The Carolina Panthers‘ fantasy preview talks about the fading value of Adam Thielen, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ fantasy football outlook evaluates the value of Chris Godwin both this week and moving forward.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Buccaneers -5.5
- Total: 37
- Panthers implied points: 15.8
- Buccaneers implied points: 21.3
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield: With multiple TD passes in four of his past five games (he failed to throw multiple TD passes in four of five games prior), Mayfield is making a run at the QB streamer tier. You could argue that he’s already a part of it.
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Mayfield’s average fantasy finish over his past five games that were not played against the 49ers is QB11. This matchup isn’t prohibitive, and while I have him ranked “only” as QB15, he’s part of a tier that extends from QB12 through QB17.
Mayfield’s downside is this offensive line (10 sacks over the past two games and 3+ sacks in five of his past six), a flaw that I’m not sure is exposed in this matchup. I don’t hate the idea of stacking up the Bucs in a GPP DFS build.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard: Most fantasy analysis is the usage of past data to help make future decisions. Analysts use trends, health, and a dozen other factors to help them best form educated guesses about what the next week will hold.
That’s how most analyses work. The Panthers backfield, however, seems to be a moving target with little rhyme or reason. In situations like that, all we can do is present what happened most recently and go from there. In Week 12, Hubbard held a 47-27 snap edge over Miles Sanders (26-7 in routes) and posted his third top-25 performance in four games.
The 5-1 edge in targets is what has my attention the most. I’m not sure carries in this offense are going to be all that valuable, but receptions hold much more upside. I have Hubbard ranked a handful of spots higher, but neither Panther is a safe start.
Hubbard sits just inside of my top 30, while Sanders is on the outside looking in.
Miles Sanders: “An investment fraud that pays existing investors with funds collected from new investors.”
That’s a Ponzi scheme. That is also how current investors in Sanders feel. We were told the coach spoke all summer about how this team paid Sanders and wanted to help him rediscover his receiving numbers from his rookie season.
Early in the season, it was working. We investors were being paid off in funds (catches) collected from new investors (the Panthers) with 12 receptions in September. The house of cards has come crashing down since.
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Sanders has nine catches since and hasn’t returned top-25 value in a single game since Week 3. Over his past three games, he’s averaging just 2.6 yards per carry and has looked even worse.
I have no feel for this backfield. That’s a lie. I have a feeling for this backfield. It’s sadness. It’s a disappointment.
Fantasy managers who don’t have to waste brain power on this backfield are lucky.
Rachaad White: The narrative for the majority of the season has been that White is only a productive fantasy option because of his consistent work in the passing game. Work in this industry long enough, and you’ll understand that the only thing we know is that we don’t know anything.
White ran for 100 yards and only saw two targets last week in Indy, showing some rushing chops that we weren’t sure he had. To be fair, I’m still not sure efficiency on the ground is something we can count on, but it was good to see him produce top-20 numbers for a sixth straight game in a different style.
To answer your question, no. No, I’m not worried about the one-week drop-off in White’s passing-game numbers. He ran a route on 82.1% of Mayfield’s dropbacks last week and should be just fine in that regard moving forward.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen: Rookie quarterbacks are no fun. It’s easy to watch C.J. Stroud and believe that development can happen in a hurry, but that’s the exception – not the rule.
Thielen was one of the more productive receivers in October with Bryce Young producing, but as the NFL has caught up to him, Thielen’s fantasy stock has tanked.
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Through the four games in November, Thielen saw 30 targets resulting in 147 yards and zero scores.
A pass funnel defense like the Bucs’ could be the get-right spot that Thielen needs. They blitz at the third-highest rate to hide their secondary, leaving them vulnerable to a pristine route-runner. Thielen has seen at least 10 targets in six of his past nine games, and if that trend continues, his return to WR2 status is going to be in the cards (my WR20).
Mike Evans: A pair of touchdowns allowed Evans to finish Week 12 as the most productive receiver in fantasy (6-70-2) — his fourth top-12 finish of the season per the Week 13 Cheat Sheet. With a score in three straight games and six in his past six, Evans’ skill set is being maximized by what Mayfield likes to do.
The touchdown equity is nothing new, but the elevated floor is. Evans has seven games with at least five catches – a level of involvement that I suspect is sustainable. Even if you’re pessimistic about the volume, this would profile as one of those peak Evans matchups, given that the Panthers are the second-worst red-zone defense. You’re playing him and continuing to profit from the discount you acquired him at this summer.
Chris Godwin: The veteran receiver carries some name value that exceeds what he is currently offering fantasy managers. He’s seen 6-7 targets in five straight games, and that role is generally something that would have my attention. Still, he’s been held under 55 receiving yards in each of those games.
After four straight games ranking inside the top 30, Godwin has spent his past four on the outside looking in at the top 35. He’s officially entered “prove it before I trust it” territory.
Could he get there this week against a Panthers defense that misses over eight tackles per game (league-high)? It could happen, but I’m content to be a week late, given his struggles with Mayfield under center.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton: There is no discussion (nor should there be) of Otton being a fantasy league winner, but with at least 8.5 PPR points in five of his past six, you’re not losing ground in your matchup by playing him.
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He rarely comes off the field, and the Bucs are going to have a higher implied total this week than most — plug him in and let the rest of your lineup do the heavy lifting.
Should You Start Drake London or Chris Godwin?
I’m not excited about starting either of these receivers (both outside of my top 30), but I lean toward Godwin due to the matchup. He has struggled to offer much upside, but the floor has been reasonable and I expect that to continue in a good spot against the Panthers.
London offers upside by being his team’s top pass catcher, but in a brutal spot against a Jets team that is capable of melting the clock and making this a slugfest, the downside is simply too much to overlook.
Should You Start Garrett Wilson or Adam Thielen?
I’m giving Thielen one more week. He’s been struggling, but he gets a plus matchup against the pass funnel Buccaneers while Wilson could be stuck under the thumb of A.J. Terrell.
I expect both to see enough volume to make them reasonable options, but if I had to bet on the catch rate for one of these two, my money sides with Thielen.
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