As a 23-year-old, CeeDee Lamb hit 100 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in 10 games last season and did so in both playoff contests, establishing himself as an elite fantasy football option in the process.
That performance was nothing short of special, and when you consider that Dak Prescott missed five games while logging his fewest yards per pass since 2017, there is plenty of room for this Dallas Cowboys offense to improve and thus elevate Lamb even further.
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CeeDee Lamb’s Fantasy Outlook
In 2022, Lamb racked up 1,359 receiving yards … and he was the only Cowboy to reach even 600 receiving yards. Heck, only two of his teammates had 425+ receiving yards, and both will be playing for the Houston Texans this season (Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown).
The team did bring in Brandin Cooks this offseason and is hoping that a healthy Michael Gallup (he missed September last season) can provide balance to this passing game, but there is no denying that Lamb’s target share will rank among the highest in the league.
The departure of Ezekiel Elliott will put more on Tony Pollard’s plate, a change in offensive talent that should open up this offense a bit more. Of course, Zeke’s pass blocking will be missed, but we are talking about a top-five offensive line that should give Lamb enough time to get open.
Can CeeDee Lamb Repeat His 2022 (WR7)?
What’s not to like? At 6’2”, Lamb has the size that you can’t teach, and then he consistently improvised on all of the things you can teach.
Drop Percentage:
- 2020: 9.0%
- 2021: 6.7%
- 2022: 3.2%
Percentage of Routes Resulting in a Target:
- 2020: 21.7%
- 2021: 22.6%
- 2022: 27.4%
He’s pretty clearly honing his craft, and with no change under center in Dallas, why wouldn’t these skills figure to sustain if not improve? “Trust” is tough to measure, but I like looking at key situation success rates as a way of getting a feel for the connection between a quarterback and his pass catcher.
Guess what? More growth. In his first two seasons, Lamb hauled in just 8 of 20 red-zone targets from Prescott, but he caught 8 of 12 last season. He owns a 69.6% career catch rate from Prescott, including 73.7% during the fourth quarter last season.
Big year-end numbers are one thing, but the way in which Lamb accumulated those numbers is another. Last season, Justin Jefferson had 10 games with at least 14 half-PPR points — he was the only receiver to have more such games than Lamb. For a receiver to truly elevate to elite status, he needs to produce week in and week out, something Lamb proved more than capable of doing in his third season.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Lamb at His ADP?
With a late-first-round ADP, Lamb isn’t going to come cheap, and while his profile is sterling, I’m not landing on his name too often. I worry about Mike McCarthy’s desire to “run the damn ball” (Lamb had 156 targets last season, fourth-most) — a concern that I don’t have for receivers like Stefon Diggs and Amon-Ra St. Brown in this same general draft range.
MORE: 2023 WR Fantasy Football Rankings
Also in this ADP neighborhood are two running backs I’d rather grab in Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb By no means am I avoiding Lamb, and I’ll happily pounce should he fall closer to the middle of Round 2. But as it stands right now, Lamb is not a player I’m going to be exposed to much in 2023.