The Arizona Cardinals offense is an intriguing area in terms of fantasy football outlook. Marvin Harrison Jr. comes into his rookie year with stacks of potential and is set to be the team’s WR1. However, he is commanding a high price in drafts, which could be hard to pay back.
Behind Harrison, the combination of Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, and Zay Jones is far from ideal, but can any of them offer fantasy value in 2024? Let’s examine the Cardinals’ WR depth chart and see where we can find fantasy value in drafts this year.
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 289.2 (193.6 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 95.6
- Receiving Yards: 1433.9
- Receiving TDs: 8.0
This isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison, but I could see Harrison’s role being similar to that of DeAndre Hopkins’s first year with Arizona. Both are players who can dominate in isolation and contested-catch situations as X-receivers, allowing the shorter Kyler Murray to push the ball outside the numbers — which is where the data suggests he prefers to go with the football.
D-Hop saw a 29.4% target share in 2020 with 160 total targets, which helped him produce 115 receptions for 1,407 yards and six touchdowns on his way to a WR4 overall finish in full-PPR formats.
Obviously, Harrison will still have to acclimate to the NFL game and isn’t guaranteed to see the same amount of volume as a prime Hopkins in a completely different offensive scheme in his rookie year. Yet, the similarities in situation, quarterback, and skill set do exist enough to make me believe this type of year is within the range of outcomes.
Harrison is going to be quite volatile regarding his ADP in fantasy football drafts this year. He’s currently coming off the board at No. 16 overall as the WR9, but that varies quite widely in the different mocks we do.
This may feel like an aggressive fantasy ranking at the moment, but the path to an elite target share for an immensely gifted receiver prospect certainly makes a top-10 fantasy finish at the WR position within Harrison’s range of outcomes in 2024.
Sure, this second-round price tag means you are relying on him to be your WR1 or WR2, depending on your roster construction. This makes it feel like you are drafting Harrison far closer to this ceiling than his potential floor.
The case can certainly be made that going with other veteran options in the same range, such as Davante Adams, Chris Olave, and Drake London, would likely be the safer course of action. However, we saw both Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson finish as the WR5 and WR6, respectively, in their rookie seasons.
I believe Harrison is that type of talent, which means I would feel comfortable selecting him in the second round of fantasy drafts this season.
– Derek Tate, PFN Fantasy Football Analyst
Michael Wilson’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 137.2 (90.8 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 46.3
- Receiving Yards: 689.9
- Receiving TDs: 3.7
It’s hard to truly gauge Arizona’s offense from last season, as half the year was spent with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune at quarterback. Rookie third-rounder Wilson was able to earn an 80% snap share, giving him ample opportunity to command targets. For the most part, though, he couldn’t.
Wilson only saw a 13.7% target share despite operating as the primary Z receiver opposite Hollywood Brown. He was targeted on just 14.4% of his routes run, 83rd in the league.
There is one positive metric to take away from Wilson’s 2023 season. His 9.7 yards per target was 15th in the league. Wilson wasn’t targeted often, but when he was, he was efficient.
The Cardinals will also benefit greatly from a full season of a healthy Murray. Harrison is going to lead Arizona in targets by a wide margin, and TE Trey McBride should be second. But Murray can definitely sustain a third option. The question is whether it will be Wilson.
In addition to drafting Harrison, the Cardinals also signed Jones. The journeyman isn’t the most talented player in the world, but there’s a non-zero chance he plays ahead of Wilson, which would be a death sentence to the sophomore’s fantasy value.
Even if Wilson is able to fend off Jones, the team is pretty high on Dortch, their slot receiver. If Dortch starts in the slot, Wilson has to start ahead of Jones on the outside. Otherwise, Wilson becomes the WR4, which is miles away from being fantasy-relevant.
Wilson’s ADP sits at WR78, meaning he’s probably not getting drafted in most fantasy leagues. I have him at WR84, which is a meaningless distinction.
There are too many talented receivers with clearer paths to upside. As a result, I am not even looking at Wilson outside of very deep leagues.
– Jason Katz, PFN Fantasy Football Analyst
Greg Dortch’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 113.6 (65.4 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 48.2
- Receiving Yards: 448.0
- Receiving TDs: 2.3
Dortch is an undersized slot receiver (5’7”) who showed some glimpses of target-earning potential down the stretch last season. He’s a nice complement to the downfield abilities of Harrison and McBride for the Cardinals, but not one that offers a ton of upside for fantasy managers.
Wilson is the more appealing WR2 in this offense, but Arizona’s offense very well could peak after its Week 11 bye. That would be the time to add Dortch as a nice depth piece with a viable PPR floor.
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Fantasy Football Analyst
Zay Jones’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 111.8 (64.1 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 47.7
- Receiving Yards: 487.4
- Receiving TDs: 2.4
The five-game suspension (personal conduct) to open the season wipes Jones off of redraft boards. His role in the Cardinals’ offense wasn’t safe in the first place, and now, with a delayed start (and no IR eligibility), you can do better in the late rounds.
If you believe in the scoring profile (five TDs for the Jaguars last season), add him after waivers clear heading into Week 5. But by no means is that a priority assuming that all members of Arizona’s offense remain healthy.