The Carolina Panthers‘ preview evaluates the fading fantasy football value of WR Adam Thielen, while the New Orleans Saints‘ fantasy outlook takes a value check on their pass catchers.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
- Spread: Saints -5
- Total: 38.5
- Panthers implied points: 16.8
- Saints implied points: 21.8
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston: I don’t want to be overly dramatic, but the health of Derek Carr will have a greater impact on fantasy this week than anything he has done on the field. Should he sit with a multitude of injuries, Winston slides into the starting lineup and excitement follows.
For better or worse, Winston is not the least bit shy about giving his playmakers a chance to thrive. Or to crash and burn. The fact of the matter is that the range of outcomes for all involved increases in a significant way with Winston under center, and that makes this offense, as a whole, more fantasy-friendly.
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If he gets the start, YOLO Winston slides into QB13 in my Week 14 rankings and is immediately an option for those looking to pull off a big upset with the fantasy regular season ending.
Carr has finished each of his past three games outside of the top 15 (one TD pass on 78 attempts) and isn’t near my radar if he finds a way to take the field.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard: With a 47-23 snap edge last week over Miles Sanders, Hubbard is pretty clearly operating as the featured back in Carolina’s offense. Now, you could argue if “lead RB in Carolina” is a role that even matters, but I don’t think you can deny that Hubbard is the option in this limited offense that needs to be ranked higher and considered as a Flex option.
He ran for 104 yards and a pair of scores against a solid Bucs run defense last week. The per-carry upside is capped (143 carries and his longest gain is 21 yards), and with zero catches last week (he and Sanders ran 10 routes apiece), there’s no denying the floor.
Hubbard slides inside of my top 30 due to this matchup — the Saints allow the sixth-most yards per carry and the sixth-highest percentage of yards gained to come on the ground. The floor is low given the implied point total for the Panthers, but if they can keep this game close, Hubbard should do enough to prove worthy of your Flex spot.
Miles Sanders: If you’re grinding out a matchup and trying to navigate injuries, I don’t mind the idea of cutting Sanders in an effort to get more upside at your disposal this week.
Sanders hasn’t scored since September and has single-digit carries in five of his past seven games. The role in the passing game is nowhere near what the team hinted at it being this summer. Thus, Sanders doesn’t have many paths to fantasy production.
He’s not a top-40 running back for me this week and won’t be anywhere near my Flex range moving forward unless something significant changes.
Alvin Kamara: No reason to deep dive here. Kamara scored twice last week and has 60 catches in his nine games.
He’s getting enough work on the ground to take advantage of the fact that 40.9% of yards gained against the Panthers come on the ground (third highest), and New Orleans excels at getting him into space — something that should allow him to thrive against a Panthers team that is missing a league-high 8.3 tackles per game.
Kamar’s projected point total takes a hit if Winston is under center, but not enough to knock him out of my RB1 ranks. If that’s the case and you want to use it as an excuse to look elsewhere in DFS, fine. But when it comes to season-long leagues, there’s zero brain power that needs to be used on Kamara.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen: The bottom has really fallen out for the veteran receiver as the NFL continues to make Bryce Young uncomfortable. Long gone are the days of top-20 finishes where the volume was safe and the catch rate was impressive. Thielen has turned nine targets into 27 yards over the past two weeks and has just one finish better than WR40 since Week 8.
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The Saints pressure opposing QBs at the fourth-lowest rate (17.6%), so if you wanted to squint and talk yourself into Thielen as a Flex option, you can. It’s not for me. He averaged six yards per target when these teams first met back in Week 2, and I think that’s about what you can expect this week with very limited scoring equity.
Thielen is a fringe top-30 WR for me, ranking alongside other receivers with iffy play under center like Garrett Wilson, Jakobi Meyers, and Demario Douglas.
Jonathan Mingo: I’m listing him here as a player to watch, not play. He was on the field for 95.8% of the offensive snaps last week (91.4% route participation), which is interesting for a rookie receiver who is being asked to develop on the fly.
The part of Mingo’s Week 13 performance that caught my eye was his usage pattern. For the season, his aDOT is 46.2% higher than Thielen, but last week, it was 20.8% lower than his veteran teammate.
