The Arizona Cardinals missed the playoffs but have a lot to build on going into 2025. With Kyler Murray getting a full season of play, it is now fair game to evaluate his future with the Cardinals going forward. Among 34 quarterbacks with over 250 attempts, Murray finished 13th in EPA (expected points added) per play. There are a plethora of mixed opinions on if this is good enough to win a Super Bowl.
The Los Angeles Rams are 9-6 and can clinch the NFC West division with a win and a strength of schedule tiebreaker. This is a dangerous team offensively and they have some young studs defensively which makes this a team you don’t want to see in the playoff.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Rams -6.5 - Moneyline
Rams (-310); Cardinals (+250) - Over/Under
47.5 total points - Game Time
8:10 p.m ET - Location
SoFi Stadium
Cardinals vs. Rams Preview and Prediction
Arizona ranks 10th in EPA per play, eighth in success rate, 26th in passes of 20 or more yards, and third in rushes of 10 or more yards, according to TruMedia. As good as these stats sound, their top five offensive performances came against bottom 10 defenses and the Miami Dolphins. One of their biggest weaknesses this season came against the blitz.
When blitzed, their offensive performance drops to 29th in EPA. I tried to breakdown this performance into components to see which part of their team struggled the most against the blitz. I can definitively rule out Murray after find out that their turnover and sack EPA were both average when blitzed and Murray is 25th out of 43 quarterbacks in EPA when blitzed.
Arizona’s offensive line ranks 13th in pressure allowed on blitzes, showing it wasn’t their fault either. Among 120 players with over 50 targets, Trey McBride ranks 34th in yards per route run when blitzed and the top three receivers rank 97th, 112th, and last. Pairing this with their ranking of 20th in PFF separation score and I think it’s a fair assessment to blame both the play calling and the receiving core.
Luckily, they face a Rams defense that blitzes the 25th most in the league and is about average (15th) in pressure generated. Despite a ranking of 28th in defensive EPA per play, the Rams’ defense has been improving in large part due to having such young playmakers all over the place. Five of their 11 current starters are in their first or second year in the league.
Since their bye week in week six; the Rams defense actually ranks 11th in EPA and 13th in pressure generated. The two main stars of the defense are rookie Jared Verse and second-year player Kobie Turner. Both have been wreaking havoc on opposing offensive lines. In ESPN’s defensive/offensive line metrics, Verse ranks 13th in pass rush win rate and fourth in run stop win rate among all edge defenders.
Offensively, the Rams rank 11th in EPA, seventh in success rate, 23rd in passing explosives, and 28th in rushing explosives. At just four yards per rush (31st) and -0.02 EPA per rush (13th); the Rams offense has had to lean on the passing game rather than a balanced attack. They also lack explosive plays, meaning they have to drive down the field consistently and limit turnovers.
They have done just that, ranking fifth in least amount of EPA lost to turnovers this season and eighth in EPA lost to sacks. Arizona’s defense will have a tough test, especially considering they have been the main issue with the team this season. They rank 27th in EPA, 31st in success rate, fifth in passing explosive rate allowed, and 23rd in rushing explosive rate allowed.
They don’t get pressure much (25th) and blitz at an average rate (16th). This will need to be a focal point against a Rams offense that struggles heavily against pressure, ranking 27th in EPA in such situations. This is because Matthew Stafford, for whatever reason; does not scramble. Ever.
The Rams have had two plays that were deemed scrambles this season out of 921. That’s an absurd 0.21% of plays. With that being said, this isn’t because Stafford lacks the creativity and playmaking that he has had for much of his career. In fact, the Rams are 13th in EPA from inside the pocket and seventh in EPA from outside the pocket.
Overall, the Rams are clearly the better team and are peaking at just the right time. With the Cardinals season pretty much over I cannot see this team putting in more than the “expected” level of effort. I like the Rams to win this one and cover the spread.
My pick: Rams -6.5 (-110)