Seeing the post-Combine quarterback action around the league, Dan Snyder and Ron Rivera decided to make a move of their own. The Washington Commanders completed a trade for much-maligned Indianapolis Colts QB Carson Wentz. What does the trade mean for the Commanders’ future outlook — in the NFL Draft, and on the field?
Washington Commanders trade for Carson Wentz
On Wednesday afternoon, the Commanders finalized a trade with the Colts for quarterback Carson Wentz.
Washington swapped the 42nd pick for the 47th in the 2022 NFL Draft as part of the trade. Two third-round picks were also sent to the Colts — one this year and one next year. The third-round pick in 2023, however, turns into a second-round pick if Wentz plays 70% of plays for Washington this coming season.
Also notable is that Washington will take on all of Wentz’s $28 million cap hit in 2022, effectively using up most of the $33 million they had available ahead of free agency.
How does the move for Wentz impact Washington?
Getting burned by first-round picks like Robert Griffin III and Dwayne Haskins has perhaps scared Washington from committing too voraciously to a young signal-caller. The consequence of this fear is that Washington consistently refuses to go all-in on a solution. And on the surface, the Wentz move looks like another half-measure.
There’s pressure on the Commanders — both Snyder and Rivera — to win now. In that sense, it’s reasonable to add a veteran, but Wentz isn’t an all-too-inspiring option. For the better part of the past two years, Wentz has been a middling quarterback. His mechanics and decision-making remain startlingly inconsistent, dating back to his self-destructive 2020 season. Beyond that, there are plenty of rumors that he has character flaws as a leader off the field.
It seems like Washington is banking on the off chance they’ll get 2017 Wentz. But we’re a far cry away from that now. With a familiar coaching staff and a good supporting cast in Indianapolis, Wentz still couldn’t rise back to his peak level. And now the Commanders have spent most of their cap space for a wild card at QB in 2022, as well as several draft picks.
There is an out in Wentz’s contract in the 2023 season. Thus, Washington can cut its losses if it doesn’t pan out. But why give up so many resources if that’s a legitimate possibility? If Wentz plays all season and doesn’t pan out, you now lack some of the resources required to go all-in on a QB like C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young. On the surface, this move doesn’t command any confidence. But how do the NFL Draft implications factor in?
What do the Commanders do in the NFL Draft now?
Looking at Wentz in his current form, it doesn’t seem like acquiring him would preclude a team from taking a rookie QB in Round 1. But there’s pressure on Washington to compete now. Rivera’s team regressed after a 7-9 NFC East championship season, and another middling year could be the end for the current regime.
A rookie QB could get an opportunity to sit behind Wentz for a year. But the first-round pick you use on that quarterback directly impedes you from adding first-round talent elsewhere, which could help in the immediate timeline. Neither situation is ideal. But if the Commanders draft a QB even after trading for Wentz, they may get themselves stuck in a tug-of-war between contention and long-term building — a recipe which almost always leads to limbo.
In my opinion, the Commanders shouldn’t have sunk assets into Wentz. It’s a move that’s likely going to lead them to a 9-8 record at best. It’ll leave them searching for another long-term answer in 2023. But now that it’s happened, the best course of action is to forgo a quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft and add young talent at skill positions. That way, that talent helps Wentz if he unexpectedly progresses and remains the QB. Or it helps the next rookie QB to come in 2023.
Now that Washington has made the ill-advised move for Wentz, they have to own it and go all-in on giving him support. If they go half-and-half, they’re doomed to lose. Here’s how they can right the ship in Round 1.
Washington Commanders first-round options after Wentz trade
The Commanders have a quarterback. Not necessarily a good one, but they made their choice. If they have any shot at making it work, these are the options that make sense in Round 1 to maximize their time with Wentz.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
There are several things that need to happen for Washington’s defense to rebound after a down year in 2021. First, the Commanders’ stars need to stay healthy. Second, they need 2021 first-round pick Jamin Davis to take the next step. The first and second levels must improve, but Washington also drastically needs a quality-free safety. One of Kyle Hamilton‘s caliber would be a dream match.
Hamilton is as close to a blue-chip prospect as you’ll get in the 2022 NFL Draft. He’s 6’4″, 220 pounds, with a tantalizing mix of athleticism and instincts. A lot was made of his 4.59 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. But Hamilton still tested with elite explosiveness, and he plays incredibly fast with his processing, high-level football IQ, and playmaking ability. He’s a modern-age chess piece who would instantly take Washington’s defense up a level.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
Interestingly, Washington has invested a decent amount into the WR room over the past couple of years. Still, they need more playmakers. Terry McLaurin is very solid, but he can’t carry the unit on his own. Free agent addition Curtis Samuel is quickly souring after an injury-plagued 2021 campaign. And 2021 third-round pick Dyami Brown has yet to be productive.
At 11th overall, Garrett Wilson would be a quality addition. He’s a receiver who can line up in the boundary or the slot, and he’s one of the most complete, all-around dynamic threats in the 2022 class. Wilson can separate with his twitch and deception, giving Wentz easy targets. But he can also rise up and extend for tough passes, and he’s a slippery run-after-catch threat. Wilson changes the dynamic of Washington’s offense on Day 1.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
I have Jameson Williams ranked higher than Treylon Burks. But Williams won’t be available in his first year. For the Commanders, who’ve made it clear they’re trying to compete in 2022, that’s crucial. Ideally, I’d trade back and add more picks before selecting Burks. But if there’s another player to target in Round 1, Burks may be that guy.
At 6’2″, 225 pounds, with 33.5-inch arms, Burks has 4.5 speed and great on-field explosiveness. He improved on his burst numbers at his pro day, with a 35.5-inch vertical.
Burks is a phenomenal contested-catch threat with his length and propensity to attack the football. But he’s also a venerable RAC weapon who can splice through arm tackles and make defenders miss. Burks can be used on slants and drags in Scott Turner’s scheme, and he’d help free up space for McLaurin and Brown.
These options make the most sense for Washington. If it works out, Wentz and the Commanders can use these players to their advantage. If not, it’s time to go all-in for real and stop resorting to half-measures.