Inside a week-long fantasy football negotiation
Corey’s point of view
Let me start by saying that I am a value-focused and quantity based traded in fantasy football. I focus on gaining value in my trades, even if it’s only a little, and by making as many trades as possible, I am able to turn small assets into big ones over time.
Now when Ryan came to me about exchanging Prescott for Carson Wentz, he put me in the driver’s seat for two reasons. One, I know he is a Cowboys fan, and two, I have the power in the trade because I have the clear best player involved. As I talked about in the weakness section of my team, my QB depth is a concern for me, so downgrading my QB1 to an oft-injured Wentz, while my QB2 is Stafford, will take a good amount of value gain to make me consider the move.
Naturally, Ryan wanted Gallup in the trade as well, and Gallup is part of a group of three WRs I love that are all close in ADP. I rank them Calvin Ridley, Gallup, and then Boyd. Ryan owns the other two of this group, and I must have tried ten different offers involving both Ridley and Boyd before Ryan basically told me to shove off about it. So, I decided to stick to the small upgrade from Gallup to Ridley and go from there.
At this point in negotiations, we have Carson Wentz and Calvin Ridley from Ryan’s side and Dak Prescott and Michael Gallup from mine. I still feel queasy about the downgrade at QB, so I went looking for ways to add more value for me. It was at this point that I turned to rookie draft picks.
I know Ryan is looking to move up in the rookie draft since his first pick wasn’t until the 2.04. We went back and forth on the rookie picks for a while because he wanted the 1.06 from me, but I didn’t want to give that up without getting Boyd+ back. He asked about my rookie 2.02 pick, and I am not afraid to look into future drafts for good value, so I decided to ask for his 2021 first and his rookie 2.04 this year to give me the extra value I needed to make up for the downgrade at QB.
He countered by swapping out his 2.04 for his 3.11 pick, which I did not feel was enough, so I countered with swapping the 3.11 for his 2.08. This was it! We had finally found the compromise that we both could agree on. He landed his favorite team’s QB and WR, and I upgraded at WR and draft capital. After a week’s worth of back and forth, we finally hit that euphoria of a completed trade in a dynasty league. There is nothing quite like it, and that feeling is exactly why I consider myself a trade addict and dynasty junkie.
[sv slug=dynastysocial]The final result of the trade
Ryan adds: Prescott, Gallup, rookie 2.02
Corey adds: Wentz, Ridley, rookie 2.08, and 2021 rookie first
Why Corey won this trade
I look at trades like this in pieces. The first piece is the swap of QB and WR duos. For me, Dak and Gallup are worth more than Wentz and Ridley, but not by much. I have Prescott as my QB5 in dynasty and Wentz as my QB8 and a tier below the likes of Prescott and Russell Wilson. As I already said, Ridley and Gallup are very close to me, with Ridley having just a slight edge.
The second piece in this trade is the rookie picks involved, and I think I smashed in value here. The biggest positive about the 2020 rookie class is the depth. Sure 2.02 is more valuable than the 2.08, but I don’t think the gap is as big as other years. If you throw a 2021 first-rounder in with the 2.08, I’d say that I easily win this second piece of the trade. The 2021 class looks much better than we originally thought since we surprisingly saw multiple quality RBs go back to school this year, and we know we have the likes of Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields at the QB position. I’m ecstatic to add a future first here.
Overall, I think I clearly won this trade in terms of value, which is what I care most about, especially in the offseason. Ryan may have landed his favorite players, but I’ll continue to take wins in the value game and use it to land myself a championship.
Why Ryan won this trade
Obviously, the first thing people will think about when they see this trade is that I let my fandom impact my decision making. Yes, I am a Dallas Cowboys fan. However, making this move wasn’t necessarily just about getting two of my favorite players. It was about winning this thing in 2020.
My mindset going into a first-year dynasty league is simple, I want to win, and I want to win now. As important as “value” and rookie picks are, it will not do you any good if you constantly have to wait for these prospects to develop. It is rare that a rookie will enter the league and light it on fire. Admittedly, it does happen. But it is not something that I see this rookie class doing.
When I compare Dak and Wentz, there is a more significant margin than what I think Corey has in his mind. Dak battles for the top QB in the NFL last year, and fell short only to Lamar Jackson. His offensive line remains fairly intact, and their defense has gotten significantly worse. In my opinion, this Cowboys team can end up similar to the Chiefs, winning by outscoring their opponents.
In a piece I did last week, I broke down the viability of the Cowboys’ offensive weapons in dynasty football leagues.
“Dak finished the year with 4,902 passing yards, a 65.1% completion percentage, 30 TDs, and only 11 interceptions. From a fantasy standpoint, he generated 337.78 fantasy points and was able to play in all 16 games.”
Those numbers are impressive, but the most important is the mention that he played in all 16 games. Wentz has yet to do that in the NFL and has suffered a plethora of injuries, such as a back vertebral fracture, a wrist fracture, a rib fracture, and an LCL/ACL tear. The Eagles offensive line hasn’t improved their protection, and the QB now has fewer weapons than he did last year.
Prescott is my QB4 for 2020, whereas I have Wentz ranked as my QB12. This is why the discrepancy between who won this trade is so lopsided. I think I am lower on Wentz than most. According to Sports Injury Predictor, they think Wentz has a 39.8% chance of suffering another injury this year.
Letting Ridley go was tough because I lost the Ryan-to-Ridley connection, and I believe that Ridley is going to have a very good year. But, adding Gallup in an offense that I think can improve on what it did last season, makes up for it. Prescott lost both Randall Cobb and Jason Witten in the offseason, and I can see Gallup playing in the slot more.
I believe I won this trade because I added a QB that could finish as the best fantasy QB in the league. I took a very small downgrade at WR but added a second-round rookie pick at 2.02. Yes, losing my first-round pick next year is tough, but I have confidence that my RB depth could help me find a way to make a mid-season trade to get one back.
Here is how the twitter community felt about the trade.
Just made a trade in a 12-team, SF, Ppr, TE Prem PFN league with @rygosling!!
🦖- Dak, Gallup, 2.02
🦈- Wentz, Calvin Ridley, 2.08, and 2021 1st
— Corey Ashburn (@AshburnPFN) April 17, 2020
Ryan’s final roster can be found here.
Corey’s final roster can be found here.
Who do you think won?