For much of the season, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year felt like a foregone conclusion. As long as Damar Hamlin was on an NFL roster and playing at all, he was going to win it. However, Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco’s recent play has shifted the betting odds considerably.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Can Joe Flacco Actually Win It?
A little over a month ago, Flacco wasn’t even an option to bet on for Comeback Player of the Year because he wasn’t in the NFL. Before Thursday Night Football, Hamlin remained the heavy favorite — as he’s been all season — at -350 on DraftKings.
After Flacco’s fourth consecutive stellar performance since taking over as the Browns’ starting quarterback, his odds plummeted from +400 to +110, with Hamlin now -175.
It’s difficult to analyze this award because, unlike other NFL awards, it’s clearly not an overly serious one. Hamlin’s story is an incredible one, and no one would complain if he were to win it. The man was revived on an NFL field and made it back into actual games the following season.
With that said, if the award is to be based on performance, Hamlin simply hasn’t played much. He would be getting the award purely based on what he overcame, which, of course, was a ton.
From a pure football standpoint, though, Flacco has a compelling case. He was sitting home on his couch for the first three months of the 2023 NFL season. At 38 years old, he couldn’t get a job because NFL teams believed he was no longer good enough to play professional football.
It’s safe to say Flacco has already proven everyone wrong. Not only is he good enough to play in the NFL, he’s good enough to start.
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Flacco is easily a top-half-of-the-league QB right now. He’s still a bit reckless with the football, throwing at least one interception in each of his five starts. Still, the interceptions don’t overshadow the positives.
Flacco’s thrown for 300+ yards in four straight. He’s tossed multiple touchdowns in every start and has won four consecutive games.
When the regular season is over, Flacco will only have six starts to his name. If the voters deem that insufficient to qualify, then he loses. It is what it is. But the odds suggest what he’s done could be enough.
There’s a lot of recency bias when it comes to evaluating the NFL. Flacco is fresh in everyone’s mind, and he just dominated one of the best pass defenses in the NFL in a prime-time game.
The Browns are headed to the postseason after their victory over the Jets. Flacco has not only carried them there but he’s made a compelling case to be the starter in 2024.
He’s better than Deshaun Watson, and I would go so far as to say the Browns don’t make the playoffs if Watson starts all season. If that’s not enough to win CPOY, then this was simply Hamlin’s award from the get-go.
Who Are the Betting Favorites To Win NFL CPOY?
As things currently stand, only four players have a chance at the award. We have Hamlin as the favorite at -175. Flacco is close behind at +110. Then, there’s Baker Mayfield at +700 and Tua Tagovailoa at +1300.
I don’t think Tagovailoa can realistically win it because what exactly is he coming back from? By no means am I trying to diminish the seriousness of concussions, but Tagovailoa coming back from missing the end of last season due to a concussion is not typically how this award would be handled.
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Mayfield has a far more compelling case after being written off as an NFL-caliber starting quarterback ahead of last season. For him to not only earn a starting role but likely end up leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a division title, is quite impressive.
For my money, Mayfield offers the best value. Unfortunately, the odds suggest he’s not going to win it.
The Bucs winning the NFC South is largely a foregone conclusion at this point. If that was going to be enough for Mayfield to win the award with just two weeks left, it would be reflected in the odds.
I believe this is a two-man race that will come down to whether anything that happened this season was ever going to matter. If it’s not Hamlin, it will most likely be Flacco.
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