Either we are seeing a role change to play to Mingo’s strengths or it was simply a goofy week. I’m not comfortable in guessing which is the case and, thus, not playing Mingo in any situation. But if we get a second week of adjusted usage, then we might be talking about a sneaky PPR option. My interest is piqued.
Chris Olave: After three straight games with under 60 receiving yards, Olave has cleared 90 in each of his past three — upside that is all sorts of interesting no matter who is under center. But if he’s hitting his stride as a playmaker with Winston more than willing to roll the dice on those deep targets??
The Panthers are the second-worst red-zone defense in the league, giving Olave (three scores on 111 targets this season) the potential to lead the position in fantasy points this week. Of course, in order to have access to that ceiling, you have to swallow some risk.
Olave is a top-15 receiver no matter who is under center for New Orleans, but his status as a potential GPP winner is only there if Winston is taking the snaps.
Rashid Shaheed: The thigh injury that forced Shaheed to exit Week 12’s loss in Atlanta early resulted in him missing his first game of the season last week. The burner totaled just 55 yards in November, as the boom/bust profile has largely been bust in this underwhelming offense.
We’ll see where his status lands the closer we get to kickoff, but trusting Shaheed at this point in the season is nothing short of a leap of faith. I understand that the receiver position lacks reliable depth due to the rash of QB injuries, but you can do better than a one-trick pony like this against a defense that is largely gashed on shorter passes.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill: He’s simply a cheat code, and if you’re not locking him into lineups at this point, you’re doing fantasy wrong. On Sunday, against the Lions, Hill led the Saints in rushing yards (59) and scored once on his 13 carries to go alongside a pair of targets and two pass attempts.
Hill has finished five of his past seven games inside the top 10 at the position, and we have no evidence to suggest that changes. Sure, he’s limited as a pass catcher in the traditional sense, but why should we care?
Fantasy football is a box-score game, and the role Hill holds in this offense would make him a viable option if listed simply as a “utility” player — the way fantasy baseball handles designated hitters.
But he’s not. Hill’s listed as a tight end, the position with the least amount of reliable depth in our game, and a high-touch count role that includes plenty of usage inside the red zone. He’s impossible to bench right now.
While this offense will look different if Winston is under center, I’m not sure it impacts Hill in a significant way. Winston’s aggression would, in theory, lower Hill’s target expectancy, but that’s not why we’re buying him in the first place.
With a turnover-prone QB like Winston, I’d argue that New Orleans would be more likely to go to Hill as they approach the scoring zone, and that’s all we need. Hill is easily a top-10 TE for me this week, and that’s going to be the case for the final month of the fantasy season.
Juwan Johnson: As if an air ball wasn’t bad enough, Johnson had his hands on an early pass that was then intercepted, making him even less valuable than the raw stat line suggests. The most disappointing part of this underwhelming effort was that Jimmy Graham scored and that the TE position as a whole really didn’t get many chances to produce through the air (20.7% target share split among three players).
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Considering that Johnson has only scored once this season and has yet to clear 45 receiving yards, you can look elsewhere. I don’t think his value changes in a significant way with however the QB situation plays out this week. I’d rather start Gerald Everett, Kyle Pitts, and Isaiah Likely this week with a reasonable amount of confidence.
Should You Start Adam Thielen or Calvin Ridley?
I’m siding with Calvin Ridley here, even if Trevor Lawrence sits out. With Christian Kirk sidelined, I don’t think the target difference between Thielen and Ridley will be great, so I’m betting on more of the unknown.
In Carolina, we know that every target Thielen earns comes with very limited potential, whereas there is hope in Jacksonville for Ridley’s targets to be worth slightly more than that.
To be honest, I’m not all that comfortable starting either this week, but I would go with Ridley’s single-play upside if forced to choose.
Should You Start Taysom Hill or David Njoku?
David Njoku has been vacuuming in targets from backup quarterbacks in Cleveland, and that creates a stable floor. But his ceiling is nowhere near that of the utility knife that is Hill.
It’s very clear that Hill’s versatility is now a feature of this Saints offense, and with QB Derek Carr banged up, that role stands to grow.
The goal-line role alone for Hill puts him inside of my top 10, and the fact that we can expect 10-ish opportunities has him flirting with my top five at the position.
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