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CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Projections: Should You Draft Lamb in Fantasy This Year?

With a new OC in town, what are CeeDee Lamb's fantasy football projections in 2023, and should you draft the Dallas Cowboys WR?

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb ascended to the WR1 ranks last season. With a change at offensive coordinator and perhaps an offensive philosophy shift, can Lamb remain a WR1 in 2023? What is Lamb’s fantasy football projection?

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CeeDee Lamb’s 2023 Fantasy Projection

For each of the past two seasons, Lamb’s ADP had progression baked into it. You had to pay for the breakout before it happened, which is not something you should want to do in fantasy drafts.

Fortunately, it’s worked out each time. Lamb averaged 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie. That increased to 14.6 as a sophomore and 17.7 in his third season, where Lamb finished as the overall WR7.

Now firmly established as a WR1, there’s less projection and more certainty when it comes to Lamb’s output. He’s the alpha WR1 tethered to a top-10 quarterback in a perennially elite offense.

Last season, Lamb caught 107 passes on 156 targets for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns. He did this despite playing five games with Cooper Rush at quarterback. There is zero doubt in my mind we have yet to see Lamb’s best season. With that said, I’m not sure if it’s coming in 2023.

I hesitate to overrate the impact coaching has on players. But I am concerned about the departure of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Under Moore, the Cowboys had the top-scoring offense in the NFL in 2019 and 2021. They were only 10th last season, but they also played five games without Prescott.

Moore also liked to play fast and run a lot of no-huddle. Since 2019, the Cowboys went no-huddle at the fifth-highest rate in the league and led the NFL in pace of play at 25.3 seconds between snaps.

New OC Brian Schottenheimer has never orchestrated a top-five offense. He was brought in because head coach Mike McCarthy apparently doesn’t like how Moore wants to “light up the scoreboard.”

So, the question is, how much stock do we put into the notion that the Cowboys will suddenly play slow, run more, and score less? After all, it’s not like McCarthy had any trouble with his offenses scoring points when he was in Green Bay. Prescott is not Aaron Rodgers, but he’s proven capable of producing high-scoring offenses just the same.

Should You Draft CeeDee Lamb This Year?

Last season, Lamb posted an elite 28.7% target share. He was targeted on 30.1% of his routes run, the seventh-highest rate in the league, and averaged 2.62 yards per route run, the sixth-most in the league. The usage shouldn’t change.

While the Cowboys did trade for Brandin Cooks, he’s not going to suddenly take targets away from Lamb. If anything, Cooks’ presence allows the Cowboys to keep Lamb in the slot, where he lined up 45.5% of the time last season.

Lamb averaged an impressive 9.07 ppg from the slot alone. Only Cooper Kupp and Keenan Allen posted better fantasy numbers from the inside.

Lamb is currently my WR6. He’s also the WR6 by ADP, No. 13 overall. While the concerns about the Cowboys’ offensive scheme change are legitimate, it’s not enough to completely scare me off Lamb. He’s too talented of a player in too good of a situation to fade.

The Cowboys are still going to score a lot of points this season. Lamb is a very safe pick anywhere in the second round of 2023 fantasy drafts.

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