If you’re making Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs DFS picks for Sunday in Week 1, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations. The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Cardinals vs. Chiefs DFS picks
Today we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
[bet-promo id=”149453″ ]Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Cardinals DFS considerations
Arizona will be without DeAndre Hopkins Sunday and for the following five contests. Marquise Brown will serve as the de facto No. 1 wideout, though his hype could be higher than what he delivers. Rondale Moore is the X-factor, as his emergence could upend what initially looks somewhat like a Brown-funneled passing attack.
Meanwhile, remember when Kyler Murray was a top-two fantasy QB in last season’s first two games? 700+ total yards and nine TDs are no joke. Few QBs have Murray’s weekly ceiling. Even without Hopkins (and Christian Kirk), he has the personnel to crack 250 yards and two scores. The rest will be situational (e.g., whether he or James Conner runs it in from the goal line).
Speaking of Conner, can he come close to replicating last year’s surprisingly dominant output? Eno Benjamin could be the wild card. Conner has bell-cow chops, and at the same time, the team might want to keep the 27-year-old’s load under 250 touches, or 14-15 per game. If at least 2-3 are coming through the air, he’ll have a great floor today. The challenge is that we don’t yet know what role Benjamin (or another backup) will have.
Chiefs DFS considerations
I picked the Chiefs to finish last in the AFC West, and I know what most of you are thinking. However, their schedule is brutal, the backfield could be subpar, Travis Kelce has peaked (or is on a slow decline), and the receiving corps lacks a true No. 1. So which WR will step up for Patrick Mahomes? And can Clyde Edwards-Helaire put to rest any questions about the Chiefs’ ability to run the ball in 2022?
The favored Chiefs are hardly locks to win this one, and their offense could struggle (relatively speaking). I’ve believed all summer that Mahomes is overvalued in betting and fantasy, and not surprisingly, his DFS price seems too high. I think Kansas City will feel the need to establish the run on the road, knowing they’ll need to find the right combination of RBs to have a shot at yet another divisional title.
Recommended DFS lineup
In my Premier Fantasy Football League draft on Wednesday, I surprised myself by taking Brown. While researching for this column, I became more convinced than ever that to win these first six weeks, Brown might be that golden ticket. (Although I’ll try to sell high after Week 5.)
So I’m recommending him ($8,600 normally, $12,900 as Captain) in this top-heavy DFS lineup’s Captain slot. I’m also rolling with Kyler Murray ($11,600), Patrick Mahomes ($12,200), and Travis Kelce ($10,000).
My read of this game is that it’s almost impossible to know which Chiefs wideout(s) will step up. Skyy Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling cost between $5,000 and $8,000. Choosing one would mean swapping out one of my top guys. It’s not worth the risk.
That leaves $3,300 for only two players. But do not fear. These final spots are going to preseason hero Isiah Pacheco ($2,000) and Maxx Williams ($600).
In the belief that Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be phased out at least a bit during this one, Pacheco has a good shot at 3+ receptions, which is all we need to justify his cheap price. Meanwhile, with Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz potentially less than 100% healthy, I’m betting that the experienced Williams will see enough snaps (16+) to give him a solid shot at 5+ DFS points.