Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb reached his final form last season, finishing as the overall WR1. Now that he’s reached the top, can he stay there? Should he be the first WR off the board in 2024 fantasy football drafts?
Should You Select CeeDee Lamb at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 7th Overall (WR1)
- 2023 Performance: CeeDee Lamb reached his peak last season, finishing as the overall WR1 with an impressive 23.7 fantasy points per game. He consistently delivered elite performances, including multiple 30- and 40-point games, and never dropped below 16.5 points from Week 6 onward.
- Progression and Consistency: Lamb has improved in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points per game every year of his career. While this upward trajectory will eventually plateau, Lamb doesn’t need to exceed 23 points per game to remain a top WR in 2024.
- Offensive Role: The Cowboys treat Lamb as their alpha WR1, giving him a 29.9% target share and targeting him on 29.9% of his routes. His low 9.5-yard aDOT is offset by his league-leading 680 yards after the catch, making him one of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL.
- Ideal Situation: Lamb benefits from playing in a fantasy-friendly environment with a top-10 QB in Dak Prescott and little competition for targets. The Cowboys’ offense, despite Mike McCarthy’s run-first rhetoric, was fourth in the league in neutral game script pass rate and played at the second-fastest pace.
- ADP Analysis: With Justin Jefferson losing Kirk Cousins, Lamb is in the running to be the first WR off the board in 2024 drafts, alongside Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase. Lamb’s situation is ideal, making him a top-five pick and a strong candidate to be the top WR selected.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for CeeDee Lamb
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
1) CeeDee Lamb, WR | Dallas Cowboys
2) Christian McCaffrey, RB | San Francisco 49ers
3) Tyreek Hill, WR | Miami Dolphins
4) Bijan Robinson, RB | Atlanta Falcons
5) Breece Hall, RB | New York Jets
6) Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
7) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
Lamb’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Outside of his rookie year, fantasy managers have always been making advance payments on Lamb’s progression. He averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game as a rookie. Projected for a significant sophomore-year leap, Lamb didn’t quite live up to expectations with 14.6 points per game in his second season.
Nevertheless, his annual ADP kept rising. And fantasy managers kept paying for the massive breakout.
For the past two years, Lamb rewarded those who believed in him. He averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game in 2022, registering his first WR1 finish. Then, last season, he became the best wide receiver in fantasy.
#DallasCowboys WR CeeDee Lamb has 29 receptions of 20+ yards this season — most among #NFL WRs. 🔥
Is Lamb ELITE? 👀
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 3, 2024
Last year, fantasy managers paid the elite WR1 price for Lamb. He delivered. Lamb averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR1.
From Week 6 onward, Lamb produced at a level we may never have seen. Over the final 12 games of the season (including Week 18), Lamb gave fantasy managers two 40-point games, three 30-point games, and two more 25-point games. Most importantly, he never posted a single week below 16.5 fantasy points.
His scorching close to the season allowed him to narrowly edge out Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill for the crown. Lamb has now improved on his targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points per game in every year of his career.
That will inevitably stop. Lamb can’t be better every year. Very few wide receivers have ever averaged over 23 fantasy points per game. We shouldn’t project Lamb to do so in 2024, and he also doesn’t have to.
Is Lamb a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
What we want to see from NFL teams is them treating their alpha WR1 … like an alpha WR1. As we will see with some other top receivers, they are not all treated the way the Cowboys treat Lamb. The Cowboys understand Lamb is the best player on the team and go out of their way to get him the ball.
Last season, Lamb saw a 29.9% target share and was targeted on 29.9% of his routes run. The desire to get Lamb the ball early often explains his low 9.5-yard aDOT (average depth of target).
Fortunately, Lamb is one of the best receivers in the league after the catch. He led all receivers with 680 yards after the catch, which helped him reach 2.89 yards per route run — fifth in the league.
While Cowboys fans undoubtedly wish this team had more offensive weapons, from a fantasy standpoint, it’s a near-perfect environment. Despite Mike McCarthy’s claims about wanting to run the ball, the Cowboys were fourth in the league with a 61% neutral game script pass rate. They also played at the second-fastest pace in the NFL.
Lamb has a top-10 NFL quarterback in Dak Prescott, but no other wide receiver on the roster even touches the top 30. It’s just Lamb. Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson are solid alternatives, but they do not threaten Lamb’s volume.
It is extremely rare to find a wide receiver with elite talent who is also in a great offensive situation saddled with massive opportunity. 99% of the time, there is at least some issue with one of these things. Not with Lamb.
With Justin Jefferson losing Kirk Cousins, he is no longer in the running for being the top WR off the board. It comes down to Lamb, Hill, and Ja’Marr Chase.
I’ve debated Lamb and Hill all year. There’s truly no wrong answer. Either way, Lamb shouldn’t make it past the top five picks of 2024 fantasy drafts.