Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is set to continue his upward trajectory this season. He progressed from his rookie to his sophomore campaign and is poised to take another step forward this year. What can fantasy football managers expect from Lamb in the 2022 season, and what is his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
CeeDee Lamb’s fantasy outlook for 2022
From the moment the Cowboys drafted Lamb in 2020, it was only a matter of time before he overtook Amari Cooper as the team’s WR1. Well, in 2022, the Cowboys left no doubt about who their top guy is. They traded Cooper to the Browns, setting the stage for Lamb to truly ascend in his third season.
For the better part of my fantasy career, I’ve heard about the “third-year breakout.” In recent history, it’s been more of a second-year breakout. Lamb looks like a bit of a throwback. He averaged 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie and 14.6 as a sophomore. Lamb went from a mid-WR3 to a mid-WR2. In 2022, I’m expecting him to be a mid-WR1.
How the Cowboys’ depth chart impacts CeeDee Lamb’s fantasy projection for the season
Lamb’s target share still has room to grow. It was just 20.4% last season, which is quite low for a team’s alpha WR1. With Cooper gone, the Cowboys tried to replace him by signing James Washington and drafting Jalen Tolbert in the third round. Both of these players are useful, but neither is a threat to Lamb. Washington then suffered a training camp injury that will see him miss a significant portion of the season.
With Michael Gallup also set to miss the early portion of the season due to a midseason ACL tear, this passing attack is going to run through Lamb. I expect Lamb to be treated like a true WR1 finally. Dak Prescott is going to feed him early and often. Last year, he had six games with five targets or fewer. If that number is as high as two this season, I’d be surprised.
Lamb should be more of a downfield threat this season
There’s also more room for Lamb to grow in downfield usage. His 2.27 yards per route run was 12th in the league, but he only had a 9.4 average depth of target. The Cowboys need to use Lamb more downfield. It’s not like they’re a team that doesn’t take shots. Prescott averaged 4.8 deep attempts per game — more than Patrick Mahomes. Let Dalton Schultz be the safety blanket and free Lamb to run deeper routes.
Lamb’s ADP for 2022
The path to winning fantasy football leagues is rostering a player before his breakout increases his price. With Lamb, the price is already baked in. Lamb’s ADP is in the mid-second round. He is being drafted as the WR6/7. This is despite two seasons where Lamb hasn’t produced WR1 numbers, let alone anything close to what he has to do in order to justify his ADP.
With that said, the stars seem to be aligning for Lamb to be worth his draft price. While it would be nice if Lamb had more room to outperform his ADP, if we think a player is going to produce, he’s worth drafting. He is currently ranked 20th overall and as the WR8 in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings.
Lamb’s situation, opportunity, and talent all appear to be converging into the perfect storm for fantasy success in 2022. If you wanted to take Lamb once the big three receivers were off the board, I really wouldn’t fault you.