Washington Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz is on his third team in as many years. Can he prove to be a QB1 in fantasy football in 2022? What is Wentz’s fantasy outlook, and where does his current ADP sit heading into 2022 fantasy football drafts?
Carson Wentz fantasy outlook for 2022
The Indianapolis Colts traded significant assets to reunite Wentz with head coach Frank Reich, but by the end of the 2021 regular season, they had enough. Without a clear replacement plan or candidate on the roster, the Colts moved Wentz to Washington for a couple of mid-round picks.
Commanders head coach Ron Rivera has worked with a player in the same archetype as Wentz before: Cam Newton. Both Newton and Wentz are variance players who are not consistently accurate or perform as well in structured offenses. They rely on big plays to compensate for their shortcomings.
Wentz’s 2021 season was one of his best efficiency-wise despite being traded after. He finished 14th in fantasy points because he limited his interceptions to seven while posting a respectable 27 touchdowns. His biggest limitation was that he threw for less than 210 yards per game.
Indianapolis kept Wentz as close to the chest as possible with their strategy. His recklessness can be a strength and also a weakness. Washington may opt to let Wentz freelance more often because this team needs an offensive playmaker to push the unit to a higher level.
Wentz’s floor is Taylor Heinicke’s 2021 performance. Heinicke averaged just over 213 yards a game last year in his first season as a starter. Washington protected him as best they could, but Heinicke proved to be a backup-caliber talent. Wentz is easily an upgrade.
It’s difficult to envision Wentz being significantly higher than QB14 and a high-end backup in 2022. He’s an average talent in an offense that is good but not significantly better than Indianapolis’. He’d need offensive coordinator Scott Turner to open the playbook significantly to increase his passing yards and touchdown potential.
How the Commanders’ depth at receiver impacts Carson Wentz’s fantasy projection for this season
The biggest pro for Wentz’s move from the Colts to the Commanders is the increased depth at receiver. Michael Pittman Jr. was a good threat for Wentz’s penchant for big-bodied targets, but he’s not as talented as Terry McLaurin. And Washington has a slew of interesting young receivers around McLaurin.
McLaurin is the obvious star of the group. He’s continued to perform as a solid WR2 in fantasy leagues despite playing with some of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL since being drafted. He was tied for fifth with nine 30-yard receptions last year but was the only one in that range who played with a QB not considered to be elite.
First-round rookie Jahan Dotson headlines the best of the rest. Dotson can play inside or outside and win with quickness. He possesses elite hands and solid route running. He has a high floor and enough of a ceiling to be expected to start Day 1 and produce as well as most second receivers do.
Wentz’s deep-passing skill set can also get the most out of Dyami Brown, Curtis Samuel, and even tight end Logan Thomas when he returns from his torn ACL. Washington’s surrounding cast struggled mightily with a bad quarterback. Wentz isn’t bad, but he has those head-scratching moments that limit him.
However, he’s also maximized big receivers, tight ends, and speedy deep threats throughout his career. Expect Washington to continue prioritizing the ground game, then have Wentz be the X-factor off-play action as he looks for big plays downfield.
That all bodes well for Wentz to remain in the high QB2 mix for your fantasy team.
Wentz’s ADP for 2022
There’s a chasm between quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, and Wentz that doesn’t make a lot of sense. Wentz, though erratic on the field and untrustworthy within the locker room, is a fine fantasy option for those seeking backup help. And his ability to create out of the scheme and on the ground gives him unusual upside for any given week.
He showed more efficiency in 2021 with the Colts and still produced a respectable fantasy season. The explosiveness and upside of throwing for 30 or more scores is likely gone because Washington is also conservative. But he and Jameis Winston are the only ones in this tier who could reach that scoring potential.
Wentz is someone I’m prioritizing in his range because he’s a much better value than those being taken 30 players higher. You might only need him for a week or two, and chances are he’ll have a stronger output than most QB2s.