Calvin Ridley has another opportunity to prove that he’s an elite fantasy football wide receiver as he plays the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15.
Calvin Ridley’s fantasy season by the numbers
Ridley has been the WR4 in standard scoring and the WR8 in PPR scoring in his breakout season. He has played in 12 of the 13 games that the Atlanta Falcons have played this season and has been targeted 108 times so far. He’s managed to convert those targets into 67 receptions for 1,029 yards while also scoring eight touchdowns.
Ridley has taken a huge leap in his third season in the league. He’s averaging 15.4 yards per reception and 85.8 receiving yards per game, both comfortably the highest numbers of his career.
Ridley has dominated in fantasy when Julio Jones has been inactive
Julio Jones’ hamstring injury continues to linger. That means Ridley will have to handle the load in the passing game for the Falcons for another week. Ridley has had big games in three of the four games that Jones has missed this season.
Filling in for a legend
Ridley had five catches on 13 targets for 110 receiving yards in Week 3 against the Chicago Bears. He had eight receptions on 10 targets for 136 yards against the Carolina Panthers in Week 5. Last week, against the Los Angeles Chargers, he had eight catches on 12 targets for 124 yards and a touchdown.
Ridley was less involved in Week 12 with only six receptions on nine targets for 50 yards against the Las Vegas Raiders, but he did haul in a touchdown. The Falcons were also so far ahead that they didn’t need to rely on him as much as they often do.
Jones is one of the greatest WRs of all-time and is certainly the best that the Falcons have ever had. He’ll be 32 by the time the next season starts, though. He hasn’t missed many games in his career, despite often carrying minor injuries, but this season he’s been forced to spend time on the sideline. The four games that he’s missed this season is the same number as he’s missed in the previous six seasons combined.
When Jones is available again, he’ll undoubtedly be a huge part of the offensive game plan. Despite ephemeral touchdown numbers, his status as a red zone threat is unquestioned.
The Falcons will be bringing in a new head coach and general manager in the offseason. Calvin Ridley is auditioning for the chance to be the team’s primary option in the passing game for years to come while also trying to ensure that he gets a lucrative contract from the team after his rookie deal ends.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense isn’t clicking this season
The Atlanta Falcons have possessed one of the best offenses in the league for most of Matt Ryan’s career. Things haven’t gone as planned so far this season, however. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter runs the same offense he did during his first spell with the Falcons, which ended in 2014. The routes are predictable, and defenses are quickly working out that they don’t have to worry about explosive plays.
Ryan by the numbers
Ryan has been under duress for much of the season behind a makeshift offensive line. Unfortunately, things look unlikely to get much better in Week 15 when they face the Buccaneers and a defense with 40 sacks already this season, the fourth-highest number in the league.
Ryan is currently completing just 63.7% of his passes, his lowest mark since 2011. His 3.8% touchdown rate is also considerably down over the last couple of seasons. They’re wasting too much time on an inefficient running game and struggling to convert in the red zone.
Todd Gurley and the rest of the running game hasn’t got going this season. Ryan has been forced to throw the ball 498 times, the third-most in the NFL. While Calvin Ridley has benefited in fantasy due to volume and performs well, his fantasy value will only increase if the offense begins to click.
The Falcons offense doesn’t have the ceiling that it does with fellow wideout Julio Jones there. Matt Ryan has struggled to move the ball at times, but they can still do enough for Ridley to be productive. He’ll continue to be targeted heavily, as he has been every time that he’s been the primary pass catcher.
Should I start Calvin Ridley in Week 15?
We’ve already established that Calvin Ridley will be heavily involved in Week 15. He has been on the injury report this week, getting in only limited practices due to a foot injury. He doesn’t have an injury designation for Week 15, though. The team fully expects him to play on Sunday and doesn’t appear to have any concerns about his health.
The answer is yes
He has already reached 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career. Furthermore, only six wide receivers have scored more touchdowns. His consistency score of 5.61 is also the seventh-highest mark in the league in 2020, illustrating just how consistently Calvin Ridley is putting up high fantasy points.
The Falcons will likely be playing from behind and have to throw the ball to keep up with the Bucs, which will help Ridley. They’re an average pass defense for fantasy purposes, though, and shouldn’t be feared. The Buccaneers and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will be able to focus their attention on Ridley. Yet, they haven’t faced the Falcons this season, and it would be surprising if they were able to limit him too much.
Russell Gage will play his usual role, although he could see more targets with the game script angle. He operates primarily out of the slot, however, and is more of a safety net than a primary option. The Falcons will likely have to throw to keep pace.
Hayden Hurst’s role has almost disappeared in recent weeks. He’s had one or fewer receptions in three of his last four games. He looks unlikely to provide serious competition for targets, even with Jones’ absence. At best, both players are complementary pieces. The Falcons passing game will go through Ridley.
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