIU offense is predicated around the running game, averaging well over 40 attempts per game. With Justin Lynch likely in place to start, those attempts should rocket. In his lone start this year, he didn’t even attempt 20 passes, and the value for him at quarterback would be if he scores.
As such, stick with Antario Brown or Harrison Waylee as your NIU offensive pieces in this game. Waylee has more yards, while Brown has breakaway speed and more touchdowns. Drawing the higher price tag, Waylee does contribute more out of the backfield, as he’s currently fourth on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.
Grab Waylee or Brown, but not both.
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NIU’s passing defense has allowed the most touchdowns in the country, and your plays must have at least one of Carlos Carriere or Jalen McGaughy. The massive men on the outside will make it easy for Jase Bauer if he should start, as their catch radiuses are among the biggest in college football.
Joel Wilson is a great flier at tight end as well. He’s a huge part of CMU’s offensive plan and leads the team in touchdowns this year. Grab Wilson to complete the trifecta, but at least get two of the Chippewas pass catchers in this favorable matchup.
Prediction for Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Preparing for CMU is no easy task, given their current quarterback predicament. Is it going to be Richardson once again? Or will it truly be Bauer time for the Chips? As we’ve seen elsewhere in college football, keeping your quarterback situation secretive up until kickoff is the new norm, so NIU has to be preparing for both.
Richardson has long been an accurate quarterback with great athleticism, though he struggled with decision-making. Bauer played the majority of the game once it was said and done against Bowling Green, including the entire second half, and it still didn’t matter as they lost to the Falcons.
The offense has sputtered for the majority of 2022, scoring more than 18 points in just two games against FBS competition and only once in their last five games overall. They have plenty of size on the outside from both Carlos Carriere and Jalen McGaughy, both tipping the scales at over 6’4″ and 200-plus pounds. But getting the ball to them accurately has been an issue this year.
The most considerable difference in their offense from a season ago, however, is the lack of success on the ground for Lew Nichols III. After averaging 5.4 yards per attempt and leading the nation in running a year ago, Nichols reached 100 yards in just one outing and was averaging just 3.6 yards per carry before an injury pushed him out of the lineup.
CMU has turned to Marion Lukes and Myles Bailey to fix the absence of Nichols, with little success save for the Akron game. Northern Illinois has the MAC’s second-ranked rushing defense, allowing just 120.9 yards on the ground this year so the sledding won’t get any easier here.
As good as their defense has been at stopping the run, NIU has been subject to big plays through the air. They’ve allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game in the league and a whopping 25 touchdowns through the air. That figure is the worst in the MAC and constitutes the most touchdowns allowed through the air in the country.
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So why is NIU favored over CMU if their defense is so bad? It’s their rushing attack that dictates their games, and it’s their biggest strength.
Especially with Justin Lynch at quarterback, the Huskies should be expected to run the ball at least 45 times in this one. They average just over 41 carries per game, but with Lynch at quarterback in Week 8 against Ohio, they ran it 48 times.
The rushing game is paced by Waylee and Brown, each averaging well over 5.5 yards per carry. The duo has scored 11 touchdowns on the ground this year, and Lynch has two scores on the ground this season as well.
However, it doesn’t help NIU’s cause that Central Michigan’s defense is actually the third-ranked defense in the MAC. They allow only 3.25 yards per attempt on the ground, and that’s largely been their biggest asset on the defensive side of the ball.
Bauer keeps it close if he goes, and CMU comes a point away from the upset. Either way, it’s a healthy margin to grab the under and back the Chips.
Prediction: Northern Illinois 28, Central Michigan 27