With the 2023 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, fantasy football managers — particularly those in dynasty leagues — are trying to size up rookie values. The Cleveland Browns bolstered their receiving corps in the third round, selecting WR Cedric Tillman. What might dynasty managers expect from him?
Cedric Tillman Dynasty Outlook and Value
Rarely has an NFL franchise gone “all in” on any single player as much as the Browns went all in on Deshaun Watson. The Vikings’ acquisition of Herschel Walker in 1989 comes to mind but isn’t an accurate comparison.
Watson’s guaranteed contract — the largest in history — changed the market. It also put Cleveland in a box of its own making. Whether that box will constrain them for years or lead them to a coveted Super Bowl title remains up in the air. But it’s a box just the same, and all of their personnel decisions, whether directly or indirectly, must fit in this box.
Cleveland’s selection of Tillman in this year’s draft was highly deliberate, for all the obvious reasons. Watson objectively looked mediocre in his return to NFL action last season. Some might say “mediocre” is generous. Others might argue he played well enough to warrant excitement heading into 2023.
Whatever your views, the fact is that Watson is here to stay. At his best, he can still be one of the best QBs in the NFL. And if Watson’s best days are behind him, it’s not like Cleveland can bench him. He’ll keep slinging it regardless of his or his team’s success for the foreseeable future.
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One big question is how much slinging he’ll actually do. In his first full season as the Texans’ starter in 2018, Houston attempted the sixth-fewest passes in the league. DeAndre Hopkins feasted. Will Fuller was a solid fantasy starter in seven healthy contests. And that was it. There was no capacity for anyone else to step up.
In 2019, Watson averaged 1.4 more pass attempts per game, keeping him in the bottom half among NFL starters. He tacked on another 1.0 pass attempts per game in 2020. Last year, he averaged a career-low 28.3 throws, which for context, was less than the Ravens, who were among the least pass-throwing teams in the league.
What does this mean for Tillman’s fantasy outlook? Naturally, it’s complicated. But in the short term, this is a highly run-friendly team equipped with in-his-prime WR Amari Cooper, ascending 23-year-old Donovan Peoples-Jones, and underrated TE David Njoku. Meanwhile, David Bell — a third-round pick last year — looms.
On paper, the Browns have many receiver weapons and a quarterback who realistically could attempt fewer passes than two-thirds or more of his peers. That’s a rough combination when investing in a fantasy WR.
Although not blessed with high-end speed, Tillman is a big-bodied receiver who clearly can elevate Cleveland’s offense. He might need a year or less to leapfrog Peoples-Jones on the depth chart, and Bell’s slow development last year might have prompted this team to go big at wideout, even with holes to fill elsewhere.
The key here is that (a) Tillman has the skills to be a perennial top-30 fantasy wide receiver, with realistic top-16 upside down the road, and (b) he and even other Cleveland skill players are stuck in this box with Watson. That might prove to be a boon, or it could generate frustration and muted production if Watson isn’t the guy Cleveland thought they were signing.
Cedric Tillman Fantasy Ranking
PFN’s Tommy Garrett ranks Tillman 25th in his rookie dynasty mock draft, sandwiched between Chiefs WR Rashee Rice and Colts WR Josh Downs. As we know, rankings are largely subjective, because they hinge not only on objective truths about players but also perceptions of how they’ll be utilized, as well as personal fantasy preferences.
For example, you might be the kind of manager who loads up on 1B running backs (“complementary” RBs like AJ Dillon) and RB handcuffs, knowing that you can get massive upside at relatively little expense.
Or you might be a best-in-class manager who targets elite positional-skill players whenever possible, followed by filling positional gaps. Why take a running back who gets you 6-8 points when you can snag a wide receiver who averages 8-10?
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I fall into the former camp, which means I’m normally biased against guys like Tillman. But he brings unique value for a third-rounder in a crowded receiving corps, as there’s a clear path to a No. 2 receiver role by the end of his first season, or certainly in Year 2. Longer term, as Cooper fades or moves elsewhere, Tillman is built to be a No. 1.
As a result, I’m more bullish about Tillman, knowing that he could easily become a weekly fantasy starter by 2024. With so many mouths to feed in Cleveland, he’s currently undervalued. But I believe that thinking will shift by midseason, if not sooner.
I would even rank him ahead of Ravens WR Zay Flowers, whom Tommy has at 19. While Flowers might bring a more immediate fantasy boom, I think his ceiling is considerably lower than Tillman’s. In dynasty drafts, I want elite and near-elite positional players. Tillman is one of a handful of rookie WRs who can deliver. Managers simply need patience.