The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Ridley ever reach the borderline-elite range again, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Calvin Ridley’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It might be time we start handing out an award for being either the most polarizing player or whoever is the biggest wild card for fantasy football in a given year. Since this is my award, I get to vote, and I’m putting my vote in for Ridley as one of the biggest wild cards for the 2023 fantasy football season.
Last we saw, Ridley was elite — or at least was on the cusp of joining the elite ranks. Between 2018 and 2019, he saw 185 targets, hauling in 127 receptions for 1,687 yards with 27 touchdowns.
He truly flourished and showed his upside in 2020, when he became the No. 1 for the Atlanta Falcons and saw a target volume that matched. Out of the shadow of Julio Jones, Ridley was the WR5 in 2021, averaging 18.8 PPR/game, catching 90 of his 143 targets for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns.
But the fact that I have to go back and reference 2020 stats to talk about Ridley and make a case for him in 2023 is the problem. After playing five games in the 2021 season, Ridley stepped away from football to focus on his mental health. During that same timeframe, he was suspended by the NFL due violation surrounding the league’s policies on sports gambling.
What does Ridley even look like now? This is not the same as Jameson Williams, who, when he comes back from suspension, will still be one of the younger players in the league. Ridley will be closing on 29 years old, and he hasn’t stepped on the football field since Oct 24, 2021.
Because of this, you’re likely not going to see me make any definitive claims on Ridley, given there are so many questions surrounding his situation in Jacksonville. But, if you are someone who is buying into his skill set and the potential potency of the Jaguars’ offense, buckle up because this could be really fun to watch.
Ridley Is a High-Upside, Low-Floor Gamble in 2023
Trevor Lawrence had his much-anticipated break out in his sophomore year, which was almost his first season, as I don’t even want to count the circus that was the Urban Meyer era.
Part of what helped Lawrence was his connection with Christian Kirk, who Jacksonville brought in to be their No. 1 last year. Kirk sat career highs across the board as the WR18 in points per game. He had the 24th-highest target share at 23.2% and sat 15th in overall targets at 133.
Kirk was also 12th in deep targets, fifth in red-zone targets, and 22nd in yards per route run as he recorded 1,108 yards on his 84 receptions with eight touchdowns.
That’s the competition for Ridley. If he can surpass Kirk on the depth chart, this is the type of role he could see because, as we’ve seen in the past, Ridley has even more upside on a per-target basis.
I’m not the only one who thinks he can get back to form, as even Davante Adams came out and called Ridley a top-five receiver in the NFL, and according to his reports, Jaguars OC Press Taylor has been really impressed with Ridley in camp.
While Kirk is an underrated receiver, I grade Ridley higher. Although I do expect there to be some slight rust early on, the upside is undeniable. My only hold-up is if we would need an injury to see this happen.
Ridley and Kirk likely will be very similar in terms of the overall workload, and my projections currently have Ridley sitting around 110-115 targets with 70-75 receptions, 875-900 yards, and five touchdowns. It’s nearly an identical projection to what I have given Kirk.
The Jaguars did appear extremely pass-happy; however, they threw on just 61% of their plays, which was 17th-most in the NFL, and 0% above expectation. If an injury were to happen to Kirk, Ridley would go ballistic.
But so long as they’re both on the field, Ridley and Kirk will both be in the WR3 range and until we see what happens on the field, it will likely be challenging to determine the WR to roster on a given week.
Should You Draft Calvin Ridley This Year?
This, in my opinion, is where things get a little bit spicy. I don’t think either player will run away from the other, but if someone did, it would be Ridley, given his explosiveness and better skill set as a deep-ball receiver.
Based on early ADP reporting, that is the case for other fantasy managers, as Ridley is currently being drafted as the WR17 with ADP, which places him right around pick 40. In contrast, Kirk is the WR28-WR30 and goes between pick 70 and 75 in ADP.
While I understand the optimism for Ridley, that’s a high price to pay, considering he’s going ahead of Drake London, Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman Jr., Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins.
Are we that positive Ridley is going to recapture his old form immediately? That’s what you’re betting on by selecting him as an upper-half WR2 and a top-50 player.
I’m still not convinced he is 20 selections better than Kirk. If this ADP holds, which it would not surprise me if it did, I’m not sure how many shares of Ridley I am going to have outside of Best Ball. While I am excited to see him on the field and think he will play well, that’s a lot of draft capital riding on arguably the biggest unknown of the year.
Ridley might be out of the picture, depending on how risk-averse you are. If that’s the case, wait two rounds and draft Kirk and possibly get the exact same player who already has a rapport with his superstar QB.