Once upon a time, Cam Akers was actually set to be a top-10 overall pick in fantasy football drafts. He then tore his Achilles and has spent the two seasons since trying to regain his pre-injury status. Now fully healthy and with minimal backfield competition, could this be the year Akers finally cracks that top 10?
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Does Cam Akers Have Top-10 Fantasy Upside?
Entering the 2021 season, I was so excited to draft Akers. Since I very frequently pick toward the back half, Akers was perfectly queued up to be someone I had pretty heavy exposure to. He closed his rookie year strong and was poised to take a huge step forward as a sophomore. Then, he tore his Achilles.
While Akers was able to make a miraculous recovery after just 5.5 months, the version of Akers we saw on the Los Angeles Rams‘ Super Bowl run hardly resembled the explosive rookie we were excited about.
It goes without saying no one expected Akers to look like himself that soon after returning, but it was still jarring to see him so slow and ineffective in actual games.
Akers returning at all was enough to give fantasy managers a reasonable sense of optimism heading into the 2022 season. Even though he was poised to once again be the lead back, the presences of Darrell Henderson Jr. and Sony Michel — plus Akers’ Achilles — kept his ADP from creeping up too high.
Fantasy managers who took a shot on Akers anywhere from Rounds 3-5, depending on when you drafted, were sorely disappointed. He averaged just 9.5 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the RB35. The funny part about that average, which in itself was below ADP expectation, is it was far, far worse than the number suggests.
From Weeks 1-12, Akers averaged 3.9 ppg. Your eyes do not deceive you. He was not the lead back, never playing more than 50% of the snaps over that span. You could argue there was only a single week in which Akers was worth starting, and only as a desperation Flex. In most leagues, he was dropped, and rightfully so.
Then, a switch flipped. In Week 13, the Rams recommitted to Akers as their lead back. He didn’t just lead the backfield in snaps — he dominated. In Week 18, he actually played 100% of the snaps, and his average over the final six games was around 80%.
No one saw this coming. Akers went from a guy who was beyond irrelevant to a league winner seemingly overnight. Over that span, he averaged 17.7 ppg. Only four running backs were better.
Normally, this is the part of the article where I try and construct a path by which the player can reach the top 10. For Akers, I don’t have to. We already saw it.
The threshold for top-10 production is in the range of 16-17 points per game. As mentioned, we saw Akers average 17.7 ppg over a six-game span, but can he sustain that over a full season? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, Akers has the talent and opportunity to be a top-10 fantasy RB in 2023.
How Likely Is Akers To Finish Inside the Top 10?
My projections have Akers averaging 15.1 ppg and finishing as the RB18. While eight spots seems like a steep hill to climb, we’re only talking a difference of 1-2 points on average. That’s just a few more receptions and a couple more touchdowns. When framed in that context, it’s actually quite doable.
However, just because it’s possible doesn’t mean it’s likely. The Rams were a very bad offense last season. They scored just 31 offensive touchdowns, and a whopping 15 of them were on the ground. We would expect that ratio to skew more heavily toward the pass this season.
The good news is that can happen, and L.A. can still maintain their ground-scoring prowess by virtue of scoring more touchdowns overall. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are back healthy. If they can stay on the field, that will boost this offense’s overall efficiency.
Last season, with Baker Mayfield at quarterback and the team’s starting receivers of Ben Skowronek and Van Jefferson, Akers was able to thrive down the stretch. Simply having Stafford and Kupp on the field is an immediate upgrade, raising Akers’ floor.
Most important, though, is opportunity. In fantasy football, volume is king, and Akers proved he can be a three-down back last season. Moreover, the Rams’ RB depth chart sure indicates he may be one once again.
Behind Akers, Los Angeles has 2022 fifth-rounder Kyren Williams, 2023 sixth-rounder Zach Evans, Michel, and 2022 UDFA Ronnie Rivers. Not a single one of these players poses any serious threat to Akers.
I don’t love drafting running backs in the dead zone (second half of Round 3 through the end of Round 6), but that doesn’t mean you should never do it. Macro trends are important, but individual players matter as well. After all, it’s the specific player you’re considering that is going to potentially be on your roster.
Akers is still just 24 years old. His burst and agility sure looked to have returned over the latter part of the 2022 season. If the Rams improve on offense, as expected, and Akers maintains the lead-back role, I’m very optimistic he can outperform his RB21 ADP.
I have Akers ranked RB17, which is above consensus. Although he typically goes in a spot where I take wide receivers or possibly an elite quarterback, if I do take a running back around that spot, Akers is a guy I’m seriously eyeing up. A top-10 finish is not necessarily likely, but it’s far more plausible than his ADP suggests